KillsBetter playLean
Line
22.5
Pick
OVER
Projection
26.14
Hit
61.5%
EV+
+6.5%
Edge
+3.6
L10
50%
HeadshotsLean
Line
14.5
Pick
OVER
Projection
16.04
Hit
61%
EV+
+5.7%
Edge
+1.5
L10
60%

Rifler
Techno4k
The Mongolz vs Aurora Gaming
LEAN · OVER 14.5
UD14.5
▲ L5 18.0 · L20 14.6
Hit rates at 14.5 (Over)
L5
100%
5/5
L10
60%
6/10
L20
50%
10/20
H2H
100%
1/1
Volatility
Low
±3.81
Previous meeting · vs Aurora Gaming
1/1 hit · avg 17 headshots on Maps 1-2
2026-10-24 · PGL Masters Bucharest 2026
Inferno 12-16 · Nuke 13-2 · Split
17
Over 14.5 ✓
LAN vs online form
LAN
14.8
9/18 hit at 14.5
Online · this match
13
1/2 hit at 14.5
Avg headshots on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm Techno4K is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 14.5
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match schedule
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
underdog · Headshots · Maps 1-2Lean
What to watch · Needs 15+ HS (~25 kills at 59.6% HS): 0.571 KPR over ~43 rounds. His Kills line is 23.5: backing Kills Over needs ~1 fewer kill, usually the easier play. Main danger: a fast 2-0 (50%) or blowout (24.4%) cuts rounds.
Side
Over
Projection
16.04
Raw edge
+1.5
Cons. hit
61%
EV+
+5.7%
Rating
5.5/10
Exp. rounds
42.6
Line
14.5
Verdict
Lean
Plain model
61%
+7.9 →
Learned
68.9%
what past results change
learning 1x
learning 1x
Same-line track record · Over 12.5-16.5
All players · Headshots
61.7%261 picks
This player
100%3 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 65.7% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±2 (pref ±2.5)
- Edge +1.5 below ±2.0 minimum
- L20 hit rate ≥ 55%: L20 50.0% at this line
Sharp checks · 5/6
Big enough sample · 20 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60% · L10 60.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55% · L20 50.0% at this line
Game script fits · 2-0 sweep 50% (Overs need rounds)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
Projection = 70% model (15.21) + 30% last-5 average
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 15.9 headshots vs line 14.5 (6/10 over). KPR 0.60, HS 60%. Next: vs Aurora Gaming, LAN/Online unknown.
Strongest: L10 average 15.9 against a 14.5 line
Biggest risk: Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
PARTIAL
The call
PASS
Value
THIN
- • Model 16.04 vs line 14.5 → +1.54 (10.6%)
- • Form L5 100% · L10 60% over this line
- • Win chance unknown — no favourite adjustment
- • Expected 42.6 rounds · 2-0 50% · OT 10%
Performance (last 40 maps)
Kills/Map
12.25
HS/Map
7.3
K/D
0.9
KPR
0.6
ADR
67.7
KAST
72%
HS%
59.6%
Multi-kill
13.9%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Inferno)7.5 · KPR 0.613 · 20.7r
Map 2 (Mirage)7.7 · KPR 0.592 · 21.9r
Required KPR to clear0.571
Base kills (Maps 1-2)25.65
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.-0.55%
Final projected kills25.51
× realistic HS% (59.6%)16.04
Aurora Gaming gives up (91 series)-0.5% vs norm
Likely HS totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Over 14.5. Model: 65.7% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps24.4%
~14 HS · 36r37.6%
Normal53.1%
~16 HS · 43r65.7%
Close maps12.5%
~17 HS · 46r72.6%
Overtime10%
~19 HS · 52r86.5%
Match context
Oct 24, 07:00 AMOnline
Win chance source: —
Win chance unknown — no favourite adjustment
M1 Inferno
20.7r
+3% KPR here
M2 Mirage
21.9r
-1% KPR here
Total
42.6r
2-0 sweep50%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)22.5%
Overtime10%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)24.4%
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Inferno / Mirage
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 14.5 (Over) · avg 15.9 · hit 6/10 · tap a bar
14.5
Nearby lines
| 12.5 Over | 66.3% | |
| 13.5 Over | 65.2% | |
| 14.5 Over | 61% | OFFERED |
| 15.5 Over | 54.7% | below BE |
| 16.5 Over | 48.5% | below BE |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 14.5
Line movement
first 14.5→14.5no change
- Back on board14.5 → 14.5Oct 24, 08:14 PM
- Pulled14.5Oct 24, 07:12 AM
- First seen14.5Oct 23, 12:41 PM
Map stats
Inferno
11 maps
Kills
12.6
KPR
0.62
HS%
56.1%
K/D
0.93
Mirage
8 maps
Kills
13
KPR
0.59
HS%
61.5%
K/D
0.9
Nuke
6 maps
Kills
10.2
KPR
0.48
HS%
62.3%
K/D
0.74
Ancient
5 maps
Kills
15.2
KPR
0.67
HS%
61.8%
K/D
1
Dust2
5 maps
Kills
12.8
KPR
0.6
HS%
62.5%
K/D
1.16
Cache
3 maps
Kills
9.7
KPR
0.49
HS%
58.6%
K/D
0.69
Overpass
2 maps
Kills
8.5
KPR
0.46
HS%
47.1%
K/D
0.68
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-24 | Aurora | 9 Inferno 12-16 | 8 Nuke 13-2 | 17 | Split | Over ✓ | OTBO |
| 2026-10-22 | PARIVISION | 9 Ancient 13-6 | 9 Mirage 13-11 | 18 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-10-22 | BIG | 10 Cache 4-13 | 5 Inferno 13-3 | 15 | Split | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-21 | PRIVATE | 10 Mirage 13-6 | 9 Ancient 13-7 | 19 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-10-21 | magic | 11 Inferno 13-9 | 10 Ancient 13-10 | 21 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-10-20 | BIG | 4 Cache 8-13 | 6 Mirage 4-13 | 10 | L | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-19 | Alliance | 10 Inferno 13-8 | 11 Dust2 13-11 | 21 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-08-20 | Falcons | 4 Inferno 3-13 | 10 Dust2 9-13 | 14 | L | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-08-16 | paiN | 8 Nuke 13-10 | 6 Inferno 13-4 | 14 | W | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-08-15 | Natus Vincere | 6 Inferno 5-13 | 4 Ancient 13-9 | 10 | Split | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-07-31 | FaZe | 7 Nuke 12-16 | 5 Mirage 13-7 | 12 | Split | Under ✗ | OT |
| 2026-07-26 | Wildcard | 6 Dust2 13-7 | 13 Inferno 13-9 | 19 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-07-24 | HEROIC | 4 Nuke 5-13 | 3 Cache 13-8 | 7 | Split | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-06-15 | 9z | 2 Inferno 8-13 | 5 Overpass 8-13 | 7 | L | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-06-14 | Monte | 2 Nuke 9-13 | 5 Inferno 13-7 | 7 | Split | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-06-13 | Natus Vincere | 9 Nuke 13-8 | 15 Ancient 13-16 | 24 | Split | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-06-12 | B8 | 10 Mirage 16-14 | 3 Overpass 13-3 | 13 | W | Under ✗ | OTBO |
| 2026-06-11 | BetBoom | 7 Dust2 13-11 | 10 Mirage 6-13 | 17 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-05-22 | Legacy | 7 Inferno 11-13 | 8 Mirage 13-10 | 15 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-05-22 | PARIVISION | 6 Dust2 13-4 | 6 Mirage 13-11 | 12 | W | Under ✗ | BO |








































































































































































