KillsRisk
Line
26
Pick
OVER
Projection
28.23
Hit
60%
EV+
+4.0%
Edge
+2.2
L10
80%
HeadshotsBetter playLean
Line
14
Pick
OVER
Projection
16.3
Hit
62.4%
EV+
+8.2%
Edge
+2.3
L10
70%

Rifler
jL
Vitality vs 9z
RISK · OVER 26
BEST OVER · PP 26PP26UD27.5
≈ L5 28.0 · L20 28.1Risk · Edge +2.2 far below ±3.0
Hit rates at 26 (Over)
L5
60%
3/5
L10
80%
8/10
L20
70%
14/20
H2H
100%
1/1
Volatility
Medium
±7.77
Previous meeting · vs 9z
1/1 hit · avg 38 kills on Maps 1-2
2026-08-29 · BLAST Open Fall 2026
Dust2 13-2 · Nuke 13-6 · W
38
Over 26 ✓
LAN vs online form
LAN · this match
28.2
13/19 hit at 26
Online
28
1/1 hit at 26
Avg kills on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm jL is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 26
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 84.5%
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
prizepicks · Kills · Maps 1-2Risk
What to watch · Needs 27+ kills: 0.634 KPR over ~41 rounds. Main danger: a fast 2-0 (66.5%) or blowout (34.8%) cuts rounds.
Side
Over
Projection
28.23
Raw edge
+2.2
Cons. hit
60%
EV+
+4.0%
Rating
5.5/10
Exp. rounds
41
Line
26
Verdict
Risk
Plain model
60%
+8 →
Learned
68%
what past results change
learning 1x
learning 1x
Same-line track record · Over 24-28
All players · Kills
56.7%201 picks
This player
—0 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 61.3% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±3 (pref ±4)
- Edge +2.2 below ±3.0 minimum
- Game script fits: 2-0 sweep 66% (Overs need rounds)
- Blowout win risk — team 84% to win. A 13-3 stomp means fewer rounds to farm kills; still playable.
Sharp checks · 5/6
Big enough sample · 20 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60% · L10 80.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55% · L20 70.0% at this line
Game script fits · 2-0 sweep 66% (Overs need rounds)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
Projection = 70% model (28.33) + 30% last-5 average
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 30.6 kills vs line 27.5 (8/10 over). KPR 0.70, HS 56%. Next: vs 9z, LAN.
Strongest: L10 average 30.6 against a 27.5 line
Biggest risk: High 2-0 sweep chance (66%) — fewer total rounds
- High 2-0 sweep chance (66%) — fewer total rounds
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
PARTIAL
The call
PASS
Value
THIN
- • Model 28.23 vs line 26 → +2.23 (8.6%)
- • Form L5 60% · L10 80% over this line
- • Heavy favourite (≥70%) → shorter maps (−1.5/map) but easier kills (+8% KPR)
- • Expected 41 rounds · 2-0 66.5% · OT 14.4%
Performance (last 40 maps)
Kills/Map
14.07
HS/Map
7.95
K/D
1.04
KPR
0.69
ADR
74.5
KAST
75.3%
HS%
56.5%
Multi-kill
17.3%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Nuke)14.5 · KPR 0.705 · 20.8r
Map 2 (Dust2)13.9 · KPR 0.697 · 20.2r
Required KPR to clear0.634
Base kills (Maps 1-2)28.74
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.-1.44%
Final projected kills28.33
9z gives up (77 series)-2.7% vs norm
Likely kills totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Over 26. Model: 61.3% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps34.8%
~24 kills · 34r31.1%
Normal42.7%
~30 kills · 43r64.8%
Close maps8.1%
~30 kills · 44r68.5%
Overtime14.4%
~34 kills · 50r85.2%
Match context
Oct 24, 01:30 PMLANPGL Masters Bucharest 2026
Win chance source: Polymarket 84.5%
Heavy favourite (≥70%) → shorter maps (−1.5/map) but easier kills (+8% KPR)
Heads upBlowout win risk — team 84% to win. A 13-3 stomp means fewer rounds to farm kills; still playable.
M1 Nuke
20.8r
-6% KPR here
M2 Dust2
20.2r
-7% KPR here
Total
41r
2-0 sweep66.5%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)22.5%
Overtime14.4%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)34.8%
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Nuke / Dust2
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 26 (Over) · avg 30.6 · hit 8/10 · tap a bar
26
Nearby lines
| 24 Over | 63.2% | |
| 25 Over | 61.8% | |
| 26 Over | 60% | OFFERED |
| 27 Over | 57.8% | |
| 28 Over | 53.2% | below BE |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 26
Line movement
first 27.5→26-1.5
- Back on board28.5 → 26Oct 24, 09:06 PM
- Pulled28.5Oct 24, 01:55 PM
- Moved up27.5 → 28.5Oct 24, 05:48 AM
- First seen27.5Oct 24, 12:00 AM
Map stats
Nuke
10 maps
Kills
14.4
KPR
0.64
HS%
59.7%
K/D
0.96
Dust2
8 maps
Kills
13.6
KPR
0.63
HS%
59.6%
K/D
0.99
Mirage
7 maps
Kills
12.9
KPR
0.66
HS%
56.7%
K/D
0.97
Inferno
4 maps
Kills
12.5
KPR
0.6
HS%
62%
K/D
1.22
Overpass
4 maps
Kills
13.8
KPR
0.75
HS%
52.7%
K/D
1.28
Ancient
3 maps
Kills
17.3
KPR
0.66
HS%
48.1%
K/D
1.08
Cache
2 maps
Kills
17
KPR
0.64
HS%
55.9%
K/D
1
Anubis
2 maps
Kills
14.5
KPR
0.71
HS%
41.4%
K/D
1.21
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-05 | MOUZ | 10 Dust2 11-13 | 7 Mirage 7-13 | 17 | L | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-09-04 | FURIA | 5 Nuke 6-13 | 17 Cache 13-11 | 22 | Split | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-08-31 | FUT | 16 Anubis 13-7 | 13 Dust2 13-8 | 29 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-08-30 | Legacy | 20 Nuke 16-14 | 14 Mirage 9-13 | 34 | Split | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-08-29 | 9z | 21 Dust2 13-2 | 17 Nuke 13-6 | 38 | W | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-08-27 | Inner Circle | 13 Anubis 8-13 | 17 Cache 13-16 | 30 | L | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-07-19 | Kosovo | 11 Inferno 13-11 | 17 Mirage 13-6 | 28 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-05-24 | MOUZ | 21 Overpass 13-3 | 10 Ancient 13-1 | 31 | W | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-05-23 | Falcons | 18 Mirage 13-7 | 12 Dust2 7-13 | 30 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-05-22 | B8 | 17 Overpass 13-8 | 30 Ancient 22-20 | 47 | W | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-05-22 | MOUZ | 10 Nuke 13-4 | 10 Overpass 13-7 | 20 | W | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-05-21 | M80 | 7 Overpass 13-3 | 9 Inferno 10-13 | 16 | Split | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-05-21 | NRG | 12 Ancient 10-13 | 16 Nuke 13-6 | 28 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-05-17 | MOUZ | 5 Mirage 13-2 | 23 Inferno 13-7 | 28 | W | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-05-16 | MOUZ | 6 Dust2 3-13 | 9 Nuke 2-13 | 15 | L | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-05-15 | MOUZ | 13 Dust2 13-11 | 17 Nuke 13-8 | 30 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-05-12 | MOUZ | 15 Dust2 13-11 | 22 Nuke 19-15 | 37 | W | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-05-11 | MOUZ | 14 Nuke 10-13 | 7 Inferno 13-4 | 21 | Split | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-05-10 | MOUZ | 19 Dust2 14-16 | 13 Mirage 13-10 | 32 | Split | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-05-09 | MOUZ | 14 Nuke 16-12 | 16 Mirage 4-13 | 30 | Split | Over ✓ | OTBO |







































































































































































