KillsRisk
Line
32.5
Pick
UNDER
Projection
31.38
Hit
45.8%
EV+
-20.6%
Edge
-1.1
L10
50%
HeadshotsBetter playRisk
Line
10.5
Pick
UNDER
Projection
10.03
Hit
48.3%
EV+
-16.3%
Edge
-0.5
L10
60%

AWPer
aidKiT
Brute vs Infinite Gaming
RISK · UNDER 10.5
SAME LINE ON ALL APPSUD10.5SL10.5
▼ L5 9.6 · L20 10.2Risk · Edge -0.5 far below ±2.0
Hit rates at 10.5 (Under)
L5
60%
3/5
L10
60%
6/10
L20
65%
13/20
H2H
N/A
Volatility
Low
±3.69
Previous meeting · vs Infinite Gaming
No meeting with Infinite Gaming in his last 20 series.
LAN vs online form
LAN
8.6
7/8 hit at 10.5
Online · this match
11.3
6/12 hit at 10.5
Avg headshots on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm aidKiT is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 10.5
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 55.0%
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
underdog · Headshots · Maps 1-2Risk
What to watch · Stays under with 10 HS or fewer (under ~34 kills at 32.3% HS): below 0.746 KPR over ~44 rounds. Main danger: overtime (14.4%) or long close maps add rounds.
Side
Under
Projection
10.03
Raw edge
-0.5
Cons. hit
48.3%
EV+
-16.3%
Rating
1/10
Exp. rounds
43.6
Line
10.5
Verdict
Risk
Plain model
48.3%
-8.6 →
Learned
39.7%
what past results change
learning 1x
learning 1x
Same-line track record · Under 8.5-12.5
All players · Headshots
42.5%106 picks
This player
50%2 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 55% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±2 (pref ±2.5)
- Edge -0.5 below ±2.0 minimum
- Recent form (L5/L10) does not lean the same way
- EV+ not positive at current payout
Sharp checks · 6/6
Big enough sample · 20 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60% · L10 60.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55% · L20 65.0% at this line
Game script fits · OT chance 14% (Unders hate OT)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
Projection = 70% model (10.22) + 30% last-5 average
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 10.5 headshots vs line 10.5 (4/10 over). KPR 0.77, HS 32%. Next: vs INFINITE, Online.
Strongest: L10 average 10.5 against a 10.5 line
Biggest risk: High 2-0 sweep chance (72%) — fewer total rounds
- High 2-0 sweep chance (72%) — fewer total rounds
- 30% of recent maps were blowouts (13-5 or worse)
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
MIXED
The call
PASS
Value
NO VALUE
- • Model 10.03 vs line 10.5 → -0.47 (-4.5%)
- • Form L5 60% · L10 60% under this line
- • Close match (45–65%) → longer maps: +1 round per map
- • Expected 43.6 rounds · 2-0 72.5% · OT 14.4%
Performance (last 40 maps)
Kills/Map
15.78
HS/Map
5.1
K/D
1.3
KPR
0.77
ADR
76.3
KAST
74.7%
HS%
32.3%
Multi-kill
20.8%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Mirage)5.1 · KPR 0.748 · 21.4r
Map 2 (Dust2)5.1 · KPR 0.722 · 22.2r
Required KPR to clear0.746
Base kills (Maps 1-2)32.04
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.-1.27%
Final projected kills31.63
× realistic HS% (32.3%)10.03
Infinite Gaming gives up (70 series)+4.3% vs norm
Likely HS totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Under 10.5. Model: 55% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps30.4%
~8 HS · 37r75.6%
Normal42.9%
~10 HS · 45r55.3%
Close maps12.3%
~11 HS · 47r50.1%
Overtime14.4%
~12 HS · 53r35.6%
Match context
Oct 25, 03:00 PMOnlineNODWIN Clutch Series 13
Win chance source: Polymarket 55.0%
Close match (45–65%) → longer maps: +1 round per map
Game scriptNeutral for Under — team 55% to win (ideal is 40% or lower).
M1 Mirage
21.4r
-3% KPR here
M2 Dust2
22.2r
-6% KPR here
Total
43.6r
2-0 sweep72.5%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)26.7%
Overtime14.4%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)30.4%
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Mirage / Dust2
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 10.5 (Under) · avg 10.5 · hit 6/10 · tap a bar
10.5
Nearby lines
| 8.5 Under | 31.7% | below BE |
| 9.5 Under | 39.9% | below BE |
| 10.5 Under | 48.3% | OFFERED |
| 11.5 Under | 54.5% | below BE |
| 12.5 Under | 60.6% |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 10.5
Line movement
first 10.5→10.5no change
- First seen10.5Oct 25, 12:00 AM
Map stats
Mirage
12 maps
Kills
14.9
KPR
0.74
HS%
28.5%
K/D
1.27
Dust2
8 maps
Kills
14.9
KPR
0.7
HS%
37%
K/D
1.28
Anubis
6 maps
Kills
16
KPR
0.7
HS%
32.3%
K/D
1.25
Inferno
5 maps
Kills
19.2
KPR
0.76
HS%
34.4%
K/D
1.55
Cache
4 maps
Kills
20.5
KPR
0.88
HS%
30.5%
K/D
1.58
Nuke
3 maps
Kills
11.3
KPR
0.69
HS%
29.4%
K/D
1.21
Ancient
2 maps
Kills
12.5
KPR
0.61
HS%
40%
K/D
0.81
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-24 | INOX Division | 2 Nuke 13-3 | 4 Dust2 5-13 | 6 | Split | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-23 | BAKS | 9 Cache 8-13 | 3 Inferno 13-8 | 12 | Split | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-10-21 | Sangal | 5 Nuke 13-4 | 3 Mirage 3-13 | 8 | Split | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-21 | ex-6666 | 5 Anubis 13-8 | 4 Mirage 13-11 | 9 | W | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-10-19 | Phantom | 7 Mirage 13-16 | 6 Inferno 19-16 | 13 | Split | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-10-18 | BET-M | 12 Inferno 13-6 | 5 Mirage 13-5 | 17 | W | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-15 | mellren | 9 Inferno 16-13 | 7 Dust2 13-16 | 16 | Split | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-09-26 | Inner Circle Academy | 6 Anubis 10-13 | 2 Mirage 10-13 | 8 | L | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-09-26 | Four Magic | 1 Mirage 13-1 | 9 Dust2 13-5 | 10 | W | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-25 | aimclub | 4 Mirage 6-13 | 2 Dust2 13-9 | 6 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-09-25 | INFURITY | 3 Inferno 10-13 | 5 Cache 16-12 | 8 | Split | Under ✓ | OT |
| 2026-09-21 | SPARTA | 5 Dust2 13-10 | 4 Mirage 13-7 | 9 | W | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-09-20 | BET-M | 3 Mirage 11-13 | 7 Ancient 9-13 | 10 | L | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-09-17 | QUAZAR | 7 Anubis 16-14 | 8 Mirage 13-8 | 15 | W | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-09-15 | G2 Ares | 3 Ancient 6-13 | 5 Cache 13-11 | 8 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-09-01 | PCIFIC | 6 Dust2 11-13 | 6 Anubis 13-8 | 12 | Split | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-08-08 | Nexus | 6 Cache 7-13 | 3 Anubis 9-13 | 9 | L | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-08-08 | eSuba | 4 Anubis 13-8 | 7 Dust2 13-4 | 11 | W | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-08-07 | NAVI Junior | 5 Mirage 13-4 | 4 Dust2 5-13 | 9 | Split | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-08-02 | 9INE | 5 Mirage 3-13 | 3 Nuke 3-13 | 8 | L | Under ✓ | BO |









































































































































































