KillsBetter playRisk
Line
28.5
Pick
UNDER
Projection
26.3
Hit
49.8%
EV+
-13.8%
Edge
-2.2
L10
50%
HeadshotsRisk
Line
17.5
Pick
UNDER
Projection
15.75
Hit
49.1%
EV+
-14.9%
Edge
-1.8
L10
40%

Rifler
drop
BESTIA vs Imperial
RISK · UNDER 28.5
▲ L5 29.6 · L20 27.1Risk · Recent form (L5/L10) leans the other way +2LAN UNDER · 35% hit
Hit rates at 28.5 (Under)
L5
40%
2/5
L10
50%
5/10
L20
65%
13/20
H2H
50%
1/2
Volatility
High
±9.54
Previous meeting · vs Imperial
1/2 hit · avg 27.5 kills on Maps 1-2
2026-10-22 · Circuit X Curitiba 4
Dust2 13-7 · Mirage 13-7 · W
35
Over 28.5 ✗
2026-09-19 · Circuit X Curitiba 3
Mirage 13-10 · Nuke 2-13 · Split
20
Under 28.5 ✓
LAN vs online form
LAN · this match
27.8
11/18 hit at 28.5
Online
21
2/2 hit at 28.5
Avg kills on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm drop is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 28.5
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 36.5%
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
prizepicks · Kills · Maps 1-2Risk
What to watch · Stays under with 28 kills or fewer: below 0.709 KPR over ~40 rounds. Main danger: overtime (12.2%) or long close maps add rounds.
Side
Under
Projection
26.3
Raw edge
-2.2
Cons. hit
49.8%
EV+
-13.8%
Rating
1/10
Exp. rounds
40.2
Line
28.5
Verdict
Risk
Plain model
49.8%
-8.7 →
Learned
41.1%
what past results change
learning 1x
learning 1x
Same-line track record · Under 26.5-30.5
All players · Kills
46.4%334 picks
This player
33.3%3 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 59.1% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±3 (pref ±4)
- Edge -2.2 below ±3.0 minimum
- Recent form (L5/L10) does not lean the same way
- EV+ not positive at current payout
- High form volatility
- L10 hit rate ≥ 60%: L10 50.0% at this line
Sharp checks · 5/6
Big enough sample · 20 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60% · L10 50.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55% · L20 65.0% at this line
Game script fits · OT chance 12% (Unders hate OT)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
Projection = 70% model (24.89) + 30% last-5 average
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 31.8 kills vs line 28.5 (5/10 over). KPR 0.69, HS 61%. Next: vs Imperial, LAN.
Strongest: L10 average 31.8 against a 28.5 line
Biggest risk: 28% of recent maps were blowouts (13-5 or worse)
- 28% of recent maps were blowouts (13-5 or worse)
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
MIXED
The call
PASS
Value
NO VALUE
- • Model 26.3 vs line 28.5 → -2.2 (-7.7%)
- • Form L5 40% · L10 50% under this line
- • Underdog (≤40%) → fewer rounds (−1/map) and fewer kills (−6% KPR)
- • Expected 40.2 rounds · 2-0 54% · OT 12.2%
Performance (last 40 maps)
Kills/Map
13.57
HS/Map
8.25
K/D
0.95
KPR
0.69
ADR
79.6
KAST
73.8%
HS%
60.8%
Multi-kill
19.4%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Mirage)11.9 · KPR 0.591 · 20.4r
Map 2 (Ancient)12.9 · KPR 0.66 · 19.8r
Required KPR to clear0.709
Base kills (Maps 1-2)25.13
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.-0.96%
Final projected kills24.89
Imperial gives up (59 series)-10.2% vs norm
Likely kills totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Under 28.5. Model: 59.1% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps30.7%
~22 kills · 34r79.5%
Normal46.8%
~27 kills · 42r59.5%
Close maps10.3%
~28 kills · 43r55.2%
Overtime12.2%
~32 kills · 49r38.8%
Match context
Oct 24, 09:00 PMLANCircuit X Curitiba 4
Win chance source: Polymarket 36.5%
Underdog (≤40%) → fewer rounds (−1/map) and fewer kills (−6% KPR)
Game scriptIdeal Under range — team 36% to win; the lower the %, the fewer rounds he wins and kills he gets.
M1 Mirage
20.4r
-9% KPR here
M2 Ancient
19.8r
+1% KPR here
Total
40.2r
2-0 sweep54%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)22.5%
Overtime12.2%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)30.7%
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Mirage / Ancient
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 28.5 (Under) · avg 31.8 · hit 5/10 · tap a bar
28.5
Nearby lines
| 26.5 Under | 38.8% | below BE |
| 27.5 Under | 43.3% | below BE |
| 28.5 Under | 49.8% | OFFERED |
| 29.5 Under | 52.2% | below BE |
| 30.5 Under | 54.4% | below BE |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 28.5
Line movement
first 28.5→offno change
- Pulled28.5Oct 24, 09:55 PM
- Back on board28.5 → 28.5Oct 24, 09:54 PM
- Pulled28.5Oct 24, 09:54 PM
- First seen28.5Oct 24, 05:25 AM
Map stats
Mirage
12 maps
Kills
13.1
KPR
0.61
HS%
68.8%
K/D
0.92
Ancient
7 maps
Kills
14.4
KPR
0.71
HS%
53.5%
K/D
0.95
Nuke
6 maps
Kills
9.2
KPR
0.51
HS%
60%
K/D
0.76
Inferno
5 maps
Kills
16.8
KPR
0.63
HS%
61.9%
K/D
0.95
Cache
4 maps
Kills
16.8
KPR
0.77
HS%
62.7%
K/D
1.18
Dust2
4 maps
Kills
13.2
KPR
0.66
HS%
49.1%
K/D
0.98
Anubis
1 maps
Kills
18
KPR
0.9
HS%
55.6%
K/D
2
Overpass
1 maps
Kills
8
KPR
0.42
HS%
62.5%
K/D
0.5
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-23 | Galorys | 17 Ancient 13-9 | 19 Inferno 13-11 | 36 | W | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-10-22 | Imperial | 20 Dust2 13-7 | 15 Mirage 13-7 | 35 | W | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-10-22 | ShindeN | 9 Dust2 7-13 | 18 Cache 13-5 | 27 | Split | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-26 | Voca | 16 Ancient 10-13 | 17 Mirage 10-13 | 33 | L | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-09-25 | M80 | 7 Mirage 6-13 | 10 Cache 6-13 | 17 | L | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-09-20 | Bounty Hunters | 26 Cache 16-14 | 19 Mirage 19-16 | 45 | W | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-09-19 | ShindeN | 24 Mirage 16-13 | 25 Inferno 22-19 | 49 | W | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-09-19 | Imperial | 16 Mirage 13-10 | 4 Nuke 2-13 | 20 | Split | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-18 | CLANSBR | 18 Ancient 13-7 | 10 Mirage 13-2 | 28 | W | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-17 | Galorys | 15 Ancient 10-13 | 13 Dust2 7-13 | 28 | L | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-09-17 | CLANSBR | 11 Inferno 13-3 | 7 Mirage 13-2 | 18 | W | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-10 | Virtus.pro | 7 Mirage 4-13 | 11 Dust2 7-13 | 18 | L | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-09 | HEROIC | 13 Cache 7-13 | 11 Ancient 4-13 | 24 | L | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-04-15 | Spirit | 17 Mirage 13-8 | 19 Ancient 8-13 | 36 | Split | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-04-14 | RED Canids | 10 Mirage 13-9 | 5 Ancient 4-13 | 15 | Split | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-04-13 | Vitality | 6 Nuke 4-13 | 8 Overpass 6-13 | 14 | L | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-04-02 | RED Canids | 18 Nuke 13-7 | 18 Anubis 13-7 | 36 | W | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-03-28 | DASH | 7 Nuke 13-4 | 17 Inferno 12-16 | 24 | Split | Under ✓ | OTBO |
| 2026-03-28 | RED Canids | 8 Mirage 13-4 | 8 Nuke 13-7 | 16 | W | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-03-27 | RED Canids | 12 Inferno 11-13 | 12 Nuke 6-13 | 24 | L | Under ✓ |







































































































































































