KillsBetter playRisk
Line
27.5
Pick
OVER
Projection
28.99
Hit
59.2%
EV+
+2.5%
Edge
+1.5
L10
70%
HeadshotsRisk
Line
9.5
Pick
OVER
Projection
9.85
Hit
57.7%
EV+
-0.1%
Edge
+0.3
L10
70%

AWPer
Jorko
Liquid vs MOUZ
RISK · OVER 27.5
BEST OVER · PP 27.5PP27.5UD28.5
≈ L5 29.0 · L20 28.1Risk · Edge +1.5 far below ±3.0
Hit rates at 27.5 (Over)
L5
60%
3/5
L10
70%
7/10
L20
71%
10/14
H2H
100%
1/1
Volatility
Low
±5.97
Previous meeting · vs MOUZ
1/1 hit · avg 33 kills on Maps 1-2
2026-10-24 · PGL Masters Bucharest 2026
Ancient 13-16 · Inferno 16-12 · Split
33
Over 27.5 ✓
LAN vs online form
LAN
28.1
10/14 hit at 27.5
Online · this match
—
no series
Avg kills on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Veto confirmed — re-check map order
- Confirm Jorko is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 27.5
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match schedule
prizepicks · Kills · Maps 1-2Risk
What to watch · Needs 28+ kills: 0.618 KPR over ~45 rounds. Main danger: a fast 2-0 (50%) or blowout (33.3%) cuts rounds.
Side
Over
Projection
28.99
Raw edge
+1.5
Cons. hit
59.2%
EV+
+2.5%
Rating
5.5/10
Exp. rounds
44.5
Line
27.5
Verdict
Risk
Plain model
59.2%
+3.5 →
Learned
62.7%
what past results change
learning 1x
learning 1x
Same-line track record · Over 25.5-29.5
All players · Kills
55.9%331 picks
This player
100%1 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 59.8% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±3 (pref ±4)
- Edge +1.5 below ±3.0 minimum
Sharp checks · 6/6
Big enough sample · 14 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60% · L10 70.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55% · L20 71.4% at this line
Game script fits · 2-0 sweep 50% (Overs need rounds)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
Projection = 70% model (28.98) + 30% last-5 average
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 29.1 kills vs line 25.5 (7/10 over). KPR 0.68, HS 33%. Next: vs MOUZ, LAN/Online unknown.
Strongest: L10 average 29.1 against a 25.5 line
Biggest risk: 36% of recent maps were blowouts (13-5 or worse)
- 36% of recent maps were blowouts (13-5 or worse)
The read
Signal
ALIGNED
The call
PASS
Value
THIN
- • Model 28.99 vs line 27.5 → +1.49 (5.4%)
- • Form L5 60% · L10 70% over this line
- • Win chance unknown — no favourite adjustment
- • Expected 44.5 rounds · 2-0 50% · OT 10.6%
Performance (last 28 maps)
Kills/Map
14.04
HS/Map
4.57
K/D
1.28
KPR
0.68
ADR
66.6
KAST
73.8%
HS%
32.6%
Multi-kill
16.7%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Ancient)14.3 · KPR 0.618 · 23.4r
Map 2 (Inferno)14.7 · KPR 0.705 · 21.1r
Required KPR to clear0.618
Base kills (Maps 1-2)29.34
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.-1.20%
Final projected kills28.98
MOUZ gives up (78 series)-5.6% vs norm
Likely kills totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Over 27.5. Model: 59.8% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps33.3%
~24 kills · 37r25.9%
Normal53.4%
~31 kills · 47r70%
Close maps2.7%
~31 kills · 48r72.5%
Overtime10.6%
~35 kills · 54r89.3%
Match context
Oct 24, 10:00 AMOnline
Win chance source: —
Win chance unknown — no favourite adjustment
M1 Ancient
23.4r
-8% KPR here
M2 Inferno
21.1r
+4% KPR here
Total
44.5r
2-0 sweep50%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)13.3%
Overtime10.6%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)33.3%
Veto confirmed (HLTV): Ancient / Inferno
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 27.5 (Over) · avg 29.1 · hit 7/10 · tap a bar
27.5
Nearby lines
| 25.5 Over | 63.3% | |
| 26.5 Over | 61.5% | |
| 27.5 Over | 59.2% | OFFERED |
| 28.5 Over | 56.1% | below BE |
| 29.5 Over | 50.7% | below BE |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 27.5
Line movement
first 25.5→27.5+2
- Back on board25.5 → 27.5Oct 24, 09:06 PM
- Pulled25.5Oct 24, 09:11 AM
- Back on board25.5 → 25.5Oct 24, 09:10 AM
- Pulled25.5Oct 24, 09:10 AM
- First seen25.5Oct 24, 12:00 AM
Map stats
Inferno
6 maps
Kills
15
KPR
0.72
HS%
26.7%
K/D
1.38
Cache
5 maps
Kills
14.6
KPR
0.73
HS%
46.6%
K/D
1.4
Dust2
5 maps
Kills
11.4
KPR
0.6
HS%
31.6%
K/D
1
Anubis
4 maps
Kills
17
KPR
0.86
HS%
27.9%
K/D
1.74
Mirage
4 maps
Kills
15.2
KPR
0.68
HS%
32.8%
K/D
1.39
Nuke
3 maps
Kills
10.3
KPR
0.67
HS%
19.4%
K/D
1
Ancient
1 maps
Kills
13
KPR
0.45
HS%
53.8%
K/D
0.72
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-24 | MOUZ | 13 Ancient 13-16 | 20 Inferno 16-12 | 33 | Split | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-10-20 | magic | 21 Anubis 10-13 | 15 Dust2 10-13 | 36 | L | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-10-19 | fnatic | 10 Inferno 7-13 | 12 Cache 4-13 | 22 | L | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-16 | Ninjas in Pyjamas | 17 Mirage 13-9 | 12 Nuke 10-13 | 29 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-10-13 | JiJieHao | 14 Mirage 13-11 | 11 Cache 13-2 | 25 | W | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-13 | 100 Thieves | 5 Dust2 0-13 | 11 Inferno 13-8 | 16 | Split | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-13 | BBL | 19 Nuke 9-13 | 16 Mirage 13-8 | 35 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-09-27 | Wildcard | 17 Inferno 13-4 | 15 Anubis 13-9 | 32 | W | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-26 | M80 | 19 Cache 16-13 | 12 Anubis 13-2 | 31 | W | Over ✓ | OTBO |
| 2026-09-25 | NRG | 18 Dust2 13-11 | 14 Mirage 13-10 | 32 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-09-25 | Chicken Coop | 13 Inferno 13-3 | 18 Cache 13-4 | 31 | W | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-08-09 | 1win | 9 Dust2 5-13 | 20 Anubis 13-6 | 29 | Split | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-08-08 | Metizport | 13 Cache 13-9 | 19 Inferno 13-10 | 32 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-08-07 | Dhala | 10 Dust2 13-4 | 0 Nuke 0-1 | 10 | Split | Under ✗ | BO |







































































































































































