KillsRisk
Line
31
Pick
UNDER
Projection
31.05
Hit
35.7%
EV+
-38.1%
Edge
+0.1
L10
40%
HeadshotsBetter playRisk
Line
18.5
Pick
UNDER
Projection
18.38
Hit
37.3%
EV+
-35.5%
Edge
-0.1
L10
40%

Rifler
F1KU
Metizport vs BAKS
RISK · UNDER 18.5
SAME LINE ON ALL APPSPP18.5SL18.5
▲ L5 21.4 · L20 17.6Risk · Edge -0.1 far below ±2.0 +1
Hit rates at 18.5 (Under)
L5
20%
1/5
L10
40%
4/10
L20
50%
9/18
H2H
N/A
Volatility
High
±5.71
Previous meeting · vs BAKS
No meeting with BAKS in his last 18 series.
LAN vs online form
LAN
13.5
3/4 hit at 18.5
Online · this match
18.8
6/14 hit at 18.5
Avg headshots on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm F1KU is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 18.5
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 72.5%
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
prizepicks · Headshots · Maps 1-2Risk
What to watch · Stays under with 18 HS or fewer (under ~33 kills at 58.2% HS): below 0.75 KPR over ~42 rounds. Main danger: overtime (20.7%) or long close maps add rounds.
Side
Under
Projection
18.38
Raw edge
-0.1
Cons. hit
37.3%
EV+
-35.5%
Rating
1/10
Exp. rounds
42.4
Line
18.5
Verdict
Risk
Plain model
37.3%
-7.8 →
Learned
29.5%
what past results change
learning 1x
learning 1x
Same-line track record · Under 16.5-20.5
All players · Headshots
43.2%146 picks
This player
50%2 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 50.8% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±2 (pref ±2.5)
- Edge -0.1 below ±2.0 minimum
- EV+ not positive at current payout
- High form volatility
- L10 hit rate ≥ 60%: L10 40.0% at this line
- L20 hit rate ≥ 55%: L20 50.0% at this line
- Under risk — team 72% to win; favourites win more rounds and their players usually get more kills.
Sharp checks · 4/6
Big enough sample · 18 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60% · L10 40.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55% · L20 50.0% at this line
Game script fits · OT chance 21% (Unders hate OT)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
Projection = 70% model (17.09) + 30% last-5 average
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 18.3 headshots vs line 18.5 (6/10 over). KPR 0.69, HS 58%. Next: vs BAKS, Online.
Strongest: L10 average 18.3 against a 18.5 line
Biggest risk: High 2-0 sweep chance (74%) — fewer total rounds
- High 2-0 sweep chance (74%) — fewer total rounds
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
MIXED
The call
PASS
Value
NO VALUE
- • Model 18.38 vs line 18.5 → -0.12 (-0.6%)
- • Form L5 20% · L10 40% under this line
- • Heavy favourite (≥70%) → shorter maps (−1.5/map) but easier kills (+8% KPR)
- • Expected 42.4 rounds · 2-0 73.5% · OT 20.7%
Performance (last 36 maps)
Kills/Map
15.14
HS/Map
8.81
K/D
0.97
KPR
0.69
ADR
74.1
KAST
81%
HS%
58.2%
Multi-kill
16.9%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Nuke)9.7 · KPR 0.746 · 22.3r
Map 2 (Inferno)7.4 · KPR 0.626 · 20.1r
Required KPR to clear0.75
Base kills (Maps 1-2)29.23
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.+0.45%
Final projected kills29.36
× realistic HS% (58.2%)18.38
BAKS gives up (31 series)-0.1% vs norm
Likely HS totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Under 18.5. Model: 50.8% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps16.5%
~15 HS · 36r75.1%
Normal54.4%
~18 HS · 41r59.4%
Close maps8.4%
~20 HS · 45r43.8%
Overtime20.7%
~22 HS · 51r26.8%
Match context
Oct 25, 12:00 PMOnlineNODWIN Clutch Series 13
Win chance source: Polymarket 72.5%
Heavy favourite (≥70%) → shorter maps (−1.5/map) but easier kills (+8% KPR)
Heads upUnder risk — team 72% to win; favourites win more rounds and their players usually get more kills.
M1 Nuke
22.3r
M2 Inferno
20.1r
-16% KPR here
Total
42.4r
2-0 sweep73.5%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)29.1%
Overtime20.7%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)16.5%
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Nuke / Inferno
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 18.5 (Under) · avg 18.3 · hit 4/10 · tap a bar
18.5
Nearby lines
| 16.5 Under | 29.1% | below BE |
| 17.5 Under | 33.1% | below BE |
| 18.5 Under | 37.3% | OFFERED |
| 19.5 Under | 41.4% | below BE |
| 20.5 Under | 45.3% | below BE |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 18.5
Line movement
first 18.5→18.5no change
- First seen18.5Oct 24, 08:30 PM
Map stats
Nuke
14 maps
Kills
16.8
KPR
0.69
HS%
57.9%
K/D
1.01
Inferno
7 maps
Kills
11.6
KPR
0.53
HS%
56.8%
K/D
0.79
Mirage
5 maps
Kills
14.4
KPR
0.59
HS%
59.7%
K/D
0.86
Cache
5 maps
Kills
18.2
KPR
0.78
HS%
59.3%
K/D
1.25
Anubis
3 maps
Kills
14.3
KPR
0.67
HS%
62.8%
K/D
1.3
Ancient
2 maps
Kills
11.5
KPR
0.5
HS%
47.8%
K/D
0.7
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-22 | Sangal | 9 Cache 16-14 | 15 Nuke 17-19 | 24 | Split | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-10-21 | GenOne | 10 Cache 13-3 | 4 Nuke 13-2 | 14 | W | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-20 | ex-RUSTEC | 12 Anubis 13-7 | 11 Nuke 13-9 | 23 | W | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-10-07 | K27 | 13 Nuke 13-11 | 11 Mirage 8-13 | 24 | Split | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-09-27 | Inner Circle Academy | 12 Anubis 13-9 | 10 Nuke 13-9 | 22 | W | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-09-26 | aimclub | 4 Mirage 13-6 | 6 Inferno 7-13 | 10 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-09-25 | HAVU | 5 Nuke 8-13 | 5 Inferno 13-6 | 10 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-09-25 | Optibet | 6 Ancient 9-13 | 6 Nuke 13-8 | 12 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-09-14 | Nemiga | 10 Mirage 14-16 | 11 Nuke 8-13 | 21 | L | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-09-13 | ex-Zero Tenacity | 15 Cache 13-6 | 8 Nuke 14-16 | 23 | Split | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-09-11 | Lavked | 7 Inferno 13-11 | 13 Mirage 16-14 | 20 | W | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-09-05 | 9INE | 21 Nuke 25-23 | 5 Ancient 13-11 | 26 | W | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-09-04 | Sashi | 8 Inferno 16-13 | 15 Cache 16-13 | 23 | W | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-09-02 | Walczaki | 9 Inferno 13-6 | 3 Anubis 13-9 | 12 | W | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-09-01 | PCIFIC | 6 Inferno 8-13 | 9 Nuke 13-9 | 15 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-08-31 | ASTRAL | 5 Cache 9-13 | 9 Nuke 13-8 | 14 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-08-31 | PCIFIC | 8 Nuke 13-7 | 5 Inferno 13-7 | 13 | W | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-08-28 | Bushido Wildcats | 5 Mirage 9-13 | 6 Nuke 4-13 | 11 | L | Under ✓ | BO |








































































































































































