KillsRisk
Line
28.5
Pick
UNDER
Projection
28.48
Hit
40.3%
EV+
-30.2%
Edge
-0.0
L10
20%
HeadshotsBetter playRisk
Line
15.5
Pick
UNDER
Projection
15.06
Hit
46.5%
EV+
-19.5%
Edge
-0.4
L10
30%

Rifler
Magnojez
BetBoom vs Team Spirit
RISK · UNDER 15.5
BEST UNDER · UD 15.5PP14.5UD15.5
▲ L5 17.0 · L20 16.1Risk · Recent form (L5/L10) leans the other way +1LAN UNDER · 35% hit
Hit rates at 15.5 (Under)
L5
20%
1/5
L10
30%
3/10
L20
45%
9/20
H2H
N/A
Volatility
Low
±3.06
Previous meeting · vs Team Spirit
No meeting with Team Spirit in his last 20 series.
LAN vs online form
LAN · this match
16.1
9/20 hit at 15.5
Online
—
no series
Avg headshots on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm Magnojez is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 15.5
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 20.5%
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
underdog · Headshots · Maps 1-2Risk
What to watch · Stays under with 15 HS or fewer (under ~30 kills at 52.6% HS): below 0.717 KPR over ~41 rounds. Main danger: overtime (18.9%) or long close maps add rounds.
Side
Under
Projection
15.06
Raw edge
-0.4
Cons. hit
46.5%
EV+
-19.5%
Rating
1/10
Exp. rounds
41.1
Line
15.5
Verdict
Risk
Plain model
46.5%
-8.2 →
Learned
38.3%
what past results change
learning 1x
learning 1x
Same-line track record · Under 13.5-17.5
All players · Headshots
40.7%263 picks
This player
100%1 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 55.7% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±2 (pref ±2.5)
- Edge -0.4 below ±2.0 minimum
- Recent form (L5/L10) does not lean the same way
- EV+ not positive at current payout
- L10 hit rate ≥ 60%: L10 30.0% at this line
- L20 hit rate ≥ 55%: L20 45.0% at this line
Sharp checks · 4/6
Big enough sample · 20 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60% · L10 30.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55% · L20 45.0% at this line
Game script fits · OT chance 19% (Unders hate OT)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
Projection = 70% model (14.23) + 30% last-5 average
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 16.2 headshots vs line 15.5 (7/10 over). KPR 0.67, HS 53%. Next: vs Spirit, LAN.
Strongest: L10 average 16.2 against a 15.5 line
Biggest risk: High 2-0 sweep chance (62%) — fewer total rounds
- High 2-0 sweep chance (62%) — fewer total rounds
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
MIXED
The call
PASS
Value
NO VALUE
- • Model 15.06 vs line 15.5 → -0.44 (-2.8%)
- • Form L5 20% · L10 30% under this line
- • Underdog (≤40%) → fewer rounds (−1/map) and fewer kills (−6% KPR)
- • Expected 41.1 rounds · 2-0 61.5% · OT 18.9%
Performance (last 40 maps)
Kills/Map
15.25
HS/Map
8.03
K/D
0.94
KPR
0.67
ADR
77.6
KAST
69.9%
HS%
52.6%
Multi-kill
15.1%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Anubis)7.1 · KPR 0.619 · 21.7r
Map 2 (Mirage)7.2 · KPR 0.702 · 19.4r
Required KPR to clear0.717
Base kills (Maps 1-2)27.06
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.-0.01%
Final projected kills27.06
× realistic HS% (52.6%)15.06
Team Spirit gives up (133 series)-1.8% vs norm
Likely HS totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Under 15.5. Model: 55.7% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps24.4%
~13 HS · 35r78.9%
Normal32.3%
~14 HS · 39r64.9%
Close maps24.4%
~16 HS · 44r45.8%
Overtime18.9%
~18 HS · 50r26.8%
Match context
Oct 24, 10:00 AMLANPGL Masters Bucharest 2026
Win chance source: Polymarket 20.5%
Underdog (≤40%) → fewer rounds (−1/map) and fewer kills (−6% KPR)
Game scriptIdeal Under range — team 20% to win; the lower the %, the fewer rounds he wins and kills he gets.
M1 Anubis
21.7r
-2% KPR here
M2 Mirage
19.4r
+11% KPR here
Total
41.1r
2-0 sweep61.5%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)43.3%
Overtime18.9%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)24.4%
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Anubis / Mirage
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 15.5 (Under) · avg 16.2 · hit 3/10 · tap a bar
15.5
Nearby lines
| 13.5 Under | 31.4% | below BE |
| 14.5 Under | 38.7% | below BE |
| 15.5 Under | 46.5% | OFFERED |
| 16.5 Under | 55.7% | below BE |
| 17.5 Under | 63% |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 15.5
Line movement
first 15.5→15.5no change
- First seen15.5Oct 23, 12:41 PM
Map stats
Mirage
8 maps
Kills
15.5
KPR
0.78
HS%
51.6%
K/D
1.05
Anubis
8 maps
Kills
15.1
KPR
0.65
HS%
45.5%
K/D
0.93
Dust2
7 maps
Kills
12.6
KPR
0.56
HS%
52.3%
K/D
0.8
Nuke
6 maps
Kills
15.5
KPR
0.72
HS%
54.8%
K/D
1
Ancient
5 maps
Kills
19
KPR
0.73
HS%
63.2%
K/D
1.01
Cache
4 maps
Kills
16.2
KPR
0.68
HS%
52.3%
K/D
0.92
Overpass
2 maps
Kills
12
KPR
0.6
HS%
45.8%
K/D
0.73
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-18 | FURIA | 3 Dust2 6-13 | 16 Ancient 19-16 | 19 | Split | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-10-17 | Falcons | 3 Anubis 5-13 | 14 Dust2 16-14 | 17 | Split | Over ✗ | OTBO |
| 2026-10-16 | Legacy | 8 Nuke 16-13 | 9 Dust2 11-13 | 17 | Split | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-10-15 | PARIVISION | 10 Ancient 10-13 | 3 Anubis 13-4 | 13 | Split | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-14 | FURIA | 7 Ancient 10-13 | 12 Mirage 9-13 | 19 | L | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-10-06 | 9z | 3 Dust2 8-13 | 7 Mirage 9-13 | 10 | L | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-10-05 | Aurora | 5 Mirage 4-13 | 11 Nuke 13-7 | 16 | Split | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-04 | M80 | 9 Cache 16-14 | 4 Anubis 13-11 | 13 | W | Under ✓ | OT |
| 2026-10-03 | FURIA | 6 Mirage 5-13 | 14 Cache 14-16 | 20 | L | Over ✗ | OTBO |
| 2026-09-12 | G2 | 10 Mirage 13-7 | 8 Anubis 13-16 | 18 | Split | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-09-10 | MIBR | 11 Mirage 13-9 | 13 Anubis 16-14 | 24 | W | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-09-09 | Astralis | 15 Ancient 16-14 | 6 Anubis 13-8 | 21 | W | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-09-08 | BIG | 6 Cache 13-8 | 8 Nuke 13-9 | 14 | W | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-08-14 | Ninjas in Pyjamas | 8 Nuke 3-13 | 7 Anubis 11-13 | 15 | L | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-07-10 | FaZe | 5 Cache 2-13 | 12 Ancient 6-13 | 17 | L | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-06-18 | Aurora | 6 Nuke 6-13 | 11 Anubis 9-13 | 17 | L | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-06-15 | FUT | 6 Mirage 13-7 | 7 Dust2 13-7 | 13 | W | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-06-14 | Vitality | 5 Overpass 8-13 | 10 Nuke 11-13 | 15 | L | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-06-13 | FURIA | 6 Overpass 6-13 | 5 Dust2 6-13 | 11 | L | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-06-11 | The MongolZ | 5 Dust2 11-13 | 7 Mirage 13-6 | 12 | Split | Under ✓ |








































































































































































