KillsRisk
Line
28.5
Pick
UNDER
Projection
25.68
Hit
54.7%
EV+
-5.3%
Edge
-2.8
L10
40%
HeadshotsBetter playRisk
Line
10.5
Pick
UNDER
Projection
9.15
Hit
55.6%
EV+
-3.7%
Edge
-1.4
L10
60%

AWPer
brutmonster
ex-Zero Tenacity vs Nuclear TigeRES
RISK · UNDER 28.5
≈ L5 28.0 · L20 28.9Risk · Recent form (L5/L10) leans the other way
Hit rates at 28.5 (Under)
L5
40%
2/5
L10
40%
4/10
L20
40%
8/20
H2H
0%
0/1
Volatility
Low
±5.08
Previous meeting · vs Nuclear TigeRES
0/1 hit · avg 40 kills on Maps 1-2
2026-09-25 · Stake Ranked Episode 5: Closed Qualifier
Inferno 13-7 · Dust2 14-16 · Split
40
Over 28.5 ✗
LAN vs online form
LAN
—
no series
Online · this match
28.9
8/20 hit at 28.5
Avg kills on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm brutmonster is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 28.5
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 38.5%
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
underdog · Kills · Maps 1-2Risk
What to watch · Stays under with 28 kills or fewer: below 0.723 KPR over ~39 rounds. Main danger: overtime (5.6%) or long close maps add rounds.
Side
Under
Projection
25.68
Raw edge
-2.8
Cons. hit
54.7%
EV+
-5.3%
Rating
3.8/10
Exp. rounds
39.4
Line
28.5
Verdict
Risk
Plain model
54.7%
+3.5 →
Learned
58.2%
what past results change
learning 1x
learning 1x
Same-line track record · Under 26.5-30.5
All players · Kills
46.4%334 picks
This player
—0 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 71.1% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±3 (pref ±4)
- Edge -2.8 below ±3.0 minimum
- Recent form (L5/L10) does not lean the same way
- EV+ not positive at current payout
- L10 hit rate ≥ 60%: L10 40.0% at this line
- L20 hit rate ≥ 55%: L20 40.0% at this line
Sharp checks · 4/6
Big enough sample · 20 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60% · L10 40.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55% · L20 40.0% at this line
Game script fits · OT chance 6% (Unders hate OT)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
Projection = 70% model (24.68) + 30% last-5 average
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 29.2 kills vs line 28.5 (6/10 over). KPR 0.70, HS 35%. Next: vs Nuclear TigeRES, Online.
Strongest: L10 average 29.2 against a 28.5 line
Biggest risk: Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
MIXED
The call
PASS
Value
NO VALUE
- • Model 25.68 vs line 28.5 → -2.82 (-9.9%)
- • Form L5 40% · L10 40% under this line
- • Underdog (≤40%) → fewer rounds (−1/map) and fewer kills (−6% KPR)
- • Expected 39.4 rounds · 2-0 54% · OT 5.6%
Performance (last 40 maps)
Kills/Map
14.45
HS/Map
5.05
K/D
1.14
KPR
0.69
ADR
71.3
KAST
74.1%
HS%
34.9%
Multi-kill
17.9%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Cache)12.7 · KPR 0.623 · 20.6r
Map 2 (Mirage)12 · KPR 0.644 · 18.8r
Required KPR to clear0.723
Base kills (Maps 1-2)24.94
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.-1.04%
Final projected kills24.68
Nuclear TigeRES gives up (38 series)+0.2% vs norm
Likely kills totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Under 28.5. Model: 71.1% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps23.5%
~22 kills · 33r92.2%
Normal41.5%
~26 kills · 40r69.6%
Close maps29.4%
~28 kills · 42r58.8%
Overtime5.6%
~31 kills · 48r31.6%
Match context
Oct 24, 05:00 PMOnlineCCT Europe 2026 Series 11
Win chance source: Polymarket 38.5%
Underdog (≤40%) → fewer rounds (−1/map) and fewer kills (−6% KPR)
Game scriptIdeal Under range — team 38% to win; the lower the %, the fewer rounds he wins and kills he gets.
M1 Cache
20.6r
-5% KPR here
M2 Mirage
18.8r
-1% KPR here
Total
39.4r
2-0 sweep54%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)35%
Overtime5.6%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)23.5%
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Cache / Mirage
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 28.5 (Under) · avg 29.2 · hit 4/10 · tap a bar
28.5
Nearby lines
| 26.5 Under | 44% | below BE |
| 27.5 Under | 48.5% | below BE |
| 28.5 Under | 54.7% | OFFERED |
| 29.5 Under | 59.5% | |
| 30.5 Under | 62.7% |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 28.5
Line movement
first 28.5→offno change
- Pulled28.5Oct 24, 05:06 PM
- Back on board28.5 → 28.5Oct 24, 12:53 PM
- Pulled28.5Oct 24, 12:53 PM
- First seen28.5Oct 24, 12:52 PM
Map stats
Cache
10 maps
Kills
14.1
KPR
0.65
HS%
42.6%
K/D
1.06
Mirage
9 maps
Kills
13.1
KPR
0.68
HS%
29.7%
K/D
1.09
Dust2
8 maps
Kills
18.4
KPR
0.81
HS%
29.9%
K/D
1.32
Inferno
7 maps
Kills
12.4
KPR
0.7
HS%
37.9%
K/D
1.24
Nuke
5 maps
Kills
14.6
KPR
0.65
HS%
34.2%
K/D
1
Anubis
1 maps
Kills
12
KPR
0.57
HS%
41.7%
K/D
1
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-20 | FOKUS | 11 Cache 13-16 | 12 Nuke 7-13 | 23 | L | Under ✓ | OT |
| 2026-10-20 | FORZE Reload | 14 Dust2 13-10 | 18 Cache 11-13 | 32 | Split | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-10-19 | Bushido Wildcats | 17 Mirage 13-7 | 13 Inferno 13-1 | 30 | W | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-16 | UNiTY | 10 Mirage 6-13 | 10 Cache 11-13 | 20 | L | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-10-15 | Just Players | 19 Mirage 13-7 | 16 Cache 13-4 | 35 | W | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-08 | Acend | 18 Cache 13-10 | 13 Inferno 11-13 | 31 | Split | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-10-06 | MASONIC | 17 Nuke 9-13 | 11 Dust2 13-2 | 28 | Split | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-05 | Leo | 11 Nuke 10-13 | 27 Dust2 13-11 | 38 | Split | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-10-02 | Butterfly | 15 Inferno 13-11 | 11 Mirage 13-2 | 26 | W | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-01 | EAC | 13 Inferno 13-7 | 16 Mirage 7-13 | 29 | Split | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-09-28 | Black Phoenix | 14 Dust2 13-11 | 17 Cache 13-11 | 31 | W | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-09-27 | Saint Sinners | 0 Inferno 0-1 | 15 Mirage 13-9 | 15 | Split | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-25 | Illyrians | 9 Mirage 7-13 | 11 Cache 13-2 | 20 | Split | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-25 | Nuclear TigeRES | 18 Inferno 13-7 | 22 Dust2 14-16 | 40 | Split | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-09-24 | BIG Academy | 17 Cache 13-5 | 19 Dust2 13-6 | 36 | W | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-23 | STATE | 15 Inferno 13-9 | 9 Nuke 10-13 | 24 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-09-22 | Black Phoenix | 12 Anubis 13-8 | 20 Dust2 13-10 | 32 | W | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-09-21 | INOX Division | 14 Cache 13-8 | 24 Nuke 13-11 | 38 | W | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-09-16 | Teletubisie | 20 Dust2 10-13 | 10 Mirage 5-13 | 30 | L | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-13 | UNiTY | 9 Cache 8-13 | 11 Mirage 13-6 | 20 | Split | Under ✓ |









































































































































































