KillsRisk
Line
29
Pick
UNDER
Projection
28.77
Hit
39.5%
EV+
-31.5%
Edge
-0.2
L10
30%
HeadshotsBetter playRisk
Line
16
Pick
UNDER
Projection
15.32
Hit
49.2%
EV+
-14.8%
Edge
-0.7
L10
60%
#187Ranked 187 of 277 on the board

Rifler
makazze
Natus Vincere vs FURIA
RISK · UNDER 16
BEST UNDER · PP 16PP16UD15.5SL15.5
▲ L5 17.6 · L20 15.3Risk · Recent form (L5/L10) leans the other way +1LAN UNDER · 35% hit
Hit rates at 16 (Under)
L5
60%
3/5
L10
60%
6/10
L20
65%
13/20
H2H
N/A
Volatility
Medium
±4.19
Previous meeting · vs FURIA
No meeting with FURIA in his last 20 series.
LAN vs online form
LAN · this match
15.3
13/20 hit at 16
Online
—
no series
Avg headshots on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm makazze is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 16
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 43.5%
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
prizepicks · Headshots · Maps 1-2Risk
What to watch · Stays under with 15 HS or fewer (under ~30 kills at 53.2% HS): below 0.714 KPR over ~42 rounds. Main danger: overtime (10%) or long close maps add rounds.
Side
Under
Projection
15.32
Raw edge
-0.7
Cons. hit
49.2%
EV+
-14.8%
Rating
1/10
Exp. rounds
42.1
Line
16
Verdict
Risk
Plain model
49.2%
-8.6 →
Learned
40.6%
what past results change
learning 1x
learning 1x
Same-line track record · Under 14-18
All players · Headshots
41%234 picks
This player
100%1 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 56.4% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±2 (pref ±2.5)
- Edge -0.7 below ±2.0 minimum
- Recent form (L5/L10) does not lean the same way
- EV+ not positive at current payout
Sharp checks · 6/6
Big enough sample · 20 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60% · L10 60.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55% · L20 65.0% at this line
Game script fits · OT chance 10% (Unders hate OT)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
Projection = 70% model (14.34) + 30% last-5 average
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 16.2 headshots vs line 16.0 (2/10 over). KPR 0.70, HS 53%. Next: vs FURIA, LAN.
Strongest: L10 average 16.2 against a 16.0 line
Biggest risk: Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
MIXED
The call
PASS
Value
NO VALUE
- • Model 15.32 vs line 16 → -0.68 (-4.3%)
- • Form L5 60% · L10 60% under this line
- • Slight lean (40–45% / 65–70%) → no adjustment
- • Expected 42.1 rounds · 2-0 52.5% · OT 10%
Performance (last 40 maps)
Kills/Map
14.38
HS/Map
7.65
K/D
0.94
KPR
0.7
ADR
80.9
KAST
71.5%
HS%
53.2%
Multi-kill
18.3%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Inferno)6.4 · KPR 0.573 · 21.2r
Map 2 (Nuke)7.9 · KPR 0.719 · 20.9r
Required KPR to clear0.714
Base kills (Maps 1-2)27.17
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.-0.79%
Final projected kills26.96
× realistic HS% (53.2%)15.32
FURIA gives up (117 series)-8.4% vs norm
Likely HS totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Under 16. Model: 56.4% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps26.4%
~13 HS · 35r77.1%
Normal46.9%
~16 HS · 43r50.6%
Close maps16.7%
~16 HS · 45r43.2%
Overtime10%
~19 HS · 51r25%
Match context
Oct 25, 05:00 PMLANPGL Masters Bucharest 2026
Win chance source: Polymarket 43.5%
Slight lean (40–45% / 65–70%) → no adjustment
Game scriptNeutral for Under — team 44% to win (ideal is 40% or lower).
M1 Inferno
21.2r
-18% KPR here
M2 Nuke
20.9r
+3% KPR here
Total
42.1r
2-0 sweep52.5%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)26.7%
Overtime10%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)26.4%
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Inferno / Nuke
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 16 (Under) · avg 16.2 · hit 6/10 · tap a bar
16
Nearby lines
| 14 Under | 29.9% | below BE |
| 15 Under | 39.5% | below BE |
| 16 Under | 49.2% | OFFERED |
| 17 Under | 58% | |
| 18 Under | 61.5% |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 16
Line movement
first 16→16no change
- First seen16Oct 25, 12:00 AM
Map stats
Inferno
9 maps
Kills
11.2
KPR
0.53
HS%
60.4%
K/D
0.71
Nuke
7 maps
Kills
15
KPR
0.73
HS%
47.6%
K/D
1.08
Ancient
6 maps
Kills
15.7
KPR
0.73
HS%
45.7%
K/D
1.02
Mirage
5 maps
Kills
15.6
KPR
0.79
HS%
53.8%
K/D
1.13
Anubis
5 maps
Kills
16.4
KPR
0.73
HS%
61%
K/D
1.02
Dust2
4 maps
Kills
12.2
KPR
0.52
HS%
49%
K/D
0.64
Cache
4 maps
Kills
16.5
KPR
0.78
HS%
54.5%
K/D
1.27
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-24 | G2 | 5 Nuke 13-11 | 9 Dust2 22-19 | 14 | W | Under ✓ | OT |
| 2026-10-07 | PARIVISION | 8 Inferno 13-8 | 7 Cache 10-13 | 15 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-10-06 | Falcons | 4 Inferno 6-13 | 24 Anubis 19-15 | 28 | Split | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-10-05 | 9z | 4 Nuke 13-6 | 11 Cache 13-6 | 15 | W | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-10-04 | Vitality | 7 Anubis 5-13 | 9 Nuke 13-5 | 16 | Split | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-03 | G2 | 8 Cache 13-7 | 5 Inferno 13-4 | 13 | W | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-18 | MOUZ | 10 Cache 13-10 | 4 Inferno 10-13 | 14 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-09-17 | Aurora | 8 Nuke 8-13 | 10 Mirage 7-13 | 18 | L | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-08-30 | G2 | 7 Ancient 6-13 | 6 Inferno 10-13 | 13 | L | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-08-28 | paiN | 8 Nuke 13-9 | 8 Mirage 13-11 | 16 | W | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-08-26 | M80 | 8 Anubis 13-4 | 7 Mirage 6-13 | 15 | Split | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-08-20 | Legacy | 5 Inferno 9-13 | 7 Ancient 2-13 | 12 | L | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-08-15 | The MongolZ | 10 Inferno 13-5 | 7 Ancient 9-13 | 17 | Split | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-06-15 | G2 | 9 Dust2 13-11 | 11 Inferno 14-16 | 20 | Split | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-06-14 | Falcons | 5 Dust2 3-13 | 8 Mirage 13-7 | 13 | Split | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-06-13 | The MongolZ | 6 Nuke 8-13 | 7 Ancient 16-13 | 13 | Split | Under ✓ | OT |
| 2026-06-12 | Legacy | 8 Inferno 13-4 | 7 Ancient 13-10 | 15 | W | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-06-11 | Spirit | 1 Dust2 1-13 | 9 Anubis 8-13 | 10 | L | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-05-17 | GamerLegion | 9 Mirage 13-3 | 2 Anubis 13-9 | 11 | W | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-05-16 | BetBoom | 8 Ancient 13-8 | 10 Nuke 13-6 | 18 | W | Over ✗ |








































































































































































