KillsRisk
Line
30.5
Pick
OVER
Projection
29.78
Hit
48%
EV+
-16.8%
Edge
-0.7
L10
60%
HeadshotsBetter playRisk
Line
17.5
Pick
OVER
Projection
17.91
Hit
56.5%
EV+
-2.2%
Edge
+0.4
L10
60%
#68Ranked 68 of 277 on the board

Rifler
d1Ledez
BetBoom vs Nemiga
RISK · OVER 17.5
SAME LINE ON ALL APPSPP17.5UD17.5SL17.5
≈ L5 18.4 · L20 18.1Risk · Edge +0.4 far below ±2.0
Hit rates at 17.5 (Over)
L5
80%
4/5
L10
60%
6/10
L20
50%
10/20
H2H
N/A
Volatility
Low
±2.9
Previous meeting · vs Nemiga
No meeting with Nemiga in his last 20 series.
LAN vs online form
LAN · this match
18.1
10/20 hit at 17.5
Online
—
no series
Avg headshots on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm d1Ledez is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 17.5
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 61.5%
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
prizepicks · Headshots · Maps 1-2Risk
What to watch · Needs 18+ HS (~30 kills at 60.5% HS): 0.636 KPR over ~46 rounds. Main danger: a fast 2-0 (53.5%) or blowout (21.2%) cuts rounds.
Side
Over
Projection
17.91
Raw edge
+0.4
Cons. hit
56.5%
EV+
-2.2%
Rating
5.3/10
Exp. rounds
45.5
Line
17.5
Verdict
Risk
Plain model
56.5%
+7.4 →
Learned
63.9%
what past results change
learning 1x
learning 1x
Same-line track record · Over 15.5-19.5
All players · Headshots
59.3%204 picks
This player
0%1 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 55.6% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±2 (pref ±2.5)
- Edge +0.4 below ±2.0 minimum
- EV+ not positive at current payout
- L20 hit rate ≥ 55%: L20 50.0% at this line
Sharp checks · 5/6
Big enough sample · 20 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60% · L10 60.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55% · L20 50.0% at this line
Game script fits · 2-0 sweep 54% (Overs need rounds)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
Projection = 70% model (17.7) + 30% last-5 average
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 17.7 headshots vs line 17.5 (6/10 over). KPR 0.67, HS 61%. Next: vs Nemiga, LAN.
Strongest: L10 average 17.7 against a 17.5 line
Biggest risk: Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
PARTIAL
The call
PASS
Value
NO VALUE
- • Model 17.91 vs line 17.5 → +0.41 (2.3%)
- • Form L5 80% · L10 60% over this line
- • Close match (45–65%) → longer maps: +1 round per map
- • Expected 45.5 rounds · 2-0 53.5% · OT 18.9%
Performance (last 40 maps)
Kills/Map
14.95
HS/Map
9.05
K/D
0.98
KPR
0.67
ADR
75.3
KAST
71.6%
HS%
60.5%
Multi-kill
15.6%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Anubis)9.8 · KPR 0.682 · 23.7r
Map 2 (Mirage)7.9 · KPR 0.594 · 21.8r
Required KPR to clear0.636
Base kills (Maps 1-2)29.11
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.+0.49%
Final projected kills29.25
× realistic HS% (60.5%)17.91
Nemiga gives up (70 series)-0.1% vs norm
Likely HS totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Over 17.5. Model: 55.6% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps21.2%
~15 HS · 38r25.9%
Normal35.5%
~17 HS · 43r42%
Close maps24.4%
~19 HS · 49r63.1%
Overtime18.9%
~22 HS · 55r79.9%
Match context
Oct 25, 11:00 AMLANPGL Masters Bucharest 2026
Win chance source: Polymarket 61.5%
Close match (45–65%) → longer maps: +1 round per map
Game scriptIdeal Over range — team 62% to win (40-70%), competitive maps expected.
M1 Anubis
23.7r
+2% KPR here
M2 Mirage
21.8r
-11% KPR here
Total
45.5r
2-0 sweep53.5%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)43.3%
Overtime18.9%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)21.2%
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Anubis / Mirage
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 17.5 (Over) · avg 17.7 · hit 6/10 · tap a bar
17.5
Nearby lines
| 15.5 Over | 65.9% | |
| 16.5 Over | 64% | |
| 17.5 Over | 56.5% | OFFERED |
| 18.5 Over | 46.6% | below BE |
| 19.5 Over | 36.9% | below BE |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 17.5
Line movement
first 17.5→17.5no change
- First seen17.5Oct 25, 12:00 AM
Map stats
Anubis
9 maps
Kills
15.9
KPR
0.69
HS%
66.4%
K/D
1.04
Mirage
8 maps
Kills
11.6
KPR
0.57
HS%
60.2%
K/D
0.82
Dust2
6 maps
Kills
13.8
KPR
0.62
HS%
55.4%
K/D
0.91
Ancient
6 maps
Kills
19
KPR
0.78
HS%
56.1%
K/D
1.2
Nuke
6 maps
Kills
15.5
KPR
0.72
HS%
59.1%
K/D
1.06
Cache
4 maps
Kills
14.2
KPR
0.59
HS%
63.2%
K/D
0.8
Overpass
1 maps
Kills
15
KPR
0.71
HS%
66.7%
K/D
0.88
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-24 | Spirit | 6 Anubis 10-13 | 7 Ancient 13-3 | 13 | Split | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-18 | FURIA | 5 Dust2 6-13 | 13 Ancient 19-16 | 18 | Split | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-10-17 | Falcons | 9 Anubis 5-13 | 12 Dust2 16-14 | 21 | Split | Over ✓ | OTBO |
| 2026-10-16 | Legacy | 13 Nuke 16-13 | 7 Dust2 11-13 | 20 | Split | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-10-15 | PARIVISION | 13 Ancient 10-13 | 7 Anubis 13-4 | 20 | Split | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-14 | FURIA | 9 Ancient 10-13 | 8 Mirage 9-13 | 17 | L | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-10-06 | 9z | 11 Dust2 8-13 | 6 Mirage 9-13 | 17 | L | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-10-05 | Aurora | 4 Mirage 4-13 | 8 Nuke 13-7 | 12 | Split | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-04 | M80 | 9 Cache 16-14 | 11 Anubis 13-11 | 20 | W | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-10-03 | FURIA | 6 Mirage 5-13 | 13 Cache 14-16 | 19 | L | Over ✓ | OTBO |
| 2026-09-12 | G2 | 6 Mirage 13-7 | 10 Anubis 13-16 | 16 | Split | Under ✗ | OT |
| 2026-09-10 | MIBR | 10 Mirage 13-9 | 15 Anubis 16-14 | 25 | W | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-09-09 | Astralis | 10 Ancient 16-14 | 10 Anubis 13-8 | 20 | W | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-09-08 | BIG | 9 Cache 13-8 | 16 Nuke 13-9 | 25 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-08-14 | Ninjas in Pyjamas | 5 Nuke 3-13 | 12 Anubis 11-13 | 17 | L | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-07-10 | FaZe | 5 Cache 2-13 | 12 Ancient 6-13 | 17 | L | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-07-03 | Nemesis | 10 Mirage 10-13 | 6 Dust2 13-6 | 16 | Split | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-06-18 | Aurora | 2 Nuke 6-13 | 15 Anubis 9-13 | 17 | L | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-06-15 | FUT | 6 Mirage 13-7 | 5 Dust2 13-7 | 11 | W | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-06-14 | Vitality | 10 Overpass 8-13 | 11 Nuke 11-13 | 21 | L | Over ✓ |








































































































































































