KillsRisk
Line
29.5
Pick
OVER
Projection
30.05
Hit
46.7%
EV+
-19.2%
Edge
+0.6
L10
20%
HeadshotsBetter playRisk
Line
10.5
Pick
OVER
Projection
11.44
Hit
56.1%
EV+
-2.8%
Edge
+0.9
L10
50%

AWPer
tronic
Nuclear TigeRES vs FORZE Reload
RISK · OVER 10.5
≈ L5 11.2 · L20 10.9Risk · Edge +0.9 far below ±2.0
Hit rates at 10.5 (Over)
L5
40%
2/5
L10
50%
5/10
L20
46%
6/13
H2H
N/A
Volatility
Medium
±4.45
Previous meeting · vs FORZE Reload
No meeting with FORZE Reload in his last 13 series.
LAN vs online form
LAN
—
no series
Online · this match
10.9
6/13 hit at 10.5
Avg headshots on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm tronic is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 10.5
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 63.5%
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
prizepicks · Headshots · Maps 1-2Risk
What to watch · Needs 11+ HS (~29 kills at 38.3% HS): 0.578 KPR over ~47 rounds. Main danger: a fast 2-0 (54%) or blowout (23.4%) cuts rounds.
Side
Over
Projection
11.44
Raw edge
+0.9
Cons. hit
56.1%
EV+
-2.8%
Rating
5.4/10
Exp. rounds
47.4
Line
10.5
Verdict
Risk
Plain model
56.1%
-0.8 →
Learned
55.3%
what past results change
learning 1x
learning 1x
Same-line track record · Over 8.5-12.5
All players · Headshots
57.5%106 picks
This player
0%1 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 58.4% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±2 (pref ±2.5)
- Edge +0.9 below ±2.0 minimum
- EV+ not positive at current payout
- L10 hit rate ≥ 60%: L10 50.0% at this line
- L20 hit rate ≥ 55%: L20 46.2% at this line
Sharp checks · 4/6
Big enough sample · 13 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60% · L10 50.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55% · L20 46.2% at this line
Game script fits · 2-0 sweep 54% (Overs need rounds)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
Projection = 70% model (11.55) + 30% last-5 average
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 11.0 headshots vs line 10.5 (5/10 over). KPR 0.61, HS 38%. Next: vs FORZE Reload, LAN/Online unknown.
Strongest: L10 average 11.0 against a 10.5 line
Biggest risk: Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
PARTIAL
The call
PASS
Value
NO VALUE
- • Model 11.44 vs line 10.5 → +0.94 (9.0%)
- • Form L5 40% · L10 50% over this line
- • Close match (45–65%) → longer maps: +1 round per map
- • Expected 47.4 rounds · 2-0 54% · OT 17.7%
Performance (last 26 maps)
Kills/Map
14.27
HS/Map
5.46
K/D
1.06
KPR
0.61
ADR
64.6
KAST
75.3%
HS%
38.3%
Multi-kill
12.8%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Dust2)5.3 · KPR 0.553 · 24.8r
Map 2 (Nuke)6.3 · KPR 0.725 · 22.6r
Required KPR to clear0.578
Base kills (Maps 1-2)30.1
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.+0.18%
Final projected kills30.15
× realistic HS% (38.3%)11.44
FORZE Reload gives up (41 series)-2.5% vs norm
Likely HS totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Over 10.5. Model: 58.4% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps23.4%
~10 HS · 40r37.6%
Normal39%
~11 HS · 46r52.5%
Close maps19.9%
~12 HS · 51r62.9%
Overtime17.7%
~14 HS · 57r74.2%
Match context
Oct 24, 02:00 PMOnline
Win chance source: Polymarket 63.5%
Close match (45–65%) → longer maps: +1 round per map
Game scriptIdeal Over range — team 64% to win (40-70%), competitive maps expected.
M1 Dust2
24.8r
-9% KPR here
M2 Nuke
22.6r
+19% KPR here
Total
47.4r
2-0 sweep54%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)37.6%
Overtime17.7%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)23.4%
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Dust2 / Nuke
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 10.5 (Over) · avg 11.0 · hit 5/10 · tap a bar
10.5
Nearby lines
| 8.5 Over | 63.4% | |
| 9.5 Over | 59.9% | |
| 10.5 Over | 56.1% | OFFERED |
| 11.5 Over | 51.4% | below BE |
| 12.5 Over | 44.5% | below BE |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 10.5
Line movement
first 10.5→offno change
- Pulled10.5Oct 24, 02:00 PM
- First seen10.5Oct 24, 12:00 AM
Map stats
Dust2
8 maps
Kills
13.1
KPR
0.53
HS%
37.1%
K/D
0.83
Nuke
7 maps
Kills
16.7
KPR
0.77
HS%
40.2%
K/D
1.39
Anubis
4 maps
Kills
13.8
KPR
0.71
HS%
40%
K/D
1.17
Cache
3 maps
Kills
15.7
KPR
0.63
HS%
34%
K/D
1.02
Ancient
2 maps
Kills
13
KPR
0.59
HS%
42.3%
K/D
1.18
Inferno
1 maps
Kills
5
KPR
0.25
HS%
80%
K/D
0.33
Mirage
1 maps
Kills
16
KPR
0.84
HS%
18.8%
K/D
1.45
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-23 | Illyrians | 2 Dust2 13-11 | 6 Ancient 13-3 | 8 | W | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-14 | LPH | 3 Nuke 13-9 | 3 Anubis 13-4 | 6 | W | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-09 | PRIVATE | 4 Anubis 6-13 | 5 Dust2 3-13 | 9 | L | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-30 | Young TigeRES | 12 Nuke 13-4 | 8 Cache 17-19 | 20 | Split | Over ✓ | OTBO |
| 2026-09-26 | Young TigeRES | 6 Nuke 13-9 | 7 Anubis 9-13 | 13 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-09-26 | Eternal Fire | 8 Anubis 13-7 | 5 Dust2 8-13 | 13 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-09-25 | Falcons Force | 5 Nuke 13-5 | 3 Cache 6-13 | 8 | Split | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-25 | ex-Zero Tenacity | 4 Inferno 7-13 | 1 Dust2 16-14 | 5 | Split | Under ✗ | OT |
| 2026-08-02 | Young TigeRES | 2 Nuke 6-13 | 10 Dust2 22-25 | 12 | L | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-08-01 | aimclub | 11 Dust2 13-6 | 5 Cache 7-13 | 16 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-07-30 | Young TigeRES | 14 Nuke 13-10 | 3 Mirage 13-6 | 17 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-07-28 | Aurora Young Blud | 1 Dust2 13-6 | 5 Ancient 16-12 | 6 | W | Under ✗ | OT |
| 2026-07-26 | TrafficPills | 4 Dust2 13-8 | 5 Nuke 14-16 | 9 | Split | Under ✗ | OT |








































































































































































