KillsBetter playLean
Line
28.5
Pick
OVER
Projection
31.57
Hit
60.6%
EV+
+4.9%
Edge
+3.1
L10
80%
HeadshotsLean
Line
16
Pick
OVER
Projection
17.73
Hit
58.9%
EV+
+2.1%
Edge
+1.7
L10
70%
#42Ranked 42 of 277 on the board

Rifler
syph0
Nemiga vs BetBoom
LEAN · OVER 16
BEST OVER · PP 16PP16UD16.5SL16.5
▲ L5 23.8 · L20 17.2
Hit rates at 16 (Over)
L5
80%
4/5
L10
70%
7/10
L20
55%
11/20
H2H
N/A
Volatility
High
±6.39
Previous meeting · vs BetBoom
No meeting with BetBoom in his last 20 series.
LAN vs online form
LAN · this match
21
3/5 hit at 16
Online
15.9
8/15 hit at 16
Avg headshots on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm SYPH0 is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 16
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 38.5%
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
prizepicks · Headshots · Maps 1-2Lean
What to watch · Needs 17+ HS (~32 kills at 53.6% HS): 0.723 KPR over ~41 rounds. His Kills line is 27: backing Kills Over needs ~5 fewer kills, usually the easier play. Main danger: a fast 2-0 (53.5%) or blowout (23.5%) cuts rounds.
Side
Over
Projection
17.73
Raw edge
+1.7
Cons. hit
58.9%
EV+
+2.1%
Rating
5.2/10
Exp. rounds
41.3
Line
16
Verdict
Lean
Plain model
58.9%
+8.1 →
Learned
67%
what past results change
learning 1x
learning 1x
Same-line track record · Over 14-18
All players · Headshots
59%234 picks
This player
100%1 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 60.7% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±2 (pref ±2.5)
- Edge +1.7 below ±2.0 minimum
- High form volatility
- Near the blowout zone — team 38% to win (ideal for Overs: 40-70%).
Sharp checks · 6/6
Big enough sample · 20 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60% · L10 70.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55% · L20 55.0% at this line
Game script fits · 2-0 sweep 54% (Overs need rounds)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
Projection = 70% model (15.13) + 30% last-5 average
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 19.9 headshots vs line 15.5 (8/10 over). KPR 0.73, HS 54%. Next: vs BetBoom, LAN.
Strongest: L10 average 19.9 against a 15.5 line
Biggest risk: Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
ALIGNED
The call
PASS
Value
THIN
- • Model 17.73 vs line 16 → +1.73 (10.8%)
- • Form L5 80% · L10 70% over this line
- • Underdog (≤40%) → fewer rounds (−1/map) and fewer kills (−6% KPR)
- • Expected 41.3 rounds · 2-0 53.5% · OT 18.9%
Performance (last 40 maps)
Kills/Map
16.05
HS/Map
8.6
K/D
1.11
KPR
0.73
ADR
80.9
KAST
77%
HS%
53.6%
Multi-kill
17.8%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Cache)7.4 · KPR 0.714 · 19.2r
Map 2 (Ancient)7.8 · KPR 0.652 · 22.1r
Required KPR to clear0.723
Base kills (Maps 1-2)28.13
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.+0.30%
Final projected kills28.22
× realistic HS% (53.6%)17.73
BetBoom gives up (64 series)+5.3% vs norm
Likely HS totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Over 16. Model: 60.7% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps23.5%
~15 HS · 35r35.3%
Normal54%
~18 HS · 41r53.6%
Close maps3.6%
~19 HS · 44r62.8%
Overtime18.9%
~22 HS · 50r76.8%
Match context
Oct 25, 11:00 AMLANPGL Masters Bucharest 2026
Win chance source: Polymarket 38.5%
Underdog (≤40%) → fewer rounds (−1/map) and fewer kills (−6% KPR)
Heads upNear the blowout zone — team 38% to win (ideal for Overs: 40-70%).
M1 Cache
19.2r
+4% KPR here
M2 Ancient
22.1r
-5% KPR here
Total
41.3r
2-0 sweep53.5%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)22.5%
Overtime18.9%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)23.5%
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Cache / Ancient
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 16 (Over) · avg 19.9 · hit 7/10 · tap a bar
16
Nearby lines
| 14 Over | 64% | |
| 15 Over | 62.5% | |
| 16 Over | 58.9% | OFFERED |
| 17 Over | 55.9% | below BE |
| 18 Over | 48.4% | below BE |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 16
Line movement
first 15.5→16+0.5
- Moved up15.5 → 16Oct 25, 04:16 AM
- First seen15.5Oct 25, 12:00 AM
Map stats
Cache
9 maps
Kills
15.2
KPR
0.77
HS%
46.7%
K/D
1.3
Mirage
8 maps
Kills
18
KPR
0.67
HS%
44.4%
K/D
1.06
Ancient
8 maps
Kills
16.1
KPR
0.68
HS%
58.1%
K/D
1.01
Dust2
7 maps
Kills
14.4
KPR
0.64
HS%
58.4%
K/D
0.94
Anubis
4 maps
Kills
11.5
KPR
0.55
HS%
58.7%
K/D
0.87
Nuke
4 maps
Kills
21.2
KPR
1.01
HS%
64.7%
K/D
1.81
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-24 | Legacy | 32 Ancient 25-23 | 3 Dust2 13-8 | 35 | W | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-10-10 | Iberian Soul | 2 Cache 7-13 | 20 Nuke 16-13 | 22 | Split | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-10-08 | Lavked | 9 Anubis 13-5 | 12 Dust2 13-4 | 21 | W | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-04 | Astralis | 7 Mirage 6-13 | 9 Ancient 13-10 | 16 | Split | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-10-03 | Luminosity | 8 Cache 13-11 | 17 Dust2 16-13 | 25 | W | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-10-02 | Alliance | 8 Cache 13-6 | 3 Ancient 13-8 | 11 | W | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-10-01 | FaZe | 7 Mirage 16-12 | 11 Ancient 13-11 | 18 | W | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-09-28 | BET-M | 8 Anubis 13-10 | 10 Nuke 13-6 | 18 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-09-28 | FOKUS | 6 Dust2 13-6 | 14 Mirage 22-20 | 20 | W | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-09-27 | Color | 9 Cache 13-5 | 4 Dust2 9-13 | 13 | Split | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-26 | Black Phoenix | 7 Cache 13-9 | 5 Dust2 9-13 | 12 | Split | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-09-25 | INOX Division | 10 Nuke 13-2 | 7 Ancient 13-10 | 17 | W | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-24 | Just Players | 6 Mirage 13-9 | 7 Cache 13-6 | 13 | W | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-09-14 | Metizport | 8 Mirage 16-14 | 15 Nuke 13-8 | 23 | W | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-09-13 | SINNERS | 11 Cache 13-10 | 7 Mirage 13-10 | 18 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-09-12 | Just Players | 4 Ancient 13-6 | 3 Cache 13-3 | 7 | W | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-10 | K27 | 3 Anubis 10-13 | 7 Mirage 13-9 | 10 | Split | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-09-09 | HOTU | 4 Ancient 3-13 | 9 Cache 13-4 | 13 | Split | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-08 | Color | 12 Dust2 16-13 | 7 Anubis 13-6 | 19 | W | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-09-06 | FOKUS | 8 Mirage 16-14 | 5 Ancient 13-3 | 13 | W | Under ✗ | OTBO |








































































































































































