KillsBetter playLean
Line
27.5
Pick
OVER
Projection
30.41
Hit
61.8%
EV+
+7.1%
Edge
+2.9
L10
60%
HeadshotsRisk
Line
12.5
Pick
OVER
Projection
13.84
Hit
60%
EV+
+4.0%
Edge
+1.3
L10
50%

Rifler
iM
Natus Vincere vs G2
LEAN · OVER 27.5
BEST OVER · PP 27.5PP27.5UD29.5
≈ L5 29.2 · L20 28.6
Hit rates at 27.5 (Over)
L5
60%
3/5
L10
60%
6/10
L20
65%
13/20
H2H
100%
3/3
Volatility
Low
±5.75
Previous meeting · vs G2
3/3 hit · avg 33 kills on Maps 1-2
2026-10-03 · ESL Pro League Season 24
Cache 13-7 · Inferno 13-4 · W
30
Over 27.5 ✓
2026-08-30 · BLAST Open Fall 2026
Ancient 6-13 · Inferno 10-13 · L
32
Over 27.5 ✓
2026-06-15 · Intel Extreme Masters Cologne Major 2026
Dust2 13-11 · Inferno 14-16 · Split
37
Over 27.5 ✓
LAN vs online form
LAN · this match
28.6
13/20 hit at 27.5
Online
—
no series
Avg kills on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm iM is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 27.5
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 57.5%
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
prizepicks · Kills · Maps 1-2Lean
What to watch · Needs 28+ kills: 0.604 KPR over ~46 rounds. Main danger: a fast 2-0 (51.5%) or blowout (26.7%) cuts rounds.
Side
Over
Projection
30.41
Raw edge
+2.9
Cons. hit
61.8%
EV+
+7.1%
Rating
5.5/10
Exp. rounds
45.5
Line
27.5
Verdict
Lean
Plain model
61.8%
+7.9 →
Learned
69.7%
what past results change
learning 1x
learning 1x
Same-line track record · Over 25.5-29.5
All players · Kills
55.9%331 picks
This player
100%1 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 69.4% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±3 (pref ±4)
- Edge +2.9 below ±3.0 minimum
Sharp checks · 6/6
Big enough sample · 20 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60% · L10 60.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55% · L20 65.0% at this line
Game script fits · 2-0 sweep 52% (Overs need rounds)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
Projection = 70% model (30.93) + 30% last-5 average
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 28.1 kills vs line 29.5 (5/10 over). KPR 0.67, HS 46%. Next: vs G2, LAN.
Strongest: L10 average 28.1 against a 29.5 line
Biggest risk: Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
ALIGNED
The call
PASS
Value
THIN
- • Model 30.41 vs line 27.5 → +2.91 (10.6%)
- • Form L5 60% · L10 60% over this line
- • Close match (45–65%) → longer maps: +1 round per map
- • Expected 45.5 rounds · 2-0 51.5% · OT 7.8%
Performance (last 40 maps)
Kills/Map
14.28
HS/Map
6.6
K/D
1.01
KPR
0.67
ADR
74.4
KAST
74.9%
HS%
46.2%
Multi-kill
14.8%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Inferno)15.8 · KPR 0.72 · 22.2r
Map 2 (Anubis)15.1 · KPR 0.655 · 23.3r
Required KPR to clear0.604
Base kills (Maps 1-2)31.25
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.-1.00%
Final projected kills30.93
G2 gives up (86 series)-2.3% vs norm
Likely kills totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Over 27.5. Model: 69.4% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps26.7%
~26 kills · 38r34.2%
Normal46.6%
~31 kills · 47r74.1%
Close maps18.9%
~33 kills · 49r80.4%
Overtime7.8%
~37 kills · 55r93.3%
Match context
Oct 24, 04:00 PMLANPGL Masters Bucharest 2026
Win chance source: Polymarket 57.5%
Close match (45–65%) → longer maps: +1 round per map
Game scriptIdeal Over range — team 57% to win (40-70%), competitive maps expected.
M1 Inferno
22.2r
+7% KPR here
M2 Anubis
23.3r
-2% KPR here
Total
45.5r
2-0 sweep51.5%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)26.7%
Overtime7.8%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)26.7%
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Inferno / Anubis
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 27.5 (Over) · avg 28.1 · hit 6/10 · tap a bar
27.5
Nearby lines
| 25.5 Over | 65.3% | |
| 26.5 Over | 64.4% | |
| 27.5 Over | 61.8% | OFFERED |
| 28.5 Over | 59.3% | |
| 29.5 Over | 54.2% | below BE |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 27.5
Line movement
first 29.5→27.5-2
- Back on board27.5 → 27.5Oct 24, 10:16 PM
- Pulled27.5Oct 24, 10:15 PM
- Back on board29.5 → 27.5Oct 24, 10:15 PM
- Pulled29.5Oct 24, 04:15 PM
- First seen29.5Oct 24, 12:00 AM
Map stats
Inferno
9 maps
Kills
15.6
KPR
0.74
HS%
51.4%
K/D
1.12
Ancient
6 maps
Kills
13.8
KPR
0.64
HS%
34.9%
K/D
0.94
Anubis
6 maps
Kills
14.7
KPR
0.65
HS%
50%
K/D
0.99
Nuke
6 maps
Kills
14.3
KPR
0.72
HS%
50%
K/D
1.12
Mirage
5 maps
Kills
13.2
KPR
0.67
HS%
42.4%
K/D
0.93
Cache
4 maps
Kills
13.5
KPR
0.64
HS%
38.9%
K/D
0.95
Dust2
4 maps
Kills
13.5
KPR
0.69
HS%
50%
K/D
0.9
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-07 | PARIVISION | 21 Inferno 13-8 | 16 Cache 10-13 | 37 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-10-06 | Falcons | 9 Inferno 6-13 | 22 Anubis 19-15 | 31 | Split | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-10-05 | 9z | 15 Nuke 13-6 | 10 Cache 13-6 | 25 | W | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-10-04 | Vitality | 10 Anubis 5-13 | 13 Nuke 13-5 | 23 | Split | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-03 | G2 | 14 Cache 13-7 | 16 Inferno 13-4 | 30 | W | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-18 | MOUZ | 14 Cache 13-10 | 18 Inferno 10-13 | 32 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-09-17 | Aurora | 14 Nuke 8-13 | 15 Mirage 7-13 | 29 | L | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-08-30 | G2 | 18 Ancient 6-13 | 14 Inferno 10-13 | 32 | L | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-08-28 | paiN | 11 Nuke 13-9 | 16 Mirage 13-11 | 27 | W | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-08-26 | M80 | 7 Anubis 13-4 | 8 Mirage 6-13 | 15 | Split | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-08-20 | Legacy | 12 Inferno 9-13 | 5 Ancient 2-13 | 17 | L | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-08-15 | The MongolZ | 17 Inferno 13-5 | 12 Ancient 9-13 | 29 | Split | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-06-15 | G2 | 18 Dust2 13-11 | 19 Inferno 14-16 | 37 | Split | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-06-14 | Falcons | 11 Dust2 3-13 | 12 Mirage 13-7 | 23 | Split | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-06-13 | The MongolZ | 15 Nuke 8-13 | 15 Ancient 16-13 | 30 | Split | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-06-12 | Legacy | 14 Inferno 13-4 | 20 Ancient 13-10 | 34 | W | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-06-11 | Spirit | 10 Dust2 1-13 | 14 Anubis 8-13 | 24 | L | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-05-17 | GamerLegion | 15 Mirage 13-3 | 19 Anubis 13-9 | 34 | W | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-05-16 | BetBoom | 13 Ancient 13-8 | 18 Nuke 13-6 | 31 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-05-15 | Vitality | 15 Dust2 11-13 | 16 Anubis 13-11 | 31 | Split | Over ✓ |







































































































































































