KillsRisk
Line
26
Pick
OVER
Projection
26.73
Hit
54.4%
EV+
-5.9%
Edge
+0.7
L10
60%
HeadshotsBetter playRisk
Line
17
Pick
OVER
Projection
17.59
Hit
55.5%
EV+
-3.9%
Edge
+0.6
L10
60%
#85Ranked 85 of 277 on the board

Rifler
MATYS
G2 vs Aurora
RISK · OVER 17
BEST OVER · PP 17PP17UD17.5SL17.5
≈ L5 18.4 · L20 18.5Risk · Edge +0.6 far below ±2.0 +1
Hit rates at 17 (Over)
L5
60%
3/5
L10
60%
6/10
L20
65%
13/20
H2H
100%
2/2
Volatility
High
±6.28
Previous meeting · vs Aurora
2/2 hit · avg 20.5 headshots on Maps 1-2
2026-08-31 · BLAST Open Fall 2026
Anubis 7-13 · Inferno 19-16 · Split
22
Over 17 ✓
2026-08-26 · BLAST Open Fall 2026
Inferno 13-5 · Anubis 16-12 · W
19
Over 17 ✓
LAN vs online form
LAN · this match
18.5
13/20 hit at 17
Online
—
no series
Avg headshots on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm MATYS is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 17
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 40.5%
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
prizepicks · Headshots · Maps 1-2Risk
What to watch · Needs 18+ HS (~27 kills at 66.5% HS): 0.586 KPR over ~44 rounds. Main danger: a fast 2-0 (53.5%) or blowout (22.9%) cuts rounds.
Side
Over
Projection
17.59
Raw edge
+0.6
Cons. hit
55.5%
EV+
-3.9%
Rating
3.8/10
Exp. rounds
43.6
Line
17
Verdict
Risk
Plain model
55.5%
+8.4 →
Learned
63.9%
what past results change
learning 1x
learning 1x
Same-line track record · Over 15-19
All players · Headshots
59.7%191 picks
This player
100%1 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 53.7% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±2 (pref ±2.5)
- Edge +0.6 below ±2.0 minimum
- EV+ not positive at current payout
- High form volatility
Sharp checks · 6/6
Big enough sample · 20 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60% · L10 60.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55% · L20 65.0% at this line
Game script fits · 2-0 sweep 54% (Overs need rounds)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
Projection = 70% model (17.24) + 30% last-5 average
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 19.1 headshots vs line 16.5 (6/10 over). KPR 0.65, HS 67%. Next: vs Aurora, LAN.
Strongest: L10 average 19.1 against a 16.5 line
Biggest risk: Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
ALIGNED
The call
PASS
Value
NO VALUE
- • Model 17.59 vs line 17 → +0.59 (3.5%)
- • Form L5 60% · L10 60% over this line
- • Slight lean (40–45% / 65–70%) → no adjustment
- • Expected 43.6 rounds · 2-0 53.5% · OT 16.7%
Performance (last 40 maps)
Kills/Map
13.9
HS/Map
9.25
K/D
0.94
KPR
0.65
ADR
70.3
KAST
74%
HS%
66.5%
Multi-kill
16.1%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Ancient)8.8 · KPR 0.628 · 21r
Map 2 (Dust2)8.5 · KPR 0.562 · 22.6r
Required KPR to clear0.586
Base kills (Maps 1-2)25.89
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.+0.13%
Final projected kills25.92
× realistic HS% (66.5%)17.59
Aurora gives up (91 series)-0.5% vs norm
Likely HS totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Over 17. Model: 53.7% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps22.9%
~15 HS · 37r28.4%
Normal46.3%
~17 HS · 43r45.2%
Close maps14.1%
~19 HS · 47r55.4%
Overtime16.7%
~21 HS · 53r69.9%
Match context
Oct 25, 02:00 PMLANPGL Masters Bucharest 2026
Win chance source: Polymarket 40.5%
Slight lean (40–45% / 65–70%) → no adjustment
Game scriptIdeal Over range — team 40% to win (40-70%), competitive maps expected.
M1 Ancient
21r
-4% KPR here
M2 Dust2
22.6r
-14% KPR here
Total
43.6r
2-0 sweep53.5%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)30.8%
Overtime16.7%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)22.9%
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Ancient / Dust2
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 17 (Over) · avg 19.1 · hit 6/10 · tap a bar
17
Nearby lines
| 15 Over | 61.1% | |
| 16 Over | 58.6% | |
| 17 Over | 55.5% | OFFERED |
| 18 Over | 51.8% | below BE |
| 19 Over | 48.1% | below BE |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 17
Line movement
first 16.5→17+0.5
- Moved up16.5 → 17Oct 25, 04:12 AM
- First seen16.5Oct 25, 12:00 AM
Map stats
Ancient
12 maps
Kills
13
KPR
0.62
HS%
65.4%
K/D
0.91
Dust2
8 maps
Kills
12.1
KPR
0.53
HS%
67%
K/D
0.86
Inferno
6 maps
Kills
17.3
KPR
0.78
HS%
67.3%
K/D
1.25
Anubis
5 maps
Kills
14.4
KPR
0.63
HS%
65.3%
K/D
0.91
Mirage
4 maps
Kills
17.8
KPR
0.72
HS%
66.2%
K/D
0.97
Cache
4 maps
Kills
10
KPR
0.49
HS%
67.5%
K/D
0.7
Nuke
1 maps
Kills
16
KPR
0.67
HS%
75%
K/D
1.23
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-24 | Natus Vincere | 12 Nuke 11-13 | 12 Dust2 19-22 | 24 | L | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-10-06 | PARIVISION | 9 Ancient 7-13 | 11 Anubis 13-9 | 20 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-10-05 | ShindeN | 12 Dust2 13-6 | 12 Ancient 13-9 | 24 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-10-04 | 1win | 6 Dust2 11-13 | 9 Ancient 13-1 | 15 | Split | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-03 | Natus Vincere | 3 Cache 7-13 | 6 Inferno 4-13 | 9 | L | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-13 | Legacy | 5 Ancient 9-13 | 9 Mirage 10-13 | 14 | L | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-09-12 | BetBoom | 15 Mirage 7-13 | 13 Anubis 16-13 | 28 | Split | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-09-11 | FURIA | 16 Ancient 16-14 | 7 Dust2 13-3 | 23 | W | Over ✓ | OTBO |
| 2026-09-10 | 5star | 16 Inferno 13-9 | 8 Ancient 13-4 | 24 | W | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-10 | 9z | 6 Dust2 11-13 | 4 Ancient 13-8 | 10 | Split | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-09-09 | BIG | 6 Cache 8-13 | 9 Mirage 13-7 | 15 | Split | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-09-08 | Astralis | 7 Ancient 9-13 | 14 Mirage 19-17 | 21 | Split | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-09-04 | Falcons | 11 Inferno 6-13 | 8 Dust2 9-13 | 19 | L | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-08-31 | Aurora | 5 Anubis 7-13 | 17 Inferno 19-16 | 22 | Split | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-08-30 | Natus Vincere | 9 Ancient 13-6 | 13 Inferno 13-10 | 22 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-08-28 | Spirit | 7 Dust2 6-13 | 11 Cache 9-13 | 18 | L | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-08-26 | Aurora | 7 Inferno 13-5 | 12 Anubis 16-12 | 19 | W | Over ✓ | OTBO |
| 2026-08-20 | FURIA | 6 Ancient 3-13 | 6 Anubis 13-3 | 12 | Split | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-08-19 | Astralis | 2 Ancient 6-13 | 7 Dust2 13-6 | 9 | Split | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-08-13 | BIG | 7 Cache 13-5 | 15 Ancient 13-16 | 22 | Split | Over ✓ | OTBO |








































































































































































