KillsRisk
Line
33
Pick
OVER
Projection
32.39
Hit
46%
EV+
-20.4%
Edge
-0.6
L10
40%
HeadshotsBetter playRisk
Line
20.5
Pick
OVER
Projection
21.54
Hit
57.7%
EV+
-0.1%
Edge
+1.0
L10
60%

Rifler
Mail09
Metizport vs BAKS
RISK · OVER 20.5
PP20.5
≈ L5 21.6 · L20 21.6Risk · Edge +1.0 far below ±2.0
Hit rates at 20.5 (Over)
L5
40%
2/5
L10
60%
6/10
L20
61%
11/18
H2H
N/A
Volatility
Medium
±5.08
Previous meeting · vs BAKS
No meeting with BAKS in his last 18 series.
LAN vs online form
LAN
21.8
2/4 hit at 20.5
Online · this match
21.5
9/14 hit at 20.5
Avg headshots on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm MaiL09 is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 20.5
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 67.0%
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
prizepicks · Headshots · Maps 1-2Risk
What to watch · Needs 21+ HS (~32 kills at 66.6% HS): 0.678 KPR over ~45 rounds. Main danger: a fast 2-0 (73.5%) or blowout (14.9%) cuts rounds.
Side
Over
Projection
21.54
Raw edge
+1.0
Cons. hit
57.7%
EV+
-0.1%
Rating
5.5/10
Exp. rounds
45.4
Line
20.5
Verdict
Risk
Plain model
57.7%
+8.2 →
Learned
65.9%
what past results change
learning 1x
learning 1x
Same-line track record · Over 18.5-22.5
All players · Headshots
55%60 picks
This player
50%2 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 58.1% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±2 (pref ±2.5)
- Edge +1.0 below ±2.0 minimum
- EV+ not positive at current payout
- Game script fits: 2-0 sweep 74% (Overs need rounds)
Sharp checks · 5/6
Big enough sample · 18 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60% · L10 60.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55% · L20 61.1% at this line
Game script fits · 2-0 sweep 74% (Overs need rounds)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
Projection = 70% model (21.51) + 30% last-5 average
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 22.0 headshots vs line 20.5 (6/10 over). KPR 0.73, HS 67%. Next: vs BAKS, Online.
Strongest: L10 average 22.0 against a 20.5 line
Biggest risk: High 2-0 sweep chance (74%) — fewer total rounds
- High 2-0 sweep chance (74%) — fewer total rounds
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
PARTIAL
The call
PASS
Value
NO VALUE
- • Model 21.54 vs line 20.5 → +1.04 (5.1%)
- • Form L5 40% · L10 60% over this line
- • Slight lean (40–45% / 65–70%) → no adjustment
- • Expected 45.4 rounds · 2-0 73.5% · OT 20.7%
Performance (last 36 maps)
Kills/Map
16.19
HS/Map
10.78
K/D
1.12
KPR
0.73
ADR
76.5
KAST
74.7%
HS%
66.6%
Multi-kill
16.9%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Nuke)10.7 · KPR 0.674 · 23.8r
Map 2 (Inferno)10.8 · KPR 0.744 · 21.6r
Required KPR to clear0.678
Base kills (Maps 1-2)32.11
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.+0.57%
Final projected kills32.3
× realistic HS% (66.6%)21.54
BAKS gives up (31 series)-0.1% vs norm
Likely HS totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Over 20.5. Model: 58.1% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps14.9%
~18 HS · 38r28%
Normal56%
~21 HS · 44r49.4%
Close maps8.4%
~23 HS · 49r68.8%
Overtime20.7%
~26 HS · 55r85%
Match context
Oct 25, 12:00 PMOnlineNODWIN Clutch Series 13
Win chance source: Polymarket 67.0%
Slight lean (40–45% / 65–70%) → no adjustment
Game scriptIdeal Over range — team 67% to win (40-70%), competitive maps expected.
M1 Nuke
23.8r
-8% KPR here
M2 Inferno
21.6r
+2% KPR here
Total
45.4r
2-0 sweep73.5%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)29.1%
Overtime20.7%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)14.9%
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Nuke / Inferno
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 20.5 (Over) · avg 22.0 · hit 6/10 · tap a bar
20.5
Nearby lines
| 18.5 Over | 64% | |
| 19.5 Over | 62.1% | |
| 20.5 Over | 57.7% | OFFERED |
| 21.5 Over | 51.6% | below BE |
| 22.5 Over | 47% | below BE |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 20.5
Line movement
first 20.5→20.5no change
- First seen20.5Oct 24, 08:30 PM
Map stats
Nuke
14 maps
Kills
16.1
KPR
0.66
HS%
66.7%
K/D
1.01
Inferno
7 maps
Kills
16.3
KPR
0.75
HS%
64%
K/D
1.28
Cache
5 maps
Kills
12.6
KPR
0.54
HS%
54%
K/D
0.89
Mirage
5 maps
Kills
17.8
KPR
0.73
HS%
68.5%
K/D
1.2
Anubis
3 maps
Kills
19
KPR
0.89
HS%
71.9%
K/D
1.78
Ancient
2 maps
Kills
17.5
KPR
0.76
HS%
82.9%
K/D
1.06
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-22 | Sangal | 8 Cache 16-14 | 20 Nuke 17-19 | 28 | Split | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-10-21 | GenOne | 8 Cache 13-3 | 8 Nuke 13-2 | 16 | W | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-20 | ex-RUSTEC | 12 Anubis 13-7 | 16 Nuke 13-9 | 28 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-10-07 | K27 | 11 Nuke 13-11 | 5 Mirage 8-13 | 16 | Split | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-09-27 | Inner Circle Academy | 12 Anubis 13-9 | 8 Nuke 13-9 | 20 | W | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-09-26 | aimclub | 16 Mirage 13-6 | 10 Inferno 7-13 | 26 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-09-25 | HAVU | 4 Nuke 8-13 | 10 Inferno 13-6 | 14 | Split | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-09-25 | Optibet | 17 Ancient 9-13 | 10 Nuke 13-8 | 27 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-09-14 | Nemiga | 14 Mirage 14-16 | 10 Nuke 8-13 | 24 | L | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-09-13 | ex-Zero Tenacity | 6 Cache 13-6 | 15 Nuke 14-16 | 21 | Split | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-09-11 | Lavked | 7 Inferno 13-11 | 15 Mirage 16-14 | 22 | W | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-09-05 | 9INE | 23 Nuke 25-23 | 12 Ancient 13-11 | 35 | W | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-09-04 | Sashi | 13 Inferno 16-13 | 9 Cache 16-13 | 22 | W | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-09-02 | Walczaki | 13 Inferno 13-6 | 17 Anubis 13-9 | 30 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-09-01 | PCIFIC | 7 Inferno 8-13 | 6 Nuke 13-9 | 13 | Split | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-08-31 | ASTRAL | 3 Cache 9-13 | 6 Nuke 13-8 | 9 | Split | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-08-31 | PCIFIC | 11 Nuke 13-7 | 13 Inferno 13-7 | 24 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-08-28 | Bushido Wildcats | 11 Mirage 9-13 | 2 Nuke 4-13 | 13 | L | Under ✗ | BO |








































































































































































