KillsBetter playPlayable
Line
27
Pick
OVER
Projection
30.21
Hit
61.2%
EV+
+6.0%
Edge
+3.2
L10
80%
HeadshotsRisk
Line
15.5
Pick
OVER
Projection
16.45
Hit
54.5%
EV+
-5.7%
Edge
+0.9
L10
70%

Rifler
syph0
Nemiga vs Legacy
RISK · OVER 15.5
BEST OVER · PP 15.5PP15.5UD16.5
▲ L5 19.0 · L20 16.4Risk · Edge +0.9 far below ±2.0 +1
Hit rates at 15.5 (Over)
L5
80%
4/5
L10
70%
7/10
L20
60%
12/20
H2H
N/A
Volatility
Medium
±4.36
Previous meeting · vs Legacy
No meeting with Legacy in his last 20 series.
LAN vs online form
LAN · this match
17.5
3/4 hit at 15.5
Online
16.1
9/16 hit at 15.5
Avg headshots on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm SYPH0 is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 15.5
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 34.5%
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
prizepicks · Headshots · Maps 1-2Risk
What to watch · Needs 16+ HS (~30 kills at 53.4% HS): 0.68 KPR over ~43 rounds. His Kills line is 27.5: backing Kills Over needs ~2 fewer kills, usually the easier play. Main danger: a fast 2-0 (54.5%) or blowout (26.9%) cuts rounds.
Side
Over
Projection
16.45
Raw edge
+0.9
Cons. hit
54.5%
EV+
-5.7%
Rating
3.6/10
Exp. rounds
42.7
Line
15.5
Verdict
Risk
Plain model
54.5%
+8.5 →
Learned
63%
what past results change
learning 1x
learning 1x
Same-line track record · Over 13.5-17.5
All players · Headshots
59.3%263 picks
This player
100%1 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 58.6% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±2 (pref ±2.5)
- Edge +0.9 below ±2.0 minimum
- EV+ not positive at current payout
- Blowout loss risk — team only 34% to win. Big underdogs often lose maps 13-3 and the Over dies (e.g. Temny Prince: 9 kills in a 3-13 map 1). Over is penalised and can't be a Take.
Sharp checks · 6/6
Big enough sample · 20 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60% · L10 70.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55% · L20 60.0% at this line
Game script fits · 2-0 sweep 55% (Overs need rounds)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
Projection = 70% model (15.35) + 30% last-5 average
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 17.6 headshots vs line 15.0 (7/10 over). KPR 0.70, HS 53%. Next: vs Legacy, LAN.
Strongest: L10 average 17.6 against a 15.0 line
Biggest risk: Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
ALIGNED
The call
PASS
Value
NO VALUE
- • Model 16.45 vs line 15.5 → +0.95 (6.1%)
- • Form L5 80% · L10 70% over this line
- • Underdog (≤40%) → fewer rounds (−1/map) and fewer kills (−6% KPR)
- • Expected 42.7 rounds · 2-0 54.5% · OT 16.7%
Performance (last 40 maps)
Kills/Map
15.35
HS/Map
8.2
K/D
1.12
KPR
0.7
ADR
78.9
KAST
75.9%
HS%
53.4%
Multi-kill
17%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Cache)7.2 · KPR 0.707 · 19.2r
Map 2 (Mirage)8.1 · KPR 0.649 · 23.5r
Required KPR to clear0.68
Base kills (Maps 1-2)28.81
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.-0.22%
Final projected kills28.75
× realistic HS% (53.4%)16.45
Legacy gives up (79 series)-1.2% vs norm
Likely HS totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Over 15.5. Model: 58.6% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps26.9%
~14 HS · 36r31.5%
Normal50.6%
~17 HS · 43r58.5%
Close maps5.8%
~18 HS · 46r67.5%
Overtime16.7%
~20 HS · 52r83.2%
Match context
Oct 24, 12:55 PMLANPGL Masters Bucharest 2026
Win chance source: Polymarket 34.5%
Underdog (≤40%) → fewer rounds (−1/map) and fewer kills (−6% KPR)
⚠ Blowout riskBlowout loss risk — team only 34% to win. Big underdogs often lose maps 13-3 and the Over dies (e.g. Temny Prince: 9 kills in a 3-13 map 1). Over is penalised and can't be a Take.
M1 Cache
19.2r
+8% KPR here
M2 Mirage
23.5r
-1% KPR here
Total
42.7r
2-0 sweep54.5%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)22.5%
Overtime16.7%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)26.9%
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Cache / Mirage
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 15.5 (Over) · avg 17.6 · hit 7/10 · tap a bar
15.5
Nearby lines
| 13.5 Over | 62% | |
| 14.5 Over | 58.9% | |
| 15.5 Over | 54.5% | OFFERED |
| 16.5 Over | 47.1% | below BE |
| 17.5 Over | 41.7% | below BE |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 15.5
Line movement
first 15→15.5+0.5
- Back on board14.5 → 15.5Oct 24, 09:43 PM
- Pulled14.5Oct 24, 09:40 PM
- Back on board15.5 → 14.5Oct 24, 09:08 PM
- Pulled15.5Oct 24, 12:46 PM
- Back on board15.5 → 15.5Oct 24, 12:45 PM
- Pulled15.5Oct 24, 12:45 PM
- Moved up15 → 15.5Oct 24, 12:57 AM
- First seen15Oct 24, 12:00 AM
Map stats
Cache
9 maps
Kills
15.2
KPR
0.77
HS%
46.7%
K/D
1.3
Mirage
9 maps
Kills
17.6
KPR
0.69
HS%
45.6%
K/D
1.11
Ancient
8 maps
Kills
12.4
KPR
0.61
HS%
54.5%
K/D
0.94
Dust2
6 maps
Kills
14.8
KPR
0.64
HS%
62.9%
K/D
0.95
Anubis
4 maps
Kills
11.5
KPR
0.55
HS%
58.7%
K/D
0.87
Nuke
4 maps
Kills
21.2
KPR
1.01
HS%
64.7%
K/D
1.81
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-10 | Iberian Soul | 2 Cache 7-13 | 20 Nuke 16-13 | 22 | Split | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-10-08 | Lavked | 9 Anubis 13-5 | 12 Dust2 13-4 | 21 | W | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-04 | Astralis | 7 Mirage 6-13 | 9 Ancient 13-10 | 16 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-10-03 | Luminosity | 8 Cache 13-11 | 17 Dust2 16-13 | 25 | W | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-10-02 | Alliance | 8 Cache 13-6 | 3 Ancient 13-8 | 11 | W | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-10-01 | FaZe | 7 Mirage 16-12 | 11 Ancient 13-11 | 18 | W | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-09-28 | BET-M | 8 Anubis 13-10 | 10 Nuke 13-6 | 18 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-09-28 | FOKUS | 6 Dust2 13-6 | 14 Mirage 22-20 | 20 | W | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-09-27 | Color | 9 Cache 13-5 | 4 Dust2 9-13 | 13 | Split | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-26 | Black Phoenix | 7 Cache 13-9 | 5 Dust2 9-13 | 12 | Split | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-09-25 | INOX Division | 10 Nuke 13-2 | 7 Ancient 13-10 | 17 | W | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-24 | Just Players | 6 Mirage 13-9 | 7 Cache 13-6 | 13 | W | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-09-14 | Metizport | 8 Mirage 16-14 | 15 Nuke 13-8 | 23 | W | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-09-13 | SINNERS | 11 Cache 13-10 | 7 Mirage 13-10 | 18 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-09-12 | Just Players | 4 Ancient 13-6 | 3 Cache 13-3 | 7 | W | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-10 | K27 | 3 Anubis 10-13 | 7 Mirage 13-9 | 10 | Split | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-09-09 | HOTU | 4 Ancient 3-13 | 9 Cache 13-4 | 13 | Split | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-08 | Color | 12 Dust2 16-13 | 7 Anubis 13-6 | 19 | W | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-09-06 | FOKUS | 8 Mirage 16-14 | 5 Ancient 13-3 | 13 | W | Under ✗ | OTBO |
| 2026-09-05 | Nemesis | 8 Mirage 13-1 | 11 Ancient 13-7 | 19 | W | Over ✓ | BO |







































































































































































