KillsRisk
Line
28.5
Pick
UNDER
Projection
28.47
Hit
42.3%
EV+
-26.8%
Edge
-0.0
L10
60%
HeadshotsRisk
Line
17.5
Pick
UNDER
Projection
17.19
Hit
42.1%
EV+
-27.1%
Edge
-0.3
L10
50%

Rifler
drop
BESTIA vs Galorys
RISK · UNDER 17.5
▲ L5 19.0 · L20 16.4Risk · Recent form (L5/L10) leans the other way +2LAN UNDER · 35% hit
Hit rates at 17.5 (Under)
L5
40%
2/5
L10
50%
5/10
L20
65%
13/20
H2H
100%
1/1
Volatility
High
±7.46
Previous meeting · vs Galorys
1/1 hit · avg 13 headshots on Maps 1-2
2026-09-17 · Circuit X Curitiba 3
Ancient 10-13 · Dust2 7-13 · L
13
Under 17.5 ✓
LAN vs online form
LAN · this match
16.8
11/18 hit at 17.5
Online
13
2/2 hit at 17.5
Avg headshots on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm drop is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 17.5
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 56.5%
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
underdog · Headshots · Maps 1-2Risk
What to watch · Stays under with 17 HS or fewer (under ~30 kills at 60.3% HS): below 0.666 KPR over ~44 rounds. Main danger: overtime (14.4%) or long close maps add rounds.
Side
Under
Projection
17.19
Raw edge
-0.3
Cons. hit
42.1%
EV+
-27.1%
Rating
1/10
Exp. rounds
43.6
Line
17.5
Verdict
Risk
Plain model
42.1%
-8.2 →
Learned
33.9%
what past results change
learning 1x
learning 1x
Same-line track record · Under 15.5-19.5
All players · Headshots
40.7%204 picks
This player
66.7%3 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 51.7% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±2 (pref ±2.5)
- Edge -0.3 below ±2.0 minimum
- Recent form (L5/L10) does not lean the same way
- EV+ not positive at current payout
- High form volatility
- L10 hit rate ≥ 60%: L10 50.0% at this line
- Under risk — team 56% to win; favourites win more rounds and their players usually get more kills.
Sharp checks · 5/6
Big enough sample · 20 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60% · L10 50.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55% · L20 65.0% at this line
Game script fits · OT chance 14% (Unders hate OT)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
Projection = 70% model (16.41) + 30% last-5 average
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 18.9 headshots vs line 17.5 (5/10 over). KPR 0.68, HS 60%. Next: vs Galorys, LAN.
Strongest: L10 average 18.9 against a 17.5 line
Biggest risk: 28% of recent maps were blowouts (13-5 or worse)
- 28% of recent maps were blowouts (13-5 or worse)
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
MIXED
The call
PASS
Value
NO VALUE
- • Model 17.19 vs line 17.5 → -0.31 (-1.8%)
- • Form L5 40% · L10 50% under this line
- • Close match (45–65%) → longer maps: +1 round per map
- • Expected 43.6 rounds · 2-0 53% · OT 14.4%
Performance (last 40 maps)
Kills/Map
13.65
HS/Map
8.22
K/D
0.95
KPR
0.68
ADR
78.7
KAST
73.4%
HS%
60.3%
Multi-kill
18.2%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Mirage)8.4 · KPR 0.626 · 22.4r
Map 2 (Nuke)8 · KPR 0.629 · 21.2r
Required KPR to clear0.666
Base kills (Maps 1-2)27.36
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.-0.54%
Final projected kills27.21
× realistic HS% (60.3%)17.19
Galorys gives up (77 series)-7.9% vs norm
Likely HS totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Under 17.5. Model: 51.7% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps28.6%
~14 HS · 37r71.4%
Normal48.9%
~18 HS · 45r54.4%
Close maps8.1%
~18 HS · 47r49.7%
Overtime14.4%
~21 HS · 53r37.3%
Match context
Oct 23, 06:00 PMLANCircuit X Curitiba 4
Win chance source: Polymarket 56.5%
Close match (45–65%) → longer maps: +1 round per map
Heads upUnder risk — team 56% to win; favourites win more rounds and their players usually get more kills.
M1 Mirage
22.4r
-7% KPR here
M2 Nuke
21.2r
-7% KPR here
Total
43.6r
2-0 sweep53%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)22.5%
Overtime14.4%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)28.6%
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Mirage / Nuke
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 17.5 (Under) · avg 18.9 · hit 5/10 · tap a bar
17.5
Nearby lines
| 15.5 Under | 33.7% | below BE |
| 16.5 Under | 38.9% | below BE |
| 17.5 Under | 42.1% | OFFERED |
| 18.5 Under | 45.3% | below BE |
| 19.5 Under | 50.4% | below BE |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 17.5
Line movement
first 17.5→offno change
- Pulled17.5Oct 23, 06:11 PM
- Back on board17.5 → 17.5Oct 23, 12:59 AM
- Pulled17.5Oct 23, 12:58 AM
- First seen17.5Oct 23, 12:58 AM
Map stats
Mirage
12 maps
Kills
13.1
KPR
0.61
HS%
68.8%
K/D
0.92
Nuke
7 maps
Kills
12
KPR
0.61
HS%
56%
K/D
0.92
Ancient
6 maps
Kills
14
KPR
0.69
HS%
54.8%
K/D
0.9
Inferno
4 maps
Kills
16.2
KPR
0.6
HS%
64.6%
K/D
0.87
Cache
4 maps
Kills
16.8
KPR
0.77
HS%
62.7%
K/D
1.18
Dust2
4 maps
Kills
13.2
KPR
0.66
HS%
49.1%
K/D
0.98
Overpass
2 maps
Kills
9
KPR
0.47
HS%
44.4%
K/D
0.64
Anubis
1 maps
Kills
18
KPR
0.9
HS%
55.6%
K/D
2
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-22 | Imperial | 10 Dust2 13-7 | 10 Mirage 13-7 | 20 | W | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-10-22 | ShindeN | 5 Dust2 7-13 | 11 Cache 13-5 | 16 | Split | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-26 | Voca | 5 Ancient 10-13 | 14 Mirage 10-13 | 19 | L | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-09-25 | M80 | 6 Mirage 6-13 | 7 Cache 6-13 | 13 | L | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-09-20 | Bounty Hunters | 15 Cache 16-14 | 12 Mirage 19-16 | 27 | W | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-09-19 | ShindeN | 16 Mirage 16-13 | 20 Inferno 22-19 | 36 | W | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-09-19 | Imperial | 10 Mirage 13-10 | 2 Nuke 2-13 | 12 | Split | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-18 | CLANSBR | 13 Ancient 13-7 | 9 Mirage 13-2 | 22 | W | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-17 | Galorys | 7 Ancient 10-13 | 6 Dust2 7-13 | 13 | L | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-09-17 | CLANSBR | 7 Inferno 13-3 | 4 Mirage 13-2 | 11 | W | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-10 | Virtus.pro | 5 Mirage 4-13 | 5 Dust2 7-13 | 10 | L | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-09 | HEROIC | 9 Cache 7-13 | 7 Ancient 4-13 | 16 | L | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-04-15 | Spirit | 10 Mirage 13-8 | 12 Ancient 8-13 | 22 | Split | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-04-14 | RED Canids | 7 Mirage 13-9 | 2 Ancient 4-13 | 9 | Split | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-04-13 | Vitality | 4 Nuke 4-13 | 5 Overpass 6-13 | 9 | L | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-04-02 | RED Canids | 14 Nuke 13-7 | 10 Anubis 13-7 | 24 | W | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-03-28 | DASH | 4 Nuke 13-4 | 11 Inferno 12-16 | 15 | Split | Under ✓ | OTBO |
| 2026-03-28 | RED Canids | 5 Mirage 13-4 | 2 Nuke 13-7 | 7 | W | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-03-27 | RED Canids | 4 Inferno 11-13 | 7 Nuke 6-13 | 11 | L | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-03-07 | 9z | 3 Overpass 13-6 | 14 Nuke 14-16 | 17 | Split | Under ✓ | OT |







































































































































































