KillsRisk
Line
29.5
Pick
OVER
Projection
30.05
Hit
46.7%
EV+
-19.2%
Edge
+0.6
L10
20%
HeadshotsBetter playRisk
Line
10.5
Pick
OVER
Projection
11.44
Hit
56.1%
EV+
-2.8%
Edge
+0.9
L10
50%

AWPer
tronic
Nuclear TigeRES vs FORZE Reload
RISK · OVER 29.5
▲ L5 29.8 · L20 28.5Risk · Recent form (L5/L10) leans the other way +1
Hit rates at 29.5 (Over)
L5
40%
2/5
L10
20%
2/10
L20
31%
4/13
H2H
N/A
Volatility
Medium
±8.12
Previous meeting · vs FORZE Reload
No meeting with FORZE Reload in his last 13 series.
LAN vs online form
LAN
—
no series
Online · this match
28.5
4/13 hit at 29.5
Avg kills on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm tronic is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 29.5
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 63.5%
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
prizepicks · Kills · Maps 1-2Risk
What to watch · Needs 30+ kills: 0.622 KPR over ~47 rounds. Main danger: a fast 2-0 (54%) or blowout (23.4%) cuts rounds.
Side
Over
Projection
30.05
Raw edge
+0.6
Cons. hit
46.7%
EV+
-19.2%
Rating
1/10
Exp. rounds
47.4
Line
29.5
Verdict
Risk
Plain model
46.7%
+8.7 →
Learned
55.4%
what past results change
learning 1x
learning 1x
Same-line track record · Over 27.5-31.5
All players · Kills
56%332 picks
This player
100%1 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 52.7% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±3 (pref ±4)
- Edge +0.5 below ±3.0 minimum
- Recent form (L5/L10) does not lean the same way
- EV+ not positive at current payout
- L10 hit rate ≥ 60%: L10 20.0% at this line
- L20 hit rate ≥ 55%: L20 30.8% at this line
Sharp checks · 4/6
Big enough sample · 13 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60% · L10 20.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55% · L20 30.8% at this line
Game script fits · 2-0 sweep 54% (Overs need rounds)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
Projection = 70% model (30.15) + 30% last-5 average
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 27.0 kills vs line 29.5 (2/10 over). KPR 0.61, HS 38%. Next: vs FORZE Reload, LAN/Online unknown.
Strongest: L10 average 27.0 against a 29.5 line
Biggest risk: Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
MIXED
The call
PASS
Value
NO VALUE
- • Model 30.05 vs line 29.5 → +0.55 (1.9%)
- • Form L5 40% · L10 20% over this line
- • Close match (45–65%) → longer maps: +1 round per map
- • Expected 47.4 rounds · 2-0 54% · OT 17.7%
Performance (last 26 maps)
Kills/Map
14.27
HS/Map
5.46
K/D
1.06
KPR
0.61
ADR
64.6
KAST
75.3%
HS%
38.3%
Multi-kill
12.8%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Dust2)13.7 · KPR 0.553 · 24.8r
Map 2 (Nuke)16.4 · KPR 0.725 · 22.6r
Required KPR to clear0.622
Base kills (Maps 1-2)30.1
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.+0.18%
Final projected kills30.15
FORZE Reload gives up (41 series)-4.1% vs norm
Likely kills totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Over 29.5. Model: 52.7% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps23.4%
~25 kills · 40r25%
Normal39%
~29 kills · 46r45.8%
Close maps19.9%
~32 kills · 51r61.9%
Overtime17.7%
~36 kills · 57r78.6%
Match context
Oct 24, 02:00 PMOnline
Win chance source: Polymarket 63.5%
Close match (45–65%) → longer maps: +1 round per map
Game scriptIdeal Over range — team 64% to win (40-70%), competitive maps expected.
M1 Dust2
24.8r
-9% KPR here
M2 Nuke
22.6r
+19% KPR here
Total
47.4r
2-0 sweep54%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)37.6%
Overtime17.7%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)23.4%
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Dust2 / Nuke
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 29.5 (Over) · avg 27.0 · hit 2/10 · tap a bar
29.5
Nearby lines
| 27.5 Over | 57.2% | below BE |
| 28.5 Over | 51.3% | below BE |
| 29.5 Over | 46.7% | OFFERED |
| 30.5 Over | 43.9% | below BE |
| 31.5 Over | 41.2% | below BE |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 29.5
Line movement
first 29.5→offno change
- Pulled29.5Oct 24, 02:00 PM
- First seen29.5Oct 24, 12:00 AM
Map stats
Dust2
8 maps
Kills
13.1
KPR
0.53
HS%
37.1%
K/D
0.83
Nuke
7 maps
Kills
16.7
KPR
0.77
HS%
40.2%
K/D
1.39
Anubis
4 maps
Kills
13.8
KPR
0.71
HS%
40%
K/D
1.17
Cache
3 maps
Kills
15.7
KPR
0.63
HS%
34%
K/D
1.02
Ancient
2 maps
Kills
13
KPR
0.59
HS%
42.3%
K/D
1.18
Inferno
1 maps
Kills
5
KPR
0.25
HS%
80%
K/D
0.33
Mirage
1 maps
Kills
16
KPR
0.84
HS%
18.8%
K/D
1.45
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-23 | Illyrians | 12 Dust2 13-11 | 8 Ancient 13-3 | 20 | W | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-14 | LPH | 14 Nuke 13-9 | 14 Anubis 13-4 | 28 | W | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-09 | PRIVATE | 13 Anubis 6-13 | 10 Dust2 3-13 | 23 | L | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-30 | Young TigeRES | 20 Nuke 13-4 | 25 Cache 17-19 | 45 | Split | Over ✓ | OTBO |
| 2026-09-26 | Young TigeRES | 18 Nuke 13-9 | 15 Anubis 9-13 | 33 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-09-26 | Eternal Fire | 13 Anubis 13-7 | 12 Dust2 8-13 | 25 | Split | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-09-25 | Falcons Force | 17 Nuke 13-5 | 10 Cache 6-13 | 27 | Split | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-25 | ex-Zero Tenacity | 5 Inferno 7-13 | 7 Dust2 16-14 | 12 | Split | Under ✗ | OT |
| 2026-08-02 | Young TigeRES | 5 Nuke 6-13 | 24 Dust2 22-25 | 29 | L | Under ✗ | OT |
| 2026-08-01 | aimclub | 16 Dust2 13-6 | 12 Cache 7-13 | 28 | Split | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-07-30 | Young TigeRES | 23 Nuke 13-10 | 16 Mirage 13-6 | 39 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-07-28 | Aurora Young Blud | 9 Dust2 13-6 | 18 Ancient 16-12 | 27 | W | Under ✗ | OT |
| 2026-07-26 | TrafficPills | 15 Dust2 13-8 | 20 Nuke 14-16 | 35 | Split | Over ✓ | OT |








































































































































































