KillsPlayable
Line
29.5
Pick
OVER
Projection
32.62
Hit
62.6%
EV+
+8.4%
Edge
+3.1
L10
70%
HeadshotsPlayable
Line
13.5
Pick
OVER
Projection
15.56
Hit
62.4%
EV+
+8.0%
Edge
+2.1
L10
60%

Rifler
shadiy
Alter Ego vs NEXVOID
PLAYABLE · OVER 29.5
BEST OVER · SL 28.5UD29.5SL28.5
≈ L5 31.0 · L20 30.9
Hit rates at 29.5 (Over)
L5
80%
4/5
L10
70%
7/10
L20
60%
12/20
H2H
N/A
Volatility
Medium
±6.54
Previous meeting · vs NEXVOID
No meeting with NEXVOID in his last 20 series.
LAN vs online form
LAN · this match
28
2/6 hit at 29.5
Online
32.1
10/14 hit at 29.5
Avg kills on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm shadiy is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 30
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Bookmaker odds via bo3.gg
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
underdog · Kills · Maps 1-2Playable
What to watch · Needs 30+ kills: 0.648 KPR over ~46 rounds. Main danger: a fast 2-0 (55.5%) or blowout (20%) cuts rounds.
Side
Over
Projection
32.62
Raw edge
+3.1
Cons. hit
62.6%
EV+
+8.4%
Rating
8.9/10
Exp. rounds
45.5
Line
29.5
Verdict
Playable
Plain model
62.6%
-2.5 →
Learned
60.1%
what past results change
learning 1x
learning 1x
Same-line track record · Over 27.5-31.5
All players · Kills
56%332 picks
This player
—0 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 68.3% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±3 (pref ±4)
Clears edge, form, EV+, volatility and every sharp check
Sharp checks · 6/6
Big enough sample · 20 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60% · L10 70.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55% · L20 60.0% at this line
Game script fits · 2-0 sweep 56% (Overs need rounds)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
Projection = 70% model (33.31) + 30% last-5 average
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 32.2 kills vs line 29.5 (7/10 over). KPR 0.70, HS 48%. Next: vs NEXVOID, LAN.
Strongest: L10 average 32.2 against a 29.5 line
Biggest risk: Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
ALIGNED
The call
TAKE OVER
Value
THIN
- • Model 32.62 vs line 29.5 → +3.12 (10.6%)
- • Form L5 80% · L10 70% over this line
- • Slight lean (40–45% / 65–70%) → no adjustment
- • Expected 45.5 rounds · 2-0 55.5% · OT 14.4%
Performance (last 40 maps)
Kills/Map
15.45
HS/Map
7.45
K/D
1.04
KPR
0.7
ADR
80.1
KAST
79%
HS%
48.2%
Multi-kill
14.4%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Dust2)16.5 · KPR 0.721 · 22.8r
Map 2 (Ancient)16.9 · KPR 0.742 · 22.7r
Required KPR to clear0.648
Base kills (Maps 1-2)33.28
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.+0.08%
Final projected kills33.31
NEXVOID gives up (24 series)+3.4% vs norm
Likely kills totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Over 29.5. Model: 68.3% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps20%
~27 kills · 38r33.7%
Normal45%
~32 kills · 44r64.4%
Close maps20.6%
~35 kills · 49r81.2%
Overtime14.4%
~39 kills · 55r94%
Match context
Oct 26, 03:00 AMLANDFRAG Invitational 2026
Win chance source: Bookmaker odds via bo3.gg
Slight lean (40–45% / 65–70%) → no adjustment
Game scriptIdeal Over range — team 42% to win (40-70%), competitive maps expected.
M1 Dust2
22.8r
+3% KPR here
M2 Ancient
22.7r
+6% KPR here
Total
45.5r
2-0 sweep55.5%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)35%
Overtime14.4%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)20%
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Dust2 / Ancient
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 29.5 (Over) · avg 32.2 · hit 7/10 · tap a bar
29.5
Nearby lines
| 27.5 Over | 65% | |
| 28.5 Over | 64% | |
| 29.5 Over | 62.6% | OFFERED |
| 30.5 Over | 59.2% | |
| 31.5 Over | 52.6% | below BE |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 30
Line movement
first 27.5→29.5+2
- Moved up28.5 → 29.5Oct 24, 11:46 PM
- Moved up27.5 → 28.5Oct 24, 03:27 PM
- First seen27.5Oct 24, 01:02 PM
Map stats
Dust2
9 maps
Kills
16.9
KPR
0.73
HS%
53.3%
K/D
1.13
Ancient
8 maps
Kills
17.5
KPR
0.76
HS%
35%
K/D
1.15
Inferno
7 maps
Kills
11.6
KPR
0.56
HS%
55.6%
K/D
0.79
Mirage
6 maps
Kills
13.8
KPR
0.65
HS%
49.4%
K/D
0.93
Cache
4 maps
Kills
15
KPR
0.62
HS%
46.7%
K/D
0.9
Nuke
3 maps
Kills
21
KPR
0.89
HS%
57.1%
K/D
1.5
Anubis
3 maps
Kills
13
KPR
0.66
HS%
46.2%
K/D
1
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-14 | Lynn Vision | 14 Anubis 13-9 | 17 Inferno 11-13 | 31 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-10-13 | Just Swing | 13 Cache 10-13 | 17 Dust2 19-15 | 30 | Split | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-10-12 | Chinggis Warriors | 14 Inferno 13-9 | 17 Dust2 13-9 | 31 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-10-11 | The KnockoutX | 14 Dust2 13-10 | 11 Cache 13-10 | 25 | W | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-10-10 | Vitalem Aerem | 20 Ancient 16-14 | 18 Mirage 13-6 | 38 | W | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-10-09 | The Huns | 28 Ancient 13-11 | 15 Cache 12-16 | 43 | Split | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-10-08 | Kaleido | 18 Ancient 13-3 | 22 Dust2 14-16 | 40 | Split | Over ✓ | OTBO |
| 2026-10-07 | Legion | 13 Dust2 13-2 | 9 Anubis 13-7 | 22 | W | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-08-30 | Just Swing | 21 Cache 13-9 | 15 Dust2 11-13 | 36 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-08-28 | Nas | 11 Mirage 13-8 | 15 Dust2 13-3 | 26 | W | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-08-27 | Kaleido | 22 Dust2 10-13 | 17 Ancient 13-4 | 39 | Split | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-05-28 | SemperFi | 10 Inferno 9-13 | 12 Mirage 7-13 | 22 | L | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-05-27 | SemperFi | 17 Dust2 13-9 | 20 Nuke 13-10 | 37 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-05-13 | SemperFi | 6 Inferno 4-13 | 25 Nuke 13-16 | 31 | L | Over ✓ | OTBO |
| 2026-05-12 | SemperFi | 8 Inferno 6-13 | 20 Mirage 11-13 | 28 | L | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-05-11 | SemperFi | 14 Inferno 13-5 | 15 Ancient 8-13 | 29 | Split | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-04-04 | SemperFi | 14 Ancient 11-13 | 10 Mirage 10-13 | 24 | L | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-04-02 | FlyQuest | 14 Ancient 13-16 | 16 Anubis 4-13 | 30 | L | Over ✓ | OTBO |
| 2026-04-01 | TYLOO | 14 Ancient 13-11 | 12 Inferno 13-9 | 26 | W | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-03-27 | SemperFi | 18 Nuke 13-6 | 12 Mirage 13-7 | 30 | W | Over ✓ |









































































































































































