KillsLean
Line
31.5
Pick
OVER
Projection
34.05
Hit
56.6%
EV+
-1.9%
Edge
+2.5
L10
44%
HeadshotsBetter playTake
Line
16
Pick
OVER
Projection
19.69
Hit
64.5%
EV+
+11.7%
Edge
+3.7
L10
67%

Rifler
flouzer
Nuclear TigeRES vs FORZE Reload
TAKE · OVER 16
▼ L5 17.8 · L20 18.9
Hit rates at 16 (Over)
L5
80%
4/5
L10
67%
6/9
L20
67%
6/9
H2H
N/A
Volatility
Medium
±4.48
Previous meeting · vs FORZE Reload
No meeting with FORZE Reload in his last 9 series.
LAN vs online form
LAN
—
no series
Online · this match
18.9
6/9 hit at 16
Avg headshots on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm flouzer is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 18
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 63.5%
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
prizepicks · Headshots · Maps 1-2Take
What to watch · Needs 17+ HS (~29 kills at 58.4% HS): 0.593 KPR over ~46 rounds. Main danger: a fast 2-0 (54%) or blowout (17.1%) cuts rounds.
Side
Over
Projection
19.69
Raw edge
+3.7
Cons. hit
64.5%
EV+
+11.7%
Rating
9.5/10
Exp. rounds
46.2
Line
16
Verdict
Take
Plain model
64.5%
+7.6 →
Learned
72.1%
what past results change
learning 1x
learning 1x
Same-line track record · Over 14-18
All players · Headshots
59%234 picks
This player
100%1 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 79.5% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±2 (pref ±2.5)
Clears edge, form, EV+, volatility and every sharp check
Sharp checks · 6/6
Big enough sample · 9 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60% · L10 66.7% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55% · L20 66.7% at this line
Game script fits · 2-0 sweep 54% (Overs need rounds)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
Projection = 70% model (20.49) + 30% last-5 average
Evidence & risk
Last 9 series Maps 1-2: avg 18.9 headshots vs line 16.0 (6/9 over). KPR 0.74, HS 58%. Next: vs FORZE Reload, Online.
Strongest: L10 average 18.9 against a 16.0 line
Biggest risk: Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
ALIGNED
The call
TAKE OVER
Value
VALUE
- • Model 19.69 vs line 16 → +3.69 (23.1%)
- • Form L5 80% · L10 66.7% over this line
- • Close match (45–65%) → longer maps: +1 round per map
- • Expected 46.2 rounds · 2-0 54% · OT 10.9%
Performance (last 18 maps)
Kills/Map
16.17
HS/Map
9.44
K/D
1.11
KPR
0.74
ADR
80.7
KAST
74.5%
HS%
58.4%
Multi-kill
18.7%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Dust2)10.6 · KPR 0.727 · 25r
Map 2 (Ancient)9.9 · KPR 0.798 · 21.2r
Required KPR to clear0.593
Base kills (Maps 1-2)35.09
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.0.00%
Final projected kills35.09
× realistic HS% (58.4%)19.69
FORZE Reload gives up (41 series)-2.5% vs norm
Likely HS totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Over 16. Model: 79.5% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps17.1%
~17 HS · 39r48.6%
Normal56.7%
~20 HS · 46r74%
Close maps15.3%
~21 HS · 49r83.4%
Overtime10.9%
~24 HS · 55r93%
Match context
Oct 24, 02:00 PMOnlineNODWIN Clutch Series 13
Win chance source: Polymarket 63.5%
Close match (45–65%) → longer maps: +1 round per map
Game scriptIdeal Over range — team 64% to win (40-70%), competitive maps expected.
M1 Dust2
25r
-1% KPR here
M2 Ancient
21.2r
+8% KPR here
Total
46.2r
2-0 sweep54%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)26.2%
Overtime10.9%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)17.1%
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Dust2 / Ancient
Recent Maps 1-2 form
9 series · line 16 (Over) · avg 18.9 · hit 6/9 · tap a bar
16
Nearby lines
| 14 Over | 66.6% | |
| 15 Over | 66.3% | |
| 16 Over | 64.5% | OFFERED |
| 17 Over | 63% | |
| 18 Over | 59.4% |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 18
Line movement
first 16→offno change
- Pulled16.5Oct 24, 02:00 PM
- Moved up16 → 16.5Oct 24, 05:51 AM
- First seen16Oct 24, 12:00 AM
Map stats
Dust2
8 maps
Kills
18
KPR
0.72
HS%
61.1%
K/D
1.07
Ancient
3 maps
Kills
16.3
KPR
0.86
HS%
53.1%
K/D
1.32
Anubis
3 maps
Kills
15
KPR
0.79
HS%
53.3%
K/D
1.41
Inferno
2 maps
Kills
12
KPR
0.62
HS%
66.7%
K/D
0.96
Mirage
1 maps
Kills
11
KPR
0.52
HS%
45.5%
K/D
0.65
Nuke
1 maps
Kills
18
KPR
0.82
HS%
61.1%
K/D
1.2
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-23 | Illyrians | 13 Dust2 13-11 | 10 Ancient 13-3 | 23 | W | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-14 | LPH | 11 Nuke 13-9 | 7 Anubis 13-4 | 18 | W | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-26 | Eternal Fire | 6 Anubis 13-7 | 13 Dust2 8-13 | 19 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-09-25 | ex-Zero Tenacity | 8 Inferno 7-13 | 11 Dust2 16-14 | 19 | Split | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-09-10 | SINNERS | 8 Inferno 13-6 | 2 Dust2 8-13 | 10 | Split | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-09-09 | INOX Division | 12 Ancient 13-9 | 4 Dust2 8-13 | 16 | Split | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-09-07 | CYBERSHOKE | 12 Dust2 13-9 | 11 Anubis 7-13 | 23 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-09-05 | Ninjas in Pyjamas | 11 Dust2 11-13 | 5 Mirage 8-13 | 16 | L | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-09-04 | HEROIC | 4 Ancient 6-13 | 22 Dust2 17-19 | 26 | L | Over ✓ | OT |








































































































































































