KillsRisk
Line
23.5
Pick
UNDER
Projection
25.44
Hit
21.4%
EV+
-62.9%
Edge
+1.9
L10
30%
HeadshotsBetter playRisk
Line
13.5
Pick
UNDER
Projection
12.89
Hit
42.4%
EV+
-26.6%
Edge
-0.6
L10
50%

Rifler · IGL
SHiNE
G2 Ares vs The Last Resort
RISK · UNDER 13.5
≈ L5 12.6 · L20 12.4Risk · Edge -0.6 far below ±2.0HIGHER-ONLY · Over only
Hit rates at 13.5 (Under)
L5
60%
3/5
L10
50%
5/10
L20
63%
12/19
H2H
0%
0/2
Volatility
Low
±3.56
Previous meeting · vs The Last Resort
0/2 hit · avg 14.5 headshots on Maps 1-2
2026-10-14 · CCT Europe 2026 Series 11
Ancient 10-13 · Inferno 13-8 · Split
14
Over 13.5 ✗
2026-09-25 · Hotspawn 10k Showdown: Closed Qualifier
Inferno 13-11 · Cache 13-8 · W
15
Over 13.5 ✗
LAN vs online form
LAN · this match
15.5
1/4 hit at 13.5
Online
11.5
11/15 hit at 13.5
Avg headshots on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Veto confirmed — re-check map order
- Confirm SHiNE is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 13.5
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Bookmaker odds via bo3.gg
underdog · Headshots · Maps 1-2Risk
What to watch · Stays under with 13 HS or fewer (under ~28 kills at 50.8% HS): below 0.643 KPR over ~41 rounds. Main danger: overtime (19.8%) or long close maps add rounds.
Side
Under
Projection
12.89
Raw edge
-0.6
Cons. hit
42.4%
EV+
-26.6%
Rating
1/10
Exp. rounds
41.3
Line
13.5
Verdict
Risk
raw 56.8% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±2 (pref ±2.5)
- Edge -0.6 below ±2.0 minimum
- Recent form (L5/L10) does not lean the same way
- EV+ not positive at current payout
- L10 hit rate ≥ 60%: L10 50.0% at this line
- Standard line: higher_only line pays differently than 3x
- Under risk — team 76% to win; favourites win more rounds and their players usually get more kills.
Sharp checks · 4/6
Big enough sample · 19 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60% · L10 50.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55% · L20 63.2% at this line
Game script fits · OT chance 20% (Unders hate OT)
Standard line · higher_only line pays differently than 3x
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
Projection = 70% model (13.02) + 30% last-5 average
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 13.5 headshots vs line 13.5 (5/10 over). KPR 0.56, HS 51%. Next: vs The Last Resort, LAN.
Strongest: L10 average 13.5 against a 13.5 line
Biggest risk: Normal CS2 variance
The read
Signal
MIXED
The call
PASS
Value
NO VALUE
- • Model 12.89 vs line 13.5 → -0.61 (-4.5%)
- • Form L5 60% · L10 50% under this line
- • Heavy favourite (≥70%) → shorter maps (−1.5/map) but easier kills (+8% KPR)
- • Expected 41.3 rounds · 2-0 56.5% · OT 19.8%
Performance (last 38 maps)
Kills/Map
12.18
HS/Map
6.18
K/D
0.82
KPR
0.56
ADR
64.4
KAST
72.1%
HS%
50.8%
Multi-kill
12.9%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Inferno)6.8 · KPR 0.644 · 20.7r
Map 2 (Anubis)6.2 · KPR 0.594 · 20.6r
Required KPR to clear0.643
Base kills (Maps 1-2)25.56
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.+0.27%
Final projected kills25.63
× realistic HS% (50.8%)12.89
Likely HS totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Under 13.5. Model: 56.8% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps24%
~11 HS · 35r79.2%
Normal39.5%
~12 HS · 40r64%
Close maps16.7%
~14 HS · 44r48.8%
Overtime19.8%
~16 HS · 50r30.8%
Match context
Oct 24, 12:00 PMLANHotspawn 10k Showdown
Win chance source: Bookmaker odds via bo3.gg
Heavy favourite (≥70%) → shorter maps (−1.5/map) but easier kills (+8% KPR)
Heads upUnder risk — team 76% to win; favourites win more rounds and their players usually get more kills.
M1 Inferno
20.7r
+7% KPR here
M2 Anubis
20.6r
-1% KPR here
Total
41.3r
2-0 sweep56.5%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)36.5%
Overtime19.8%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)24%
Veto confirmed (bo3.gg): Inferno / Anubis
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 13.5 (Under) · avg 13.5 · hit 5/10 · tap a bar
13.5
Nearby lines
| 11.5 Under | 25.3% | below BE |
| 12.5 Under | 33.7% | below BE |
| 13.5 Under | 42.4% | OFFERED |
| 14.5 Under | 52.7% | below BE |
| 15.5 Under | 57.7% |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 13.5
Line movement
first 11.5→offno change
- Pulled13.5Oct 24, 12:12 PM
- Moved up11.5 → 13.5Oct 23, 11:15 PM
- Moved down13.5 → 11.5Oct 23, 11:14 PM
- Moved up11.5 → 13.5Oct 23, 11:14 PM
- First seen11.5Oct 23, 11:11 PM
Map stats
Inferno
9 maps
Kills
13.7
KPR
0.61
HS%
45.5%
K/D
1.03
Ancient
9 maps
Kills
11.7
KPR
0.5
HS%
50.5%
K/D
0.73
Cache
8 maps
Kills
12.6
KPR
0.55
HS%
53.5%
K/D
0.87
Dust2
5 maps
Kills
10.4
KPR
0.51
HS%
42.3%
K/D
0.68
Mirage
4 maps
Kills
11.2
KPR
0.53
HS%
60%
K/D
0.74
Anubis
3 maps
Kills
12.3
KPR
0.54
HS%
62.2%
K/D
0.73
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-21 | Illyrians | 8 Ancient 13-7 | 8 Mirage 10-13 | 16 | Split | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-10-19 | mellren | 9 Mirage 13-10 | 4 Ancient 14-16 | 13 | Split | Under ✓ | OT |
| 2026-10-17 | ex-6666 | 8 Inferno 11-13 | 4 Dust2 2-13 | 12 | L | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-16 | BAKS | 2 Cache 3-13 | 6 Inferno 16-13 | 8 | Split | Under ✓ | OTBO |
| 2026-10-14 | The Last Resort | 3 Ancient 10-13 | 11 Inferno 13-8 | 14 | Split | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-10-09 | Sangal | 10 Anubis 13-16 | 8 Ancient 13-10 | 18 | Split | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-10-09 | NAVI Junior | 5 Anubis 11-13 | 5 Cache 13-5 | 10 | Split | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-08 | INFINITE | 4 Inferno 13-7 | 10 Ancient 16-14 | 14 | W | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-10-08 | RBLS | 8 Anubis 2-13 | 12 Cache 16-13 | 20 | Split | Over ✗ | OTBO |
| 2026-09-27 | Famalicão | 4 Dust2 7-13 | 6 Ancient 13-4 | 10 | Split | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-26 | STATE | 4 Ancient 9-13 | 13 Cache 19-15 | 17 | Split | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-09-25 | The Last Resort | 9 Inferno 13-11 | 6 Cache 13-8 | 15 | W | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-09-23 | NAVI Junior | 6 Mirage 6-13 | 7 Ancient 16-12 | 13 | Split | Under ✓ | OT |
| 2026-09-23 | INOX Division | 3 Ancient 5-13 | 3 Dust2 6-13 | 6 | L | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-22 | Black Phoenix | 5 Dust2 6-13 | 5 Inferno 7-13 | 10 | L | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-09-21 | Leo | 4 Mirage 7-13 | 6 Cache 13-10 | 10 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-09-20 | QUAZAR | 6 Inferno 13-7 | 3 Cache 6-13 | 9 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-09-20 | Honvéd | 1 Inferno 13-7 | 6 Dust2 16-12 | 7 | W | Under ✓ | OT |
| 2026-09-17 | BAKS | 6 Inferno 13-11 | 7 Cache 9-13 | 13 | Split | Under ✓ |








































































































































































