KillsBetter playTake
Line
25.5
Pick
UNDER
Projection
20.05
Hit
61.6%
EV+
+6.7%
Edge
-5.5
L10
60%
HeadshotsNeutral
Line
15.5
Pick
UNDER
Projection
13.3
Hit
56.5%
EV+
-2.1%
Edge
-2.2
L10
50%

Rifler · IGL
Mercury
TyLoo vs FUT Esports
NEUTRAL · UNDER 15.5
BEST UNDER · UD 15.5PP15UD15.5SL15.5
▲ L5 15.4 · L20 14.7LAN UNDER · 35% hit
Hit rates at 15.5 (Under)
L5
40%
2/5
L10
50%
5/10
L20
50%
8/16
H2H
N/A
Volatility
Medium
±5.06
Previous meeting · vs FUT Esports
No meeting with FUT Esports in his last 16 series.
LAN vs online form
LAN · this match
14.2
5/11 hit at 15.5
Online
15.8
3/5 hit at 15.5
Avg headshots on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm Mercury is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 15.5
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 21.5%
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
underdog · Headshots · Maps 1-2Neutral
What to watch · Stays under with 15 HS or fewer (under ~25 kills at 64% HS): below 0.646 KPR over ~38 rounds. Main danger: overtime (1.4%) or long close maps add rounds.
Side
Under
Projection
13.3
Raw edge
-2.2
Cons. hit
56.5%
EV+
-2.1%
Rating
5.5/10
Exp. rounds
37.5
Line
15.5
Verdict
Neutral
Plain model
56.5%
-8.7 →
Learned
47.8%
what past results change
learning 1x
learning 1x
Same-line track record · Under 13.5-17.5
All players · Headshots
40.7%263 picks
This player
—0 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 66.8% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±2 (pref ±2.5)
- EV+ not positive at current payout
- L10 hit rate ≥ 60%: L10 50.0% at this line
- L20 hit rate ≥ 55%: L20 50.0% at this line
Sharp checks · 4/6
Big enough sample · 16 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60% · L10 50.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55% · L20 50.0% at this line
Game script fits · OT chance 1% (Unders hate OT)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
Projection = 70% model (12.41) + 30% last-5 average
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 15.3 headshots vs line 15.5 (5/10 over). KPR 0.58, HS 64%. Next: vs FUT, LAN.
Strongest: L10 average 15.3 against a 15.5 line
Biggest risk: 31% of recent maps were blowouts (13-5 or worse)
- 31% of recent maps were blowouts (13-5 or worse)
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
PARTIAL
The call
SMALL EDGE ONLY
Value
NO VALUE
- • Model 13.3 vs line 15.5 → -2.2 (-14.2%)
- • Form L5 40% · L10 50% under this line
- • Underdog (≤40%) → fewer rounds (−1/map) and fewer kills (−6% KPR)
- • Expected 37.5 rounds · 2-0 59.5% · OT 1.4%
Performance (last 32 maps)
Kills/Map
11.47
HS/Map
7.34
K/D
0.9
KPR
0.58
ADR
64.3
KAST
74.8%
HS%
64%
Multi-kill
14.4%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Mirage)5.9 · KPR 0.525 · 18r
Map 2 (Inferno)6.5 · KPR 0.539 · 19.5r
Required KPR to clear0.646
Base kills (Maps 1-2)19.94
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.-2.81%
Final projected kills19.38
× realistic HS% (64%)13.3
FUT Esports gives up (43 series)+1.4% vs norm
Likely HS totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Under 15.5. Model: 66.8% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps38.3%
~11 HS · 32r83.3%
Normal49.7%
~15 HS · 41r60.8%
Close maps10.6%
~14 HS · 41r61.8%
Overtime1.4%
~17 HS · 47r45.2%
Match context
Oct 24, 07:00 AMLANPGL Masters Bucharest 2026
Win chance source: Polymarket 21.5%
Underdog (≤40%) → fewer rounds (−1/map) and fewer kills (−6% KPR)
Game scriptIdeal Under range — team 22% to win; the lower the %, the fewer rounds he wins and kills he gets.
M1 Mirage
18r
-3% KPR here
M2 Inferno
19.5r
-1% KPR here
Total
37.5r
2-0 sweep59.5%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)12%
Overtime1.4%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)38.3%
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Mirage / Inferno
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 15.5 (Under) · avg 15.3 · hit 5/10 · tap a bar
15.5
Nearby lines
| 13.5 Under | 46.1% | below BE |
| 14.5 Under | 50.6% | below BE |
| 15.5 Under | 56.5% | OFFERED |
| 16.5 Under | 59.7% | |
| 17.5 Under | 61.9% |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 15.5
Line movement
first 15.5→15.5no change
- First seen15.5Oct 23, 12:41 PM
Map stats
Mirage
10 maps
Kills
10.1
KPR
0.55
HS%
67.3%
K/D
0.9
Inferno
8 maps
Kills
11.5
KPR
0.57
HS%
64.1%
K/D
0.88
Ancient
6 maps
Kills
14
KPR
0.71
HS%
57.1%
K/D
1.14
Nuke
4 maps
Kills
13.2
KPR
0.62
HS%
60.4%
K/D
0.96
Cache
2 maps
Kills
10.5
KPR
0.53
HS%
71.4%
K/D
0.75
Overpass
1 maps
Kills
10
KPR
0.43
HS%
80%
K/D
0.59
Anubis
1 maps
Kills
6
KPR
0.3
HS%
83.3%
K/D
0.35
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-05 | M80 | 14 Mirage 13-10 | 6 Cache 7-13 | 20 | Split | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-10-04 | 9z | 6 Nuke 10-13 | 4 Mirage 2-13 | 10 | L | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-03 | Falcons | 5 Mirage 11-13 | 5 Anubis 7-13 | 10 | L | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-09-10 | Alliance | 7 Inferno 11-13 | 12 Ancient 11-13 | 19 | L | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-09-09 | GamerLegion | 11 Ancient 13-7 | 7 Mirage 13-6 | 18 | W | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-09-08 | PARIVISION | 11 Inferno 11-13 | 4 Ancient 4-13 | 15 | L | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-02 | DEPO | 6 Mirage 13-2 | 7 Inferno 13-2 | 13 | W | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-02 | Kaleido | 13 Mirage 13-5 | 8 Inferno 13-9 | 21 | W | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-08-14 | Lynn Vision | 4 Nuke 8-13 | 2 Inferno 4-13 | 6 | L | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-07-12 | Lynn Vision | 8 Ancient 13-6 | 13 Inferno 10-13 | 21 | Split | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-07-11 | The Huns | 7 Ancient 13-9 | 5 Mirage 13-2 | 12 | W | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-07-10 | The MongolZ Academy | 6 Ancient 13-3 | 6 Mirage 13-1 | 12 | W | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-07-09 | 9z | 11 Nuke 9-13 | 7 Mirage 13-7 | 18 | Split | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-07-03 | EYEBALLERS | 11 Nuke 13-6 | 9 Cache 13-7 | 20 | W | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-06-09 | Legacy | 1 Mirage 7-13 | 3 Inferno 4-13 | 4 | L | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-06-08 | 9z | 8 Overpass 10-13 | 8 Inferno 6-13 | 16 | L | Over ✗ |







































































































































































