KillsBetter playTake
Line
26.5
Pick
OVER
Projection
30.85
Hit
64.6%
EV+
+11.9%
Edge
+4.3
L10
90%
HeadshotsPlayable
Line
14.5
Pick
OVER
Projection
16.53
Hit
61%
EV+
+5.6%
Edge
+2.0
L10
70%
#26Ranked 26 of 277 on the board

Rifler
Xant3r
Nemiga vs BetBoom
PLAYABLE · OVER 14.5
SAME LINE ON ALL APPSPP14.5SL14.5
≈ L5 18.8 · L20 18.1
Hit rates at 14.5 (Over)
L5
80%
4/5
L10
70%
7/10
L20
70%
14/20
H2H
N/A
Volatility
Medium
±5.06
Previous meeting · vs BetBoom
No meeting with BetBoom in his last 20 series.
LAN vs online form
LAN · this match
18.6
3/5 hit at 14.5
Online
17.9
11/15 hit at 14.5
Avg headshots on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm Xant3r is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 15
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 38.5%
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
prizepicks · Headshots · Maps 1-2Playable
What to watch · Needs 15+ HS (~27 kills at 55% HS): 0.638 KPR over ~41 rounds. Main danger: a fast 2-0 (53.5%) or blowout (23.5%) cuts rounds.
Side
Over
Projection
16.53
Raw edge
+2.0
Cons. hit
61%
EV+
+5.6%
Rating
7.4/10
Exp. rounds
41.3
Line
14.5
Verdict
Playable
Plain model
61%
+7.9 →
Learned
68.9%
what past results change
learning 1x
learning 1x
Same-line track record · Over 12.5-16.5
All players · Headshots
61.7%261 picks
This player
100%1 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 65.6% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±2 (pref ±2.5)
- Near the blowout zone — team 38% to win (ideal for Overs: 40-70%).
Clears edge, form, EV+, volatility and every sharp check
Sharp checks · 6/6
Big enough sample · 20 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60% · L10 70.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55% · L20 70.0% at this line
Game script fits · 2-0 sweep 54% (Overs need rounds)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
Projection = 70% model (15.56) + 30% last-5 average
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 19.0 headshots vs line 14.5 (7/10 over). KPR 0.73, HS 55%. Next: vs BetBoom, LAN.
Strongest: L10 average 19.0 against a 14.5 line
Biggest risk: Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
ALIGNED
The call
TAKE OVER
Value
THIN
- • Model 16.53 vs line 14.5 → +2.03 (14.0%)
- • Form L5 80% · L10 70% over this line
- • Underdog (≤40%) → fewer rounds (−1/map) and fewer kills (−6% KPR)
- • Expected 41.3 rounds · 2-0 53.5% · OT 18.9%
Performance (last 40 maps)
Kills/Map
16.45
HS/Map
9.05
K/D
1.12
KPR
0.73
ADR
80.9
KAST
73.4%
HS%
55%
Multi-kill
19.9%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Cache)7.1 · KPR 0.666 · 19.2r
Map 2 (Ancient)8.5 · KPR 0.697 · 22.1r
Required KPR to clear0.638
Base kills (Maps 1-2)28.21
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.+0.30%
Final projected kills28.3
× realistic HS% (55%)16.53
BetBoom gives up (64 series)+5.3% vs norm
Likely HS totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Over 14.5. Model: 65.6% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps23.5%
~14 HS · 35r41.9%
Normal54%
~16 HS · 41r63.9%
Close maps3.6%
~18 HS · 44r73.7%
Overtime18.9%
~20 HS · 50r86.7%
Match context
Oct 25, 11:00 AMLANPGL Masters Bucharest 2026
Win chance source: Polymarket 38.5%
Underdog (≤40%) → fewer rounds (−1/map) and fewer kills (−6% KPR)
Heads upNear the blowout zone — team 38% to win (ideal for Overs: 40-70%).
M1 Cache
19.2r
-3% KPR here
M2 Ancient
22.1r
+2% KPR here
Total
41.3r
2-0 sweep53.5%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)22.5%
Overtime18.9%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)23.5%
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Cache / Ancient
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 14.5 (Over) · avg 19.0 · hit 7/10 · tap a bar
14.5
Nearby lines
| 12.5 Over | 66.2% | |
| 13.5 Over | 64.1% | |
| 14.5 Over | 61% | OFFERED |
| 15.5 Over | 56% | below BE |
| 16.5 Over | 51.6% | below BE |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 15
Line movement
first 14.5→14.5no change
- First seen14.5Oct 25, 12:00 AM
Map stats
Cache
9 maps
Kills
13.9
KPR
0.7
HS%
52%
K/D
1.14
Mirage
8 maps
Kills
18.8
KPR
0.69
HS%
62%
K/D
1
Ancient
8 maps
Kills
17.8
KPR
0.75
HS%
52.1%
K/D
1.15
Dust2
7 maps
Kills
17
KPR
0.75
HS%
52.9%
K/D
1.19
Anubis
4 maps
Kills
14.8
KPR
0.71
HS%
44.1%
K/D
1.2
Nuke
4 maps
Kills
15.8
KPR
0.75
HS%
65.1%
K/D
1.15
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-24 | Legacy | 12 Ancient 25-23 | 8 Dust2 13-8 | 20 | W | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-10-10 | Iberian Soul | 11 Cache 7-13 | 14 Nuke 16-13 | 25 | Split | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-10-08 | Lavked | 8 Anubis 13-5 | 7 Dust2 13-4 | 15 | W | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-04 | Astralis | 5 Mirage 6-13 | 8 Ancient 13-10 | 13 | Split | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-10-03 | Luminosity | 11 Cache 13-11 | 10 Dust2 16-13 | 21 | W | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-10-02 | Alliance | 5 Cache 13-6 | 8 Ancient 13-8 | 13 | W | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-10-01 | FaZe | 18 Mirage 16-12 | 8 Ancient 13-11 | 26 | W | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-09-28 | BET-M | 6 Anubis 13-10 | 8 Nuke 13-6 | 14 | W | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-09-28 | FOKUS | 10 Dust2 13-6 | 16 Mirage 22-20 | 26 | W | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-09-27 | Color | 6 Cache 13-5 | 11 Dust2 9-13 | 17 | Split | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-26 | Black Phoenix | 4 Cache 13-9 | 4 Dust2 9-13 | 8 | Split | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-09-25 | INOX Division | 9 Nuke 13-2 | 18 Ancient 13-10 | 27 | W | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-24 | Just Players | 10 Mirage 13-9 | 9 Cache 13-6 | 19 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-09-14 | Metizport | 11 Mirage 16-14 | 10 Nuke 13-8 | 21 | W | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-09-13 | SINNERS | 3 Cache 13-10 | 8 Mirage 13-10 | 11 | W | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-09-12 | Just Players | 10 Ancient 13-6 | 11 Cache 13-3 | 21 | W | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-10 | K27 | 8 Anubis 10-13 | 13 Mirage 13-9 | 21 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-09-09 | HOTU | 4 Ancient 3-13 | 5 Cache 13-4 | 9 | Split | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-08 | Color | 13 Dust2 16-13 | 4 Anubis 13-6 | 17 | W | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-09-06 | FOKUS | 12 Mirage 16-14 | 6 Ancient 13-3 | 18 | W | Over ✓ | OTBO |








































































































































































