KillsRisk
Line
26.5
Pick
UNDER
Projection
25.21
Hit
48.5%
EV+
-16.0%
Edge
-1.3
L10
60%
HeadshotsRisk
Line
16.5
Pick
UNDER
Projection
15.91
Hit
48.1%
EV+
-16.6%
Edge
-0.6
L10
60%

Rifler
hfah
Brute vs INOX Division
RISK · UNDER 16.5
BEST UNDER · UD 16.5PP16UD16.5
▲ L5 18.0 · L20 16.0Risk · Edge -0.6 far below ±2.0
Hit rates at 16.5 (Under)
L5
60%
3/5
L10
60%
6/10
L20
70%
14/20
H2H
N/A
Volatility
Medium
±4.98
Previous meeting · vs INOX Division
No meeting with INOX Division in his last 20 series.
LAN vs online form
LAN
15.6
10/13 hit at 16.5
Online · this match
16.7
4/7 hit at 16.5
Avg headshots on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm hfah is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 16.5
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 41.0%
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
underdog · Headshots · Maps 1-2Risk
What to watch · Stays under with 16 HS or fewer (under ~27 kills at 62.1% HS): below 0.656 KPR over ~41 rounds. Main danger: overtime (5.6%) or long close maps add rounds.
Side
Under
Projection
15.91
Raw edge
-0.6
Cons. hit
48.1%
EV+
-16.6%
Rating
1/10
Exp. rounds
40.5
Line
16.5
Verdict
Risk
Plain model
48.1%
-4.1 →
Learned
44%
what past results change
learning 1x
learning 1x
Same-line track record · Under 14.5-18.5
All players · Headshots
40.5%247 picks
This player
—0 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 54.7% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±2 (pref ±2.5)
- Edge -0.6 below ±2.0 minimum
- EV+ not positive at current payout
Sharp checks · 6/6
Big enough sample · 20 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60% · L10 60.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55% · L20 70.0% at this line
Game script fits · OT chance 6% (Unders hate OT)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
Projection = 70% model (15.02) + 30% last-5 average
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 16.3 headshots vs line 16.5 (4/10 over). KPR 0.60, HS 62%. Next: vs INOX Division, LAN/Online unknown.
Strongest: L10 average 16.3 against a 16.5 line
Biggest risk: High 2-0 sweep chance (72%) — fewer total rounds
- High 2-0 sweep chance (72%) — fewer total rounds
- 30% of recent maps were blowouts (13-5 or worse)
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
MIXED
The call
PASS
Value
NO VALUE
- • Model 15.91 vs line 16.5 → -0.59 (-3.6%)
- • Form L5 60% · L10 60% under this line
- • Slight lean (40–45% / 65–70%) → no adjustment
- • Expected 40.5 rounds · 2-0 72% · OT 5.6%
Performance (last 40 maps)
Kills/Map
12.88
HS/Map
8
K/D
0.96
KPR
0.6
ADR
66.1
KAST
73.7%
HS%
62.1%
Multi-kill
11.3%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Mirage)7.2 · KPR 0.604 · 19.7r
Map 2 (Dust2)7.8 · KPR 0.617 · 20.8r
Required KPR to clear0.656
Base kills (Maps 1-2)24.73
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.-2.23%
Final projected kills24.18
× realistic HS% (62.1%)15.91
INOX Division gives up (57 series)-1.7% vs norm
Likely HS totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Under 16.5. Model: 54.7% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps31.6%
~13 HS · 34r77.9%
Normal50.1%
~17 HS · 43r49.5%
Close maps12.7%
~17 HS · 43r48%
Overtime5.6%
~19 HS · 49r30%
Match context
Oct 24, 02:00 PMOnline
Win chance source: Polymarket 41.0%
Slight lean (40–45% / 65–70%) → no adjustment
Game scriptNeutral for Under — team 41% to win (ideal is 40% or lower).
M1 Mirage
19.7r
M2 Dust2
20.8r
+2% KPR here
Total
40.5r
2-0 sweep72%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)18.3%
Overtime5.6%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)31.6%
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Mirage / Dust2
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 16.5 (Under) · avg 16.3 · hit 6/10 · tap a bar
16.5
Nearby lines
| 14.5 Under | 36.6% | below BE |
| 15.5 Under | 41.3% | below BE |
| 16.5 Under | 48.1% | OFFERED |
| 17.5 Under | 52.8% | below BE |
| 18.5 Under | 58.5% |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 16.5
Line movement
first 16.5→16.5no change
- Back on board16.5 → 16.5Oct 24, 12:53 PM
- Pulled16.5Oct 24, 12:53 PM
- First seen16.5Oct 24, 12:52 PM
Map stats
Mirage
9 maps
Kills
11.6
KPR
0.6
HS%
57.7%
K/D
0.9
Dust2
9 maps
Kills
12.8
KPR
0.62
HS%
62.6%
K/D
0.97
Anubis
8 maps
Kills
15.2
KPR
0.69
HS%
66.4%
K/D
1.1
Cache
5 maps
Kills
13.8
KPR
0.62
HS%
59.4%
K/D
1.03
Nuke
5 maps
Kills
11.6
KPR
0.58
HS%
65.5%
K/D
0.81
Ancient
3 maps
Kills
11
KPR
0.55
HS%
60.6%
K/D
0.87
Inferno
1 maps
Kills
14
KPR
0.61
HS%
57.1%
K/D
1
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-24 | STATE | 7 Anubis 3-13 | 5 Nuke 1-13 | 12 | L | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-20 | los kogutos | 14 Anubis 13-10 | 14 Nuke 13-11 | 28 | W | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-10-17 | los kogutos | 10 Ancient 13-6 | 10 Cache 13-4 | 20 | W | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-26 | BRUTE | 8 Anubis 10-13 | 8 Mirage 10-13 | 16 | L | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-09-26 | BRUTE | 6 Mirage 13-1 | 8 Dust2 13-5 | 14 | W | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-25 | aimclub | 4 Mirage 6-13 | 10 Dust2 13-9 | 14 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-09-25 | BRUTE | 8 Inferno 10-13 | 10 Cache 16-12 | 18 | Split | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-09-21 | BRUTE | 4 Dust2 13-10 | 6 Mirage 13-7 | 10 | W | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-09-20 | BRUTE | 5 Mirage 11-13 | 7 Ancient 9-13 | 12 | L | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-09-17 | BRUTE | 12 Anubis 16-14 | 7 Mirage 13-8 | 19 | W | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-09-15 | BRUTE | 3 Ancient 6-13 | 9 Cache 13-11 | 12 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-09-01 | PCIFIC | 7 Dust2 11-13 | 9 Anubis 13-8 | 16 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-08-08 | Nexus | 7 Cache 7-13 | 13 Anubis 9-13 | 20 | L | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-08-08 | eSuba | 9 Anubis 13-8 | 12 Dust2 13-4 | 21 | W | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-08-07 | BRUTE | 8 Mirage 13-4 | 7 Dust2 5-13 | 15 | Split | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-08-02 | 9INE | 6 Mirage 3-13 | 6 Nuke 3-13 | 12 | L | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-08-02 | Acend | 6 Dust2 5-13 | 10 Mirage 13-5 | 16 | Split | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-08-02 | 9INE | 8 Dust2 13-10 | 5 Cache 13-9 | 13 | W | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-07-28 | ASTRAL | 9 Anubis 13-7 | 7 Nuke 10-13 | 16 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-07-28 | BRUTE | 6 Nuke 13-10 | 10 Dust2 13-9 | 16 | W | Under ✓ |








































































































































































