KillsBetter playLean
Line
31.5
Pick
OVER
Projection
33.81
Hit
58.5%
EV+
+1.2%
Edge
+2.3
L10
60%
HeadshotsRisk
Line
18
Pick
OVER
Projection
19.45
Hit
55.4%
EV+
-4.1%
Edge
+1.4
L10
30%

Rifler
decenty
Imperial vs BESTIA
RISK · OVER 18
≈ L5 18.8 · L20 18.1Risk · Edge +1.5 far below ±2.0
Hit rates at 18 (Over)
L5
40%
2/5
L10
30%
3/10
L20
36%
5/14
H2H
0%
0/2
Volatility
Medium
±4.17
Previous meeting · vs BESTIA
0/2 hit · avg 14 headshots on Maps 1-2
2026-10-22 · Circuit X Curitiba 4
Dust2 7-13 · Mirage 7-13 · L
12
Under 18 ✗
2026-09-19 · Circuit X Curitiba 3
Mirage 10-13 · Nuke 13-2 · Split
16
Under 18 ✗
LAN vs online form
LAN · this match
17.8
4/13 hit at 18
Online
22
1/1 hit at 18
Avg headshots on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm decenty is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 18
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 63.5%
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
prizepicks · Headshots · Maps 1-2Risk
What to watch · Needs 19+ HS (~32 kills at 58.5% HS): 0.693 KPR over ~44 rounds. Main danger: a fast 2-0 (54%) or blowout (28.3%) cuts rounds.
Side
Over
Projection
19.45
Raw edge
+1.4
Cons. hit
55.4%
EV+
-4.1%
Rating
3.4/10
Exp. rounds
44.4
Line
18
Verdict
Risk
Plain model
55.4%
+8.4 →
Learned
63.8%
what past results change
learning 1x
learning 1x
Same-line track record · Over 16-20
All players · Headshots
57.7%149 picks
This player
100%2 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 63.6% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±2 (pref ±2.5)
- Edge +1.5 below ±2.0 minimum
- Recent form (L5/L10) does not lean the same way
- EV+ not positive at current payout
- L10 hit rate ≥ 60%: L10 30.0% at this line
- L20 hit rate ≥ 55%: L20 35.7% at this line
Sharp checks · 4/6
Big enough sample · 14 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60% · L10 30.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55% · L20 35.7% at this line
Game script fits · 2-0 sweep 54% (Overs need rounds)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
Projection = 70% model (19.73) + 30% last-5 average
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 18.0 headshots vs line 18.0 (3/10 over). KPR 0.72, HS 59%. Next: vs BESTIA, LAN.
Strongest: L10 average 18.0 against a 18.0 line
Biggest risk: Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
MIXED
The call
PASS
Value
NO VALUE
- • Model 19.45 vs line 18 → +1.45 (8.1%)
- • Form L5 40% · L10 30% over this line
- • Close match (45–65%) → longer maps: +1 round per map
- • Expected 44.4 rounds · 2-0 54% · OT 13.6%
Performance (last 28 maps)
Kills/Map
15.5
HS/Map
9.07
K/D
1.14
KPR
0.72
ADR
80.8
KAST
78%
HS%
58.5%
Multi-kill
18.1%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Mirage)11 · KPR 0.815 · 23.2r
Map 2 (Nuke)8.7 · KPR 0.709 · 21.2r
Required KPR to clear0.693
Base kills (Maps 1-2)33.94
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.-0.62%
Final projected kills33.73
× realistic HS% (58.5%)19.45
BESTIA gives up (72 series)+4.5% vs norm
Likely HS totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Over 18. Model: 63.6% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps28.3%
~16 HS · 37r29%
Normal30.6%
~19 HS · 44r55.8%
Close maps27.5%
~21 HS · 48r67.9%
Overtime13.6%
~23 HS · 54r84.1%
Match context
Oct 24, 09:00 PMLANCircuit X Curitiba 4
Win chance source: Polymarket 63.5%
Close match (45–65%) → longer maps: +1 round per map
Game scriptIdeal Over range — team 64% to win (40-70%), competitive maps expected.
M1 Mirage
23.2r
+13% KPR here
M2 Nuke
21.2r
-2% KPR here
Total
44.4r
2-0 sweep54%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)41.1%
Overtime13.6%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)28.3%
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Mirage / Nuke
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 18 (Over) · avg 18.0 · hit 3/10 · tap a bar
18
Nearby lines
| 16 Over | 64.6% | |
| 17 Over | 59.4% | |
| 18 Over | 55.4% | OFFERED |
| 19 Over | 50.3% | below BE |
| 20 Over | 44.8% | below BE |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 18
Line movement
first 18→offno change
- Pulled18Oct 24, 09:55 PM
- Back on board18 → 18Oct 24, 09:54 PM
- Pulled18Oct 24, 09:54 PM
- First seen18Oct 24, 05:25 AM
Map stats
Mirage
7 maps
Kills
19.3
KPR
0.85
HS%
47.4%
K/D
1.29
Nuke
5 maps
Kills
13.6
KPR
0.7
HS%
63.2%
K/D
1.19
Cache
4 maps
Kills
17.5
KPR
0.68
HS%
57.1%
K/D
0.96
Inferno
4 maps
Kills
13
KPR
0.68
HS%
65.4%
K/D
1.11
Anubis
4 maps
Kills
15.2
KPR
0.69
HS%
65.6%
K/D
1.03
Dust2
4 maps
Kills
12
KPR
0.65
HS%
68.8%
K/D
1.17
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-23 | paiN | 10 Inferno 13-3 | 11 Anubis 14-16 | 21 | Split | Over ✓ | OTBO |
| 2026-10-22 | ShindeN | 7 Dust2 13-4 | 9 Mirage 16-14 | 16 | W | Under ✗ | OTBO |
| 2026-10-22 | BESTIA | 5 Dust2 7-13 | 7 Mirage 7-13 | 12 | L | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-10-22 | Turma do Pagode | 13 Anubis 13-10 | 15 Cache 16-14 | 28 | W | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-10-11 | DENDELE | 8 Mirage 8-13 | 9 Inferno 11-13 | 17 | L | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-10-11 | NRG | 5 Inferno 4-13 | 12 Dust2 13-7 | 17 | Split | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-10 | Without a Roof | 9 Dust2 13-4 | 6 Nuke 13-9 | 15 | W | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-27 | paiN | 10 Anubis 13-4 | 7 Cache 13-11 | 17 | W | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-26 | Bounty Hunters | 7 Mirage 13-9 | 9 Nuke 13-7 | 16 | W | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-09-24 | Galorys | 11 Cache 16-12 | 10 Inferno 13-6 | 21 | W | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-09-23 | Juventus | 6 Anubis 13-6 | 11 Nuke 13-3 | 17 | W | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-19 | BESTIA | 12 Mirage 10-13 | 4 Nuke 13-2 | 16 | Split | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-17 | Bounty Hunters | 12 Mirage 13-6 | 7 Cache 8-13 | 19 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-09-06 | Bounty Hunters | 9 Mirage 13-10 | 13 Nuke 11-13 | 22 | Split | Over ✓ |








































































































































































