KillsRisk
Line
29.5
Pick
OVER
Projection
30.5
Hit
56.5%
EV+
-2.2%
Edge
+1.0
L10
70%
HeadshotsBetter playLean
Line
15.5
Pick
OVER
Projection
17.41
Hit
59.4%
EV+
+2.9%
Edge
+1.9
L10
60%

Rifler
deemO
Yawara Esports vs Grêmio
RISK · OVER 29.5
≈ L5 30.2 · L20 30.0Risk · Edge +1.0 far below ±3.0 +1
Hit rates at 29.5 (Over)
L5
80%
4/5
L10
70%
7/10
L20
60%
12/20
H2H
100%
2/2
Volatility
High
±10.79
Previous meeting · vs Grêmio
2/2 hit · avg 32 kills on Maps 1-2
2026-10-08 · ESL Challenger League Season 52: South America - Cup 3
Nuke 19-16 · Mirage 13-10 · W
30
Over 29.5 ✓
2026-09-25 · ESL Challenger League Season 52: South America - Cup 2
Nuke 13-9 · Mirage 11-13 · Split
34
Over 29.5 ✓
LAN vs online form
LAN
28
3/5 hit at 29.5
Online · this match
30.7
9/15 hit at 29.5
Avg kills on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm deemO is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 29.5
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 68.5%
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
underdog · Kills · Maps 1-2Risk
What to watch · Needs 30+ kills: 0.67 KPR over ~44 rounds. Main danger: a fast 2-0 (75%) or blowout (27.8%) cuts rounds.
Side
Over
Projection
30.5
Raw edge
+1.0
Cons. hit
56.5%
EV+
-2.2%
Rating
4.2/10
Exp. rounds
44
Line
29.5
Verdict
Risk
Plain model
56.5%
-1.5 →
Learned
55%
what past results change
learning 1x
learning 1x
Same-line track record · Over 27.5-31.5
All players · Kills
56%332 picks
This player
0%1 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 53.7% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±3 (pref ±4)
- Edge +1.0 below ±3.0 minimum
- EV+ not positive at current payout
- High form volatility
- Game script fits: 2-0 sweep 75% (Overs need rounds)
Sharp checks · 5/6
Big enough sample · 20 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60% · L10 70.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55% · L20 60.0% at this line
Game script fits · 2-0 sweep 75% (Overs need rounds)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
Projection = 70% model (30.63) + 30% last-5 average
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 30.0 kills vs line 29.5 (7/10 over). KPR 0.66, HS 58%. Next: vs Grêmio, Online.
Strongest: L10 average 30.0 against a 29.5 line
Biggest risk: High 2-0 sweep chance (75%) — fewer total rounds
- High 2-0 sweep chance (75%) — fewer total rounds
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
PARTIAL
The call
PASS
Value
NO VALUE
- • Model 30.5 vs line 29.5 → +1 (3.4%)
- • Form L5 80% · L10 70% over this line
- • Slight lean (40–45% / 65–70%) → no adjustment
- • Expected 44 rounds · 2-0 75% · OT 16.7%
Performance (last 40 maps)
Kills/Map
15
HS/Map
8.65
K/D
1.02
KPR
0.66
ADR
73.1
KAST
73.5%
HS%
57.7%
Multi-kill
16.3%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Anubis)15.2 · KPR 0.7 · 21.9r
Map 2 (Ancient)15.4 · KPR 0.705 · 22.1r
Required KPR to clear0.67
Base kills (Maps 1-2)30.91
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.-0.90%
Final projected kills30.63
Grêmio gives up (54 series)+11.3% vs norm
Likely kills totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Over 29.5. Model: 53.7% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps27.8%
~26 kills · 37r30.7%
Normal41.4%
~31 kills · 44r50.2%
Close maps14.1%
~33 kills · 47r58.6%
Overtime16.7%
~37 kills · 53r72.9%
Match context
Oct 24, 10:00 PMOnline CCT South America 2026 Series 7
Win chance source: Polymarket 68.5%
Slight lean (40–45% / 65–70%) → no adjustment
Game scriptIdeal Over range — team 68% to win (40-70%), competitive maps expected.
M1 Anubis
21.9r
+6% KPR here
M2 Ancient
22.1r
+6% KPR here
Total
44r
2-0 sweep75%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)30.8%
Overtime16.7%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)27.8%
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Anubis / Ancient
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 29.5 (Over) · avg 30.0 · hit 7/10 · tap a bar
29.5
Nearby lines
| 27.5 Over | 59.9% | |
| 28.5 Over | 58.3% | |
| 29.5 Over | 56.5% | OFFERED |
| 30.5 Over | 50.5% | below BE |
| 31.5 Over | 46.3% | below BE |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 29.5
Line movement
first 29.5→offno change
- Pulled30.5Oct 24, 10:00 PM
- Moved up29.5 → 30.5Oct 24, 08:44 PM
- Back on board29.5 → 29.5Oct 24, 12:53 PM
- Pulled29.5Oct 24, 12:53 PM
- First seen29.5Oct 24, 12:52 PM
Map stats
Anubis
14 maps
Kills
15.6
KPR
0.71
HS%
57.8%
K/D
1.17
Ancient
8 maps
Kills
16.1
KPR
0.72
HS%
61.2%
K/D
1.12
Mirage
6 maps
Kills
14.2
KPR
0.63
HS%
60%
K/D
0.89
Dust2
5 maps
Kills
13.6
KPR
0.65
HS%
54.4%
K/D
1
Cache
4 maps
Kills
15.5
KPR
0.65
HS%
54.8%
K/D
0.86
Nuke
3 maps
Kills
12.7
KPR
0.51
HS%
50%
K/D
0.72
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-22 | your end | 19 Anubis 13-8 | 13 Mirage 13-8 | 32 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-10-11 | Galorys | 8 Anubis 4-13 | 5 Ancient 2-13 | 13 | L | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-10 | ex-Keyd Stars | 16 Anubis 13-7 | 15 Dust2 6-13 | 31 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-10-08 | Grêmio | 19 Nuke 19-16 | 11 Mirage 13-10 | 30 | W | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-10-03 | Turma do Pagode | 16 Cache 9-13 | 29 Ancient 18-22 | 45 | L | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-10-01 | BORRACHEIROS | 15 Anubis 13-6 | 15 Ancient 13-9 | 30 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-09-27 | Turma do Pagode | 6 Anubis 5-13 | 20 Ancient 10-13 | 26 | L | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-26 | METANOIA Wolves | 19 Ancient 13-11 | 28 Anubis 14-16 | 47 | Split | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-09-25 | Grêmio | 14 Nuke 13-9 | 20 Mirage 11-13 | 34 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-09-25 | Bounty Hunters | 7 Anubis 8-13 | 5 Nuke 4-13 | 12 | L | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-24 | Bounty Hunters | 22 Anubis 13-6 | 12 Mirage 11-13 | 34 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-09-24 | Juventus | 11 Ancient 13-1 | 11 Anubis 13-3 | 22 | W | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-23 | Galorys | 14 Anubis 13-10 | 17 Ancient 9-13 | 31 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-09-22 | Low Cortisol BR | 16 Mirage 9-13 | 13 Dust2 4-13 | 29 | L | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-17 | Bounty Hunters | 17 Anubis 13-9 | 17 Cache 10-13 | 34 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-09-16 | Bounty Hunters | 19 Cache 13-16 | 22 Anubis 14-16 | 41 | L | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-09-05 | Bounty Hunters | 7 Dust2 9-13 | 10 Cache 8-13 | 17 | L | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-09-03 | paiN Academy | 19 Dust2 13-16 | 30 Anubis 19-16 | 49 | Split | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-08-27 | ODDIK | 3 Anubis 4-13 | 13 Mirage 7-13 | 16 | L | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-08-26 | PEAK | 13 Ancient 13-6 | 14 Dust2 13-5 | 27 | W | Under ✗ | BO |









































































































































































