KillsBetter playTake
Line
23.5
Pick
OVER
Projection
28.74
Hit
65.4%
EV+
+13.3%
Edge
+5.2
L10
70%
HeadshotsRisk
Line
16.5
Pick
OVER
Projection
16.79
Hit
54.8%
EV+
-5.1%
Edge
+0.3
L10
60%

Rifler
cobrazera
The Mongolz vs Aurora Gaming
RISK · OVER 16.5
PP14
▼ L5 16.4 · L20 17.6Risk · Edge +0.3 far below ±2.0HIGHER-ONLY · Over only
Hit rates at 16.5 (Over)
L5
60%
3/5
L10
60%
6/10
L20
60%
12/20
H2H
100%
2/2
Volatility
Medium
±4.54
Previous meeting · vs Aurora Gaming
2/2 hit · avg 18.5 headshots on Maps 1-2
2026-10-24 · PGL Masters Bucharest 2026
Inferno 12-16 · Nuke 13-2 · Split
20
Over 16.5 ✓
2026-05-13 · PGL Astana 2026
Overpass 11-13 · Mirage 10-13 · L
17
Over 16.5 ✓
LAN vs online form
LAN
17.6
12/20 hit at 16.5
Online · this match
—
no series
Avg headshots on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm cobrazera is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 16.5
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match schedule
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
underdog · Headshots · Maps 1-2Risk
What to watch · Needs 17+ HS (~29 kills at 58.7% HS): 0.639 KPR over ~44 rounds. Main danger: a fast 2-0 (50%) or blowout (17.8%) cuts rounds.
Side
Over
Projection
16.79
Raw edge
+0.3
Cons. hit
54.8%
EV+
-5.1%
Rating
3.6/10
Exp. rounds
44
Line
16.5
Verdict
Risk
Plain model
54.8%
-1.3 →
Learned
53.5%
what past results change
learning 1x
learning 1x
Same-line track record · Over 14.5-18.5
All players · Headshots
59.5%247 picks
This player
66.7%3 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 52.5% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±2 (pref ±2.5)
- Edge +0.3 below ±2.0 minimum
- EV+ not positive at current payout
- Standard line: higher_only line pays differently than 3x
Sharp checks · 5/6
Big enough sample · 20 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60% · L10 60.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55% · L20 60.0% at this line
Game script fits · 2-0 sweep 50% (Overs need rounds)
Standard line · higher_only line pays differently than 3x
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
Projection = 70% model (16.95) + 30% last-5 average
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 17.5 headshots vs line 16.5 (6/10 over). KPR 0.70, HS 59%. Next: vs Aurora Gaming, LAN/Online unknown.
Strongest: L10 average 17.5 against a 16.5 line
Biggest risk: Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
MIXED
The call
PASS
Value
NO VALUE
- • Model 16.79 vs line 16.5 → +0.29 (1.8%)
- • Form L5 60% · L10 60% over this line
- • Win chance unknown — no favourite adjustment
- • Expected 44 rounds · 2-0 50% · OT 7.8%
Performance (last 40 maps)
Kills/Map
15.03
HS/Map
8.82
K/D
1.07
KPR
0.7
ADR
76.4
KAST
71.5%
HS%
58.7%
Multi-kill
17.3%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Inferno)8.9 · KPR 0.699 · 21.7r
Map 2 (Mirage)8.1 · KPR 0.618 · 22.3r
Required KPR to clear0.639
Base kills (Maps 1-2)28.95
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.-0.24%
Final projected kills28.88
× realistic HS% (58.7%)16.79
Aurora Gaming gives up (91 series)-0.5% vs norm
Likely HS totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Over 16.5. Model: 52.5% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps17.8%
~14 HS · 37r25.9%
Normal47.2%
~17 HS · 43r48.6%
Close maps27.2%
~18 HS · 47r61.5%
Overtime7.8%
~20 HS · 53r78.5%
Match context
Oct 24, 07:00 AMOnline
Win chance source: —
Win chance unknown — no favourite adjustment
M1 Inferno
21.7r
-1% KPR here
M2 Mirage
22.3r
-12% KPR here
Total
44r
2-0 sweep50%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)35%
Overtime7.8%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)17.8%
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Inferno / Mirage
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 16.5 (Over) · avg 17.5 · hit 6/10 · tap a bar
16.5
Nearby lines
| 14.5 Over | 62.3% | |
| 15.5 Over | 59.2% | |
| 16.5 Over | 54.8% | OFFERED |
| 17.5 Over | 49.7% | below BE |
| 18.5 Over | 42.6% | below BE |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 16.5
Line movement
first 16.5→16.5no change
- Moved up15.5 → 16.5Oct 24, 09:34 PM
- Moved down16.5 → 15.5Oct 24, 08:20 PM
- Back on board16.5 → 16.5Oct 24, 08:14 PM
- Pulled16.5Oct 24, 07:12 AM
- First seen16.5Oct 23, 12:41 PM
Map stats
Inferno
10 maps
Kills
15.2
KPR
0.7
HS%
53.9%
K/D
1.08
Mirage
10 maps
Kills
13.4
KPR
0.59
HS%
64.2%
K/D
0.85
Ancient
6 maps
Kills
16.5
KPR
0.74
HS%
59.6%
K/D
1.22
Nuke
5 maps
Kills
17.2
KPR
0.81
HS%
58.1%
K/D
1.39
Dust2
4 maps
Kills
15
KPR
0.7
HS%
56.7%
K/D
1.18
Overpass
3 maps
Kills
14.7
KPR
0.72
HS%
63.6%
K/D
1.05
Cache
2 maps
Kills
13
KPR
0.68
HS%
53.8%
K/D
0.93
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-24 | Aurora | 10 Inferno 12-16 | 10 Nuke 13-2 | 20 | Split | Over ✓ | OTBO |
| 2026-10-22 | PARIVISION | 8 Ancient 13-6 | 6 Mirage 13-11 | 14 | W | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-10-22 | BIG | 5 Cache 4-13 | 3 Inferno 13-3 | 8 | Split | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-21 | PRIVATE | 6 Mirage 13-6 | 12 Ancient 13-7 | 18 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-10-21 | magic | 11 Inferno 13-9 | 11 Ancient 13-10 | 22 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-10-20 | BIG | 9 Cache 8-13 | 5 Mirage 4-13 | 14 | L | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-19 | Alliance | 9 Inferno 13-8 | 12 Dust2 13-11 | 21 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-09-09 | 5star | 11 Inferno 9-13 | 11 Nuke 11-13 | 22 | L | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-09-08 | MIBR | 8 Ancient 13-5 | 14 Mirage 10-13 | 22 | Split | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-06-15 | 9z | 7 Inferno 8-13 | 7 Overpass 8-13 | 14 | L | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-06-14 | Monte | 9 Nuke 9-13 | 7 Inferno 13-7 | 16 | Split | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-06-13 | Natus Vincere | 10 Nuke 13-8 | 10 Ancient 13-16 | 20 | Split | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-06-12 | B8 | 9 Mirage 16-14 | 13 Overpass 13-3 | 22 | W | Over ✓ | OTBO |
| 2026-06-11 | BetBoom | 9 Dust2 13-11 | 7 Mirage 6-13 | 16 | Split | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-05-22 | Legacy | 10 Inferno 11-13 | 10 Mirage 13-10 | 20 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-05-22 | PARIVISION | 7 Dust2 13-4 | 7 Mirage 13-11 | 14 | W | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-05-21 | Liquid | 13 Mirage 11-13 | 8 Inferno 13-7 | 21 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-05-20 | B8 | 10 Ancient 11-13 | 10 Nuke 13-11 | 20 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-05-13 | Aurora | 8 Overpass 11-13 | 9 Mirage 10-13 | 17 | L | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-05-12 | Falcons | 6 Dust2 8-13 | 6 Inferno 13-11 | 12 | Split | Under ✗ |







































































































































































