KillsBetter playRisk
Line
29.5
Pick
UNDER
Projection
28.67
Hit
45.2%
EV+
-21.7%
Edge
-0.8
L10
50%
HeadshotsRisk
Line
19.5
Pick
UNDER
Projection
19.44
Hit
39.6%
EV+
-31.5%
Edge
-0.1
L10
30%

Rifler
xelex
MOUZ vs Liquid
RISK · UNDER 19.5
SAME LINE ON ALL APPSPP19.5UD19.5
▲ L5 21.0 · L20 20.0Risk · Recent form (L5/L10) leans the other way +1
Hit rates at 19.5 (Under)
L5
20%
1/5
L10
30%
3/10
L20
55%
11/20
H2H
0%
0/1
Volatility
Medium
±5.27
Previous meeting · vs Liquid
0/1 hit · avg 25 headshots on Maps 1-2
2026-10-24 · PGL Masters Bucharest 2026
Ancient 16-13 · Inferno 12-16 · Split
25
Over 19.5 ✗
LAN vs online form
LAN
20
11/20 hit at 19.5
Online · this match
—
no series
Avg headshots on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Veto confirmed — re-check map order
- Confirm xelex is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 19.5
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match schedule
prizepicks · Headshots · Maps 1-2Risk
What to watch · Stays under with 19 HS or fewer (under ~30 kills at 67% HS): below 0.65 KPR over ~45 rounds. Main danger: overtime (14.4%) or long close maps add rounds.
Side
Under
Projection
19.44
Raw edge
-0.1
Cons. hit
39.6%
EV+
-31.5%
Rating
1/10
Exp. rounds
44.8
Line
19.5
Verdict
Risk
Plain model
39.6%
+8.6 →
Learned
48.2%
what past results change
learning 1x
learning 1x
Same-line track record · Under 17.5-21.5
All players · Headshots
48.9%88 picks
This player
0%1 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 50.4% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±2 (pref ±2.5)
- Edge -0.1 below ±2.0 minimum
- Recent form (L5/L10) does not lean the same way
- EV+ not positive at current payout
- L10 hit rate ≥ 60%: L10 30.0% at this line
Sharp checks · 5/6
Big enough sample · 20 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60% · L10 30.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55% · L20 55.0% at this line
Game script fits · OT chance 14% (Unders hate OT)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
Projection = 70% model (18.77) + 30% last-5 average
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 20.8 headshots vs line 19.0 (7/10 over). KPR 0.69, HS 67%. Next: vs Liquid, LAN/Online unknown.
Strongest: L10 average 20.8 against a 19.0 line
Biggest risk: Normal CS2 variance
The read
Signal
MIXED
The call
PASS
Value
NO VALUE
- • Model 19.44 vs line 19.5 → -0.06 (-0.3%)
- • Form L5 20% · L10 30% under this line
- • Win chance unknown — no favourite adjustment
- • Expected 44.8 rounds · 2-0 50% · OT 14.4%
Performance (last 40 maps)
Kills/Map
14.93
HS/Map
10
K/D
1.04
KPR
0.69
ADR
74.7
KAST
72.7%
HS%
67%
Multi-kill
17.4%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Ancient)9.5 · KPR 0.616 · 23.1r
Map 2 (Inferno)9.3 · KPR 0.637 · 21.7r
Required KPR to clear0.65
Base kills (Maps 1-2)28.05
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.-0.11%
Final projected kills28.02
× realistic HS% (67%)19.44
Liquid gives up (41 series)-8.4% vs norm
Likely HS totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Under 19.5. Model: 50.4% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps24.4%
~16 HS · 38r77.3%
Normal44.8%
~19 HS · 45r53%
Close maps16.4%
~21 HS · 48r41.3%
Overtime14.4%
~23 HS · 54r23.4%
Match context
Oct 24, 10:00 AMOnline
Win chance source: —
Win chance unknown — no favourite adjustment
M1 Ancient
23.1r
-10% KPR here
M2 Inferno
21.7r
-7% KPR here
Total
44.8r
2-0 sweep50%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)30.8%
Overtime14.4%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)24.4%
Veto confirmed (HLTV): Ancient / Inferno
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 19.5 (Under) · avg 20.8 · hit 3/10 · tap a bar
19.5
Nearby lines
| 17.5 Under | 30.7% | below BE |
| 18.5 Under | 35% | below BE |
| 19.5 Under | 39.6% | OFFERED |
| 20.5 Under | 48.1% | below BE |
| 21.5 Under | 54.3% | below BE |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 19.5
Line movement
first 19→19.5+0.5
- Back on board19 → 19.5Oct 24, 10:16 PM
- Pulled19Oct 24, 09:11 AM
- Back on board19 → 19Oct 24, 09:10 AM
- Pulled19Oct 24, 09:10 AM
- First seen19Oct 24, 12:00 AM
Map stats
Mirage
10 maps
Kills
16.7
KPR
0.76
HS%
65.9%
K/D
1.18
Cache
7 maps
Kills
12.6
KPR
0.61
HS%
67%
K/D
0.99
Dust2
7 maps
Kills
16
KPR
0.75
HS%
67%
K/D
1.26
Inferno
6 maps
Kills
13.3
KPR
0.61
HS%
71.2%
K/D
0.9
Ancient
6 maps
Kills
13.8
KPR
0.58
HS%
63.9%
K/D
0.8
Nuke
4 maps
Kills
16.8
KPR
0.74
HS%
68.7%
K/D
1.12
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-24 | Liquid | 17 Ancient 16-13 | 8 Inferno 12-16 | 25 | Split | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-10-11 | Vitality | 9 Cache 8-13 | 7 Inferno 7-13 | 16 | L | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-10-10 | Spirit | 11 Dust2 13-7 | 9 Mirage 5-13 | 20 | Split | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-09 | FURIA | 15 Nuke 13-11 | 9 Inferno 13-6 | 24 | W | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-10-05 | Spirit | 11 Dust2 13-5 | 9 Mirage 13-11 | 20 | W | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-04 | FURIA | 7 Cache 13-4 | 5 Mirage 13-7 | 12 | W | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-03 | M80 | 11 Cache 13-9 | 4 Mirage 13-6 | 15 | W | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-09-19 | FURIA | 7 Cache 8-13 | 24 Mirage 19-16 | 31 | Split | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-09-18 | Natus Vincere | 8 Cache 10-13 | 13 Inferno 13-10 | 21 | Split | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-09-17 | NRG | 12 Cache 11-13 | 12 Inferno 13-5 | 24 | Split | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-06 | Spirit | 5 Dust2 8-13 | 14 Mirage 13-11 | 19 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-09-05 | Vitality | 14 Dust2 13-11 | 13 Mirage 13-7 | 27 | W | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-08-31 | Falcons | 10 Nuke 6-13 | 9 Ancient 13-6 | 19 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-08-29 | Inner Circle | 7 Ancient 13-4 | 9 Mirage 13-5 | 16 | W | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-08-27 | 9z | 5 Cache 13-4 | 14 Nuke 13-7 | 19 | W | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-08-21 | FUT | 20 Dust2 13-16 | 7 Ancient 5-13 | 27 | L | Over ✗ | OTBO |
| 2026-08-19 | GamerLegion | 9 Mirage 13-11 | 9 Ancient 19-22 | 18 | Split | Under ✓ | OT |
| 2026-08-16 | PARIVISION | 9 Dust2 13-4 | 8 Inferno 13-10 | 17 | W | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-08-14 | FUT | 4 Ancient 6-13 | 7 Nuke 16-12 | 11 | Split | Under ✓ | OT |
| 2026-08-02 | Spirit | 5 Dust2 13-8 | 14 Mirage 13-4 | 19 | W | Under ✓ | BO |







































































































































































