KillsRisk
Line
27.5
Pick
OVER
Projection
27.51
Hit
52.4%
EV+
-9.3%
Edge
+0.0
L10
57%
HeadshotsBetter playRisk
Line
15.5
Pick
OVER
Projection
16.65
Hit
60.2%
EV+
+4.4%
Edge
+1.1
L10
71%

Rifler
Zanto
STATE vs overTIME
RISK · OVER 15.5
Risk · Edge +1.1 far below ±2.0STAND-IN? · Altekz
Hit rates at 15.5 (Over)
L5
60%
3/5
L10
71%
5/7
L20
71%
5/7
H2H
0%
0/1
Volatility
Low
±3.56
Previous meeting · vs overTIME
0/1 hit · avg 14 headshots on Maps 1-2
2026-10-24 · Hotspawn 10k Showdown
Anubis 13-3 · Nuke 13-1 · W
14
Under 15.5 ✗
LAN vs online form
LAN
14
0/1 hit at 15.5
Online · this match
17.3
5/6 hit at 15.5
Avg headshots on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm Zanto is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 15.5
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match schedule
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
underdog · Headshots · Maps 1-2Risk
What to watch · Needs 16+ HS (~26 kills at 60.5% HS): 0.59 KPR over ~43 rounds. Main danger: a fast 2-0 (50%) or blowout (26.3%) cuts rounds.
Side
Over
Projection
16.65
Raw edge
+1.1
Cons. hit
60.2%
EV+
+4.4%
Rating
5.5/10
Exp. rounds
43.4
Line
15.5
Verdict
Risk
Plain model
60.2%
-0.5 →
Learned
59.7%
what past results change
learning 1x
learning 1x
Same-line track record · Over 13.5-17.5
All players · Headshots
59.3%263 picks
This player
0%1 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 62.6% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±2 (pref ±2.5)
- Edge +1.1 below ±2.0 minimum
- Big enough sample: 7 recent series (need 8+)
Sharp checks · 5/6
Big enough sample · 7 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60% · L10 71.4% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55% · L20 71.4% at this line
Game script fits · 2-0 sweep 50% (Overs need rounds)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
Projection = 70% model (16.41) + 30% last-5 average
Evidence & risk
Last 7 series Maps 1-2: avg 16.9 headshots vs line 15.5 (5/7 over). KPR 0.65, HS 61%. Next: vs overTIME, LAN/Online unknown.
Strongest: L10 average 16.9 against a 15.5 line
Biggest risk: 29% of recent maps were blowouts (13-5 or worse)
- 29% of recent maps were blowouts (13-5 or worse)
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
- Small sample (7 series)
The read
Signal
PARTIAL
The call
PASS
Value
THIN
- • Model 16.65 vs line 15.5 → +1.15 (7.4%)
- • Form L5 60% · L10 71.4% over this line
- • Win chance unknown — no favourite adjustment
- • Expected 43.4 rounds · 2-0 50% · OT 7.9%
Performance (last 14 maps)
Kills/Map
13.93
HS/Map
8.43
K/D
1.08
KPR
0.65
ADR
75.9
KAST
81.4%
HS%
60.5%
Multi-kill
15.9%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Cache)8.8 · KPR 0.619 · 23.8r
Map 2 (Nuke)7.6 · KPR 0.645 · 19.6r
Required KPR to clear0.59
Base kills (Maps 1-2)27.37
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.-0.91%
Final projected kills27.12
× realistic HS% (60.5%)16.65
overTIME gives up (10 series)+5.1% vs norm
Likely HS totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Over 15.5. Model: 62.6% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps26.3%
~14 HS · 37r33.1%
Normal33.7%
~17 HS · 44r60.6%
Close maps32.1%
~18 HS · 46r69.3%
Overtime7.9%
~20 HS · 52r84.3%
Match context
Oct 24, 09:00 AMOnline
Win chance source: —
Win chance unknown — no favourite adjustment
M1 Cache
23.8r
-4% KPR here
M2 Nuke
19.6r
Total
43.4r
2-0 sweep50%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)40%
Overtime7.9%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)26.3%
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Cache / Nuke
Recent Maps 1-2 form
7 series · line 15.5 (Over) · avg 16.9 · hit 5/7 · tap a bar
15.5
Nearby lines
| 13.5 Over | 65.4% | |
| 14.5 Over | 63% | |
| 15.5 Over | 60.2% | OFFERED |
| 16.5 Over | 51.7% | below BE |
| 17.5 Over | 44.1% | below BE |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 15.5
Line movement
first 15.5→offno change
- Pulled15.5Oct 24, 09:12 AM
- First seen15.5Oct 23, 11:11 PM
Map stats
Cache
4 maps
Kills
15.2
KPR
0.6
HS%
57.4%
K/D
1.03
Nuke
3 maps
Kills
11.3
KPR
0.64
HS%
50%
K/D
1.06
Inferno
2 maps
Kills
13
KPR
0.58
HS%
73.1%
K/D
1
Anubis
2 maps
Kills
13.5
KPR
0.79
HS%
59.3%
K/D
1.5
Mirage
2 maps
Kills
14
KPR
0.62
HS%
67.9%
K/D
0.8
Ancient
1 maps
Kills
19
KPR
0.86
HS%
63.2%
K/D
1.73
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-24 | overTIME | 6 Anubis 13-3 | 8 Nuke 13-1 | 14 | W | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-07 | HOTU | 2 Nuke 3-13 | 10 Anubis 13-5 | 12 | Split | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-26 | G2 Ares | 12 Ancient 13-9 | 12 Cache 15-19 | 24 | Split | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-09-25 | Famalicão | 10 Inferno 10-13 | 7 Cache 13-11 | 17 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-09-23 | Illyrians | 10 Mirage 11-13 | 9 Cache 13-11 | 19 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-09-23 | ex-Zero Tenacity | 9 Inferno 9-13 | 7 Nuke 13-10 | 16 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-09-22 | KAMUI | 9 Mirage 8-13 | 7 Cache 13-7 | 16 | Split | Over ✓ |








































































































































































