KillsRisk
Line
27.5
Pick
OVER
Projection
25.81
Hit
42.9%
EV+
-25.7%
Edge
-1.7
L10
70%
HeadshotsBetter playRisk
Line
17
Pick
OVER
Projection
17.06
Hit
45.7%
EV+
-20.9%
Edge
+0.1
L10
50%

Rifler
HUASOPEEK
9z vs Vitality
RISK · OVER 17
BEST OVER · PP 17PP17UD17.5
≈ L5 18.8 · L20 18.4Risk · Edge +0.1 far below ±2.0 +1
Hit rates at 17 (Over)
L5
60%
3/5
L10
50%
5/10
L20
50%
10/20
H2H
0%
0/1
Volatility
Medium
±5.49
Previous meeting · vs Vitality
0/1 hit · avg 9 headshots on Maps 1-2
2026-08-29 · BLAST Open Fall 2026
Dust2 2-13 · Nuke 6-13 · L
9
Under 17 ✗
LAN vs online form
LAN · this match
18.4
10/20 hit at 17
Online
—
no series
Avg headshots on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm HUASOPEEK is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 17
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 15.5%
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
prizepicks · Headshots · Maps 1-2Risk
What to watch · Needs 18+ HS (~28 kills at 64.5% HS): 0.651 KPR over ~41 rounds. His Kills line is 25.5: backing Kills Over needs ~2 fewer kills, usually the easier play. Main danger: a fast 2-0 (66.5%) or blowout (32.6%) cuts rounds.
Side
Over
Projection
17.06
Raw edge
+0.1
Cons. hit
45.7%
EV+
-20.9%
Rating
1/10
Exp. rounds
40.5
Line
17
Verdict
Risk
Plain model
45.7%
+8.7 →
Learned
54.4%
what past results change
learning 1x
learning 1x
Same-line track record · Over 15-19
All players · Headshots
59.7%191 picks
This player
100%1 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 50.5% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±2 (pref ±2.5)
- Edge +0.1 below ±2.0 minimum
- EV+ not positive at current payout
- L10 hit rate ≥ 60%: L10 50.0% at this line
- L20 hit rate ≥ 55%: L20 50.0% at this line
- Game script fits: 2-0 sweep 66% (Overs need rounds)
- Blowout loss risk — team only 16% to win. Big underdogs often lose maps 13-3 and the Over dies (e.g. Temny Prince: 9 kills in a 3-13 map 1). Over is penalised and can't be a Take.
Sharp checks · 3/6
Big enough sample · 20 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60% · L10 50.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55% · L20 50.0% at this line
Game script fits · 2-0 sweep 66% (Overs need rounds)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
Projection = 70% model (16.32) + 30% last-5 average
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 17.2 headshots vs line 15.5 (5/10 over). KPR 0.69, HS 65%. Next: vs Vitality, LAN.
Strongest: L10 average 17.2 against a 15.5 line
Biggest risk: High 2-0 sweep chance (66%) — fewer total rounds
- High 2-0 sweep chance (66%) — fewer total rounds
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
PARTIAL
The call
PASS
Value
NO VALUE
- • Model 17.06 vs line 17 → +0.06 (0.4%)
- • Form L5 60% · L10 50% over this line
- • Underdog (≤40%) → fewer rounds (−1/map) and fewer kills (−6% KPR)
- • Expected 40.5 rounds · 2-0 66.5% · OT 12.2%
Performance (last 40 maps)
Kills/Map
14.3
HS/Map
9.22
K/D
0.96
KPR
0.69
ADR
75
KAST
72.8%
HS%
64.5%
Multi-kill
16.2%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Nuke)7.5 · KPR 0.607 · 19.4r
Map 2 (Mirage)8.8 · KPR 0.659 · 21.1r
Required KPR to clear0.651
Base kills (Maps 1-2)25.68
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.-1.48%
Final projected kills25.3
× realistic HS% (64.5%)17.06
Vitality gives up (100 series)-6.3% vs norm
Likely HS totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Over 17. Model: 50.5% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps32.6%
~14 HS · 34r23.5%
Normal44.9%
~18 HS · 42r49.4%
Close maps10.3%
~18 HS · 43r53.3%
Overtime12.2%
~21 HS · 49r70.8%
Match context
Oct 24, 01:30 PMLANPGL Masters Bucharest 2026
Win chance source: Polymarket 15.5%
Underdog (≤40%) → fewer rounds (−1/map) and fewer kills (−6% KPR)
⚠ Blowout riskBlowout loss risk — team only 16% to win. Big underdogs often lose maps 13-3 and the Over dies (e.g. Temny Prince: 9 kills in a 3-13 map 1). Over is penalised and can't be a Take.
M1 Nuke
19.4r
-6% KPR here
M2 Mirage
21.1r
+2% KPR here
Total
40.5r
2-0 sweep66.5%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)22.5%
Overtime12.2%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)32.6%
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Nuke / Mirage
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 17 (Over) · avg 17.2 · hit 5/10 · tap a bar
17
Nearby lines
| 15 Over | 54.1% | below BE |
| 16 Over | 50% | below BE |
| 17 Over | 45.7% | OFFERED |
| 18 Over | 41.4% | below BE |
| 19 Over | 35.1% | below BE |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 17
Line movement
first 15.5→17+1.5
- Moved down17.5 → 17Oct 24, 10:18 PM
- Back on board15.5 → 17.5Oct 24, 10:16 PM
- Pulled15.5Oct 24, 01:55 PM
- First seen15.5Oct 24, 12:00 AM
Map stats
Nuke
12 maps
Kills
12.8
KPR
0.64
HS%
56.5%
K/D
0.91
Mirage
9 maps
Kills
15.8
KPR
0.71
HS%
69%
K/D
1.1
Dust2
7 maps
Kills
16.7
KPR
0.79
HS%
64.1%
K/D
1.08
Inferno
6 maps
Kills
13
KPR
0.57
HS%
73.1%
K/D
0.82
Cache
4 maps
Kills
9.8
KPR
0.51
HS%
74.4%
K/D
0.75
Ancient
2 maps
Kills
21
KPR
0.74
HS%
54.8%
K/D
1.02
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-16 | Aurora | 15 Cache 11-13 | 8 Inferno 4-13 | 23 | L | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-15 | Falcons | 4 Nuke 9-13 | 9 Mirage 13-8 | 13 | Split | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-10-14 | Aurora | 12 Inferno 13-11 | 10 Nuke 13-1 | 22 | W | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-07 | FURIA | 4 Nuke 7-13 | 6 Inferno 3-13 | 10 | L | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-06 | BetBoom | 14 Dust2 13-8 | 12 Mirage 13-9 | 26 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-10-05 | Natus Vincere | 8 Nuke 6-13 | 4 Cache 6-13 | 12 | L | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-10-04 | TYLOO | 9 Nuke 13-10 | 10 Mirage 13-2 | 19 | W | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-03 | Aurora | 8 Dust2 3-13 | 5 Mirage 11-13 | 13 | L | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-10 | G2 | 14 Dust2 13-11 | 8 Ancient 8-13 | 22 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-09-09 | MIBR | 4 Mirage 6-13 | 8 Nuke 7-13 | 12 | L | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-09-08 | 5star | 5 Cache 13-3 | 5 Nuke 13-4 | 10 | W | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-08-29 | Vitality | 5 Dust2 2-13 | 4 Nuke 6-13 | 9 | L | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-08-27 | MOUZ | 5 Cache 4-13 | 8 Nuke 7-13 | 13 | L | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-08-16 | magic | 15 Ancient 17-19 | 11 Dust2 13-10 | 26 | Split | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-08-15 | FURIA | 7 Dust2 6-13 | 22 Mirage 16-13 | 29 | Split | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-07-12 | PARIVISION | 13 Mirage 13-9 | 15 Inferno 13-10 | 28 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-07-11 | Alliance | 5 Nuke 13-10 | 11 Inferno 17-19 | 16 | Split | Under ✗ | OT |
| 2026-07-09 | TYLOO | 11 Nuke 13-9 | 6 Mirage 7-13 | 17 | Split | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-07-05 | MIBR | 11 Nuke 13-10 | 17 Mirage 16-13 | 28 | W | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-07-04 | Alliance | 16 Dust2 14-16 | 5 Inferno 7-13 | 21 | L | Over ✓ | OT |







































































































































































