KillsRisk
Line
34.5
Pick
OVER
Projection
34.44
Hit
48.4%
EV+
-16.2%
Edge
-0.1
L10
40%
HeadshotsBetter playRisk
Line
10.5
Pick
OVER
Projection
10.61
Hit
50.1%
EV+
-13.2%
Edge
+0.1
L10
40%

AWPer
sl3nd
Infinite Gaming vs Brute
RISK · OVER 10.5
BEST OVER · UD 10.5PP11UD10.5SL11.5
▼ L5 8.8 · L20 11.3Risk · Edge +0.1 far below ±2.0
Hit rates at 10.5 (Over)
L5
20%
1/5
L10
40%
4/10
L20
35%
7/20
H2H
N/A
Volatility
Low
±3.63
Previous meeting · vs Brute
No meeting with Brute in his last 20 series.
LAN vs online form
LAN
10.3
4/13 hit at 10.5
Online · this match
13.1
3/7 hit at 10.5
Avg headshots on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm sl3nd is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 10.5
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 46.0%
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
underdog · Headshots · Maps 1-2Risk
What to watch · Needs 11+ HS (~34 kills at 32% HS): 0.678 KPR over ~48 rounds. Main danger: a fast 2-0 (71%) or blowout (16.8%) cuts rounds.
Side
Over
Projection
10.61
Raw edge
+0.1
Cons. hit
50.1%
EV+
-13.2%
Rating
1/10
Exp. rounds
48.4
Line
10.5
Verdict
Risk
Plain model
50.1%
-8.7 →
Learned
41.4%
what past results change
learning 1x
learning 1x
Same-line track record · Over 8.5-12.5
All players · Headshots
57.5%106 picks
This player
—0 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 51.2% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±2 (pref ±2.5)
- Edge +0.1 below ±2.0 minimum
- EV+ not positive at current payout
- L10 hit rate ≥ 60%: L10 40.0% at this line
- L20 hit rate ≥ 55%: L20 35.0% at this line
- Game script fits: 2-0 sweep 71% (Overs need rounds)
Sharp checks · 3/6
Big enough sample · 20 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60% · L10 40.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55% · L20 35.0% at this line
Game script fits · 2-0 sweep 71% (Overs need rounds)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
Projection = 70% model (11.38) + 30% last-5 average
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 10.7 headshots vs line 11.5 (3/10 over). KPR 0.76, HS 32%. Next: vs BRUTE, Online.
Strongest: L10 average 10.7 against a 11.5 line
Biggest risk: High 2-0 sweep chance (71%) — fewer total rounds
- High 2-0 sweep chance (71%) — fewer total rounds
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
MIXED
The call
PASS
Value
NO VALUE
- • Model 10.61 vs line 10.5 → +0.11 (1.0%)
- • Form L5 20% · L10 40% over this line
- • Close match (45–65%) → longer maps: +1 round per map
- • Expected 48.4 rounds · 2-0 71% · OT 14.4%
Performance (last 40 maps)
Kills/Map
17.68
HS/Map
5.65
K/D
1.19
KPR
0.76
ADR
81.8
KAST
69.6%
HS%
32%
Multi-kill
20.7%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Dust2)5.6 · KPR 0.719 · 24.5r
Map 2 (Ancient)5.8 · KPR 0.753 · 23.9r
Required KPR to clear0.678
Base kills (Maps 1-2)35.61
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.-0.13%
Final projected kills35.56
× realistic HS% (32%)10.61
Brute gives up (32 series)-2.2% vs norm
Likely HS totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Over 10.5. Model: 51.2% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps16.8%
~9 HS · 41r29.1%
Normal52.4%
~10 HS · 47r45.8%
Close maps16.4%
~11 HS · 52r57.2%
Overtime14.4%
~13 HS · 58r70.3%
Match context
Oct 25, 03:00 PMOnlineNODWIN Clutch Series 13
Win chance source: Polymarket 46.0%
Close match (45–65%) → longer maps: +1 round per map
Game scriptIdeal Over range — team 46% to win (40-70%), competitive maps expected.
M1 Dust2
24.5r
-5% KPR here
M2 Ancient
23.9r
Total
48.4r
2-0 sweep71%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)30.8%
Overtime14.4%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)16.8%
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Dust2 / Ancient
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 10.5 (Over) · avg 10.7 · hit 4/10 · tap a bar
10.5
Nearby lines
| 8.5 Over | 63.9% | |
| 9.5 Over | 59.5% | |
| 10.5 Over | 50.1% | OFFERED |
| 11.5 Over | 41.6% | below BE |
| 12.5 Over | 33.5% | below BE |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 10.5
Line movement
first 11.5→10.5-1
- Moved down11.5 → 10.5Oct 24, 08:45 PM
- First seen11.5Oct 24, 01:02 PM
Map stats
Dust2
11 maps
Kills
17
KPR
0.71
HS%
35.3%
K/D
1.06
Ancient
9 maps
Kills
17.6
KPR
0.75
HS%
29.1%
K/D
1.2
Inferno
7 maps
Kills
17.7
KPR
0.86
HS%
29.8%
K/D
1.41
Mirage
5 maps
Kills
19.6
KPR
0.76
HS%
37.8%
K/D
1.14
Cache
4 maps
Kills
18.5
KPR
0.8
HS%
28.4%
K/D
1.19
Nuke
4 maps
Kills
16.5
KPR
0.77
HS%
28.8%
K/D
1.4
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-20 | Envy | 2 Ancient 8-13 | 5 Dust2 1-13 | 7 | L | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-20 | Eternal Fire | 2 Cache 1-13 | 5 Dust2 20-22 | 7 | L | Under ✗ | OTBO |
| 2026-10-09 | WBT | 4 Dust2 9-13 | 5 Ancient 6-13 | 9 | L | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-10-08 | G2 Ares | 2 Inferno 7-13 | 9 Ancient 14-16 | 11 | L | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-10-04 | SAW | 4 Nuke 9-13 | 6 Ancient 13-16 | 10 | L | Under ✗ | OT |
| 2026-10-03 | Wildcard | 2 Inferno 13-11 | 10 Mirage 13-8 | 12 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-10-03 | UNiTY | 8 Inferno 11-13 | 5 Mirage 7-13 | 13 | L | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-10-02 | SAW | 5 Cache 13-8 | 5 Ancient 13-8 | 10 | W | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-09-27 | RBLS | 3 Nuke 13-8 | 5 Ancient 13-8 | 8 | W | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-09-27 | Fluxo | 15 Mirage 20-22 | 5 Dust2 3-13 | 20 | L | Over ✓ | OTBO |
| 2026-09-26 | GenOne | 3 Dust2 11-13 | 6 Ancient 13-10 | 9 | Split | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-09-25 | NT | 5 Ancient 13-10 | 5 Dust2 19-16 | 10 | W | Under ✗ | OT |
| 2026-09-25 | SAW | 6 Inferno 9-13 | 2 Dust2 10-13 | 8 | L | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-09-16 | Honvéd | 9 Inferno 5-13 | 15 Dust2 11-13 | 24 | L | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-07 | INOX Division | 3 Ancient 10-13 | 4 Nuke 10-13 | 7 | L | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-09-05 | QUAZAR | 5 Cache 13-9 | 4 Dust2 5-13 | 9 | Split | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-04 | Phantom | 6 Inferno 13-7 | 2 Mirage 13-10 | 8 | W | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-09-04 | Nuclear TigeRES | 4 Inferno 4-13 | 6 Dust2 13-9 | 10 | Split | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-03 | 3DMAX | 8 Nuke 7-13 | 9 Cache 16-19 | 17 | L | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-09-02 | Black Phoenix | 12 Dust2 13-11 | 5 Mirage 13-10 | 17 | W | Over ✓ |








































































































































































