KillsBetter playRisk
Line
28.5
Pick
UNDER
Projection
27.78
Hit
45.8%
EV+
-20.6%
Edge
-0.7
L10
67%
HeadshotsRisk
Line
14.5
Pick
UNDER
Projection
15.67
Hit
37.3%
EV+
-35.4%
Edge
+1.2
L10
50%
Rifler
finW
INOX Division vs Brute
RISK · UNDER 28.5
Risk · Edge -0.7 far below ±3.0
Hit rates at 28.5 (Under)
L5
80%
4/5
L10
67%
4/6
L20
67%
4/6
H2H
N/A
Volatility
Low
±5
Previous meeting · vs Brute
No meeting with Brute in his last 6 series.
LAN vs online form
LAN
—
no series
Online · this match
27
4/6 hit at 28.5
Avg kills on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm finW is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 28.5
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 59.0%
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
underdog · Kills · Maps 1-2Risk
What to watch · Stays under with 28 kills or fewer: below 0.609 KPR over ~47 rounds. Main danger: overtime (14.7%) or long close maps add rounds.
Side
Under
Projection
27.78
Raw edge
-0.7
Cons. hit
45.8%
EV+
-20.6%
Rating
1/10
Exp. rounds
46.8
Line
28.5
Verdict
Risk
Plain model
45.8%
-4.2 →
Learned
41.6%
what past results change
learning 1x
learning 1x
Same-line track record · Under 26.5-30.5
All players · Kills
46.4%334 picks
This player
—0 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 55.8% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±3 (pref ±4)
- Edge -0.7 below ±3.0 minimum
- EV+ not positive at current payout
- Big enough sample: 6 recent series (need 8+)
- Under risk — team 59% to win; favourites win more rounds and their players usually get more kills.
Sharp checks · 5/6
Big enough sample · 6 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60% · L10 66.7% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55% · L20 66.7% at this line
Game script fits · OT chance 15% (Unders hate OT)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
Projection = 70% model (28.54) + 30% last-5 average
Evidence & risk
Last 6 series Maps 1-2: avg 27.0 kills vs line 28.5 (2/6 over). KPR 0.65, HS 57%. Next: vs BRUTE, Online.
Strongest: L10 average 27.0 against a 28.5 line
Biggest risk: High 2-0 sweep chance (72%) — fewer total rounds
- High 2-0 sweep chance (72%) — fewer total rounds
- 42% of recent maps were blowouts (13-5 or worse)
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
- Small sample (6 series)
The read
Signal
PARTIAL
The call
PASS
Value
NO VALUE
- • Model 27.78 vs line 28.5 → -0.72 (-2.5%)
- • Form L5 80% · L10 66.7% under this line
- • Close match (45–65%) → longer maps: +1 round per map
- • Expected 46.8 rounds · 2-0 72% · OT 14.7%
Performance (last 12 maps)
Kills/Map
13.5
HS/Map
7.67
K/D
0.99
KPR
0.65
ADR
72
KAST
0%
HS%
56.8%
Multi-kill
15.2%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Nuke)15.3 · KPR 0.685 · 22.7r
Map 2 (Ancient)13.3 · KPR 0.561 · 24.1r
Required KPR to clear0.609
Base kills (Maps 1-2)29.07
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.-1.83%
Final projected kills28.54
Brute gives up (32 series)-5.6% vs norm
Likely kills totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Under 28.5. Model: 55.8% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps38%
~23 kills · 39r85.2%
Normal47.3%
~30 kills · 50r43.2%
Overtime14.7%
~33 kills · 56r21.2%
Match context
Oct 24, 02:00 PMOnlineCCT Europe 2026 Series 11
Win chance source: Polymarket 59.0%
Close match (45–65%) → longer maps: +1 round per map
Heads upUnder risk — team 59% to win; favourites win more rounds and their players usually get more kills.
M1 Nuke
22.7r
+6% KPR here
M2 Ancient
24.1r
-13% KPR here
Total
46.8r
2-0 sweep72%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)14%
Overtime14.7%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)38%
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Nuke / Ancient
Recent Maps 1-2 form
6 series · line 28.5 (Under) · avg 27.0 · hit 4/6 · tap a bar
28.5
Nearby lines
| 26.5 Under | 36% | below BE |
| 27.5 Under | 39.6% | below BE |
| 28.5 Under | 45.8% | OFFERED |
| 29.5 Under | 49.4% | below BE |
| 30.5 Under | 52.7% | below BE |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 28.5
Line movement
first 28.5→offno change
- Pulled28.5Oct 24, 02:12 PM
- Back on board28.5 → 28.5Oct 24, 12:53 PM
- Pulled28.5Oct 24, 12:53 PM
- First seen28.5Oct 24, 12:52 PM
Map stats
Nuke
5 maps
Kills
15.4
KPR
0.71
HS%
59.7%
K/D
1.08
Inferno
2 maps
Kills
13.5
KPR
0.77
HS%
33.3%
K/D
1.42
Ancient
2 maps
Kills
11
KPR
0.43
HS%
63.6%
K/D
0.56
Anubis
2 maps
Kills
11.5
KPR
0.72
HS%
60.9%
K/D
1.35
Dust2
1 maps
Kills
13
KPR
0.57
HS%
69.2%
K/D
0.76
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-18 | Inner Circle Prospect | 18 Ancient 19-17 | 16 Nuke 13-9 | 34 | W | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-08-16 | Vitality Academy | 4 Ancient 13-2 | 16 Inferno 13-3 | 20 | W | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-08-14 | VP.Prodigy | 17 Nuke 16-14 | 9 Anubis 13-1 | 26 | W | Under ✓ | OTBO |
| 2026-08-09 | INFURITY | 11 Inferno 13-6 | 11 Nuke 13-6 | 22 | W | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-03-26 | bankaPEPSI | 13 Dust2 10-13 | 15 Nuke 5-13 | 28 | L | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-03-24 | NAVI Junior | 14 Anubis 13-5 | 18 Nuke 13-7 | 32 | W | Over ✗ | BO |









































































































































































