KillsRisk
Line
30.5
Pick
OVER
Projection
30.27
Hit
47.8%
EV+
-17.2%
Edge
-0.2
L10
50%
HeadshotsBetter playRisk
Line
15.5
Pick
OVER
Projection
16.3
Hit
53.7%
EV+
-6.9%
Edge
+0.8
L10
50%

Rifler
Hitori
G2 Ares vs The Last Resort
RISK · OVER 15.5
▲ L5 18.0 · L20 16.3Risk · Edge +0.8 far below ±2.0
Hit rates at 15.5 (Over)
L5
60%
3/5
L10
50%
5/10
L20
47%
9/19
H2H
50%
1/2
Volatility
Medium
±4.37
Previous meeting · vs The Last Resort
1/2 hit · avg 16.5 headshots on Maps 1-2
2026-10-14 · CCT Europe 2026 Series 11
Ancient 10-13 · Inferno 13-8 · Split
18
Over 15.5 ✓
2026-09-25 · Hotspawn 10k Showdown: Closed Qualifier
Inferno 13-11 · Cache 13-8 · W
15
Under 15.5 ✗
LAN vs online form
LAN · this match
17
2/4 hit at 15.5
Online
16.1
7/15 hit at 15.5
Avg headshots on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Veto confirmed — re-check map order
- Confirm Hitori is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 15.5
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Bookmaker odds via bo3.gg
underdog · Headshots · Maps 1-2Risk
What to watch · Needs 16+ HS (~30 kills at 52.6% HS): 0.714 KPR over ~41 rounds. Main danger: a fast 2-0 (56.5%) or blowout (24%) cuts rounds.
Side
Over
Projection
16.3
Raw edge
+0.8
Cons. hit
53.7%
EV+
-6.9%
Rating
4.1/10
Exp. rounds
41.3
Line
15.5
Verdict
Risk
Plain model
53.7%
+8.5 →
Learned
62.2%
what past results change
learning 1x
learning 1x
Same-line track record · Over 13.5-17.5
All players · Headshots
59.3%263 picks
This player
100%1 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 57.3% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±2 (pref ±2.5)
- Edge +0.8 below ±2.0 minimum
- EV+ not positive at current payout
- L10 hit rate ≥ 60%: L10 50.0% at this line
- L20 hit rate ≥ 55%: L20 47.4% at this line
- Blowout win risk — team 76% to win. A 13-3 stomp means fewer rounds to farm kills; still playable.
Sharp checks · 4/6
Big enough sample · 19 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60% · L10 50.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55% · L20 47.4% at this line
Game script fits · 2-0 sweep 56% (Overs need rounds)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
Projection = 70% model (15.58) + 30% last-5 average
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 17.1 headshots vs line 15.5 (5/10 over). KPR 0.70, HS 53%. Next: vs The Last Resort, LAN.
Strongest: L10 average 17.1 against a 15.5 line
Biggest risk: Normal CS2 variance
The read
Signal
PARTIAL
The call
PASS
Value
NO VALUE
- • Model 16.3 vs line 15.5 → +0.8 (5.2%)
- • Form L5 60% · L10 50% over this line
- • Heavy favourite (≥70%) → shorter maps (−1.5/map) but easier kills (+8% KPR)
- • Expected 41.3 rounds · 2-0 56.5% · OT 19.8%
Performance (last 38 maps)
Kills/Map
15.5
HS/Map
8.16
K/D
1
KPR
0.7
ADR
80.9
KAST
75.4%
HS%
52.6%
Multi-kill
16.7%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Inferno)8.5 · KPR 0.782 · 20.7r
Map 2 (Anubis)7 · KPR 0.648 · 20.6r
Required KPR to clear0.714
Base kills (Maps 1-2)29.53
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.+0.27%
Final projected kills29.61
× realistic HS% (52.6%)16.3
The Last Resort gives up (40 series)+5.3% vs norm
Likely HS totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Over 15.5. Model: 57.3% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps24%
~14 HS · 35r30.4%
Normal39.5%
~16 HS · 40r49.6%
Close maps16.7%
~17 HS · 44r66.3%
Overtime19.8%
~20 HS · 50r82.7%
Match context
Oct 24, 12:00 PMLANHotspawn 10k Showdown
Win chance source: Bookmaker odds via bo3.gg
Heavy favourite (≥70%) → shorter maps (−1.5/map) but easier kills (+8% KPR)
Heads upBlowout win risk — team 76% to win. A 13-3 stomp means fewer rounds to farm kills; still playable.
M1 Inferno
20.7r
+4% KPR here
M2 Anubis
20.6r
-14% KPR here
Total
41.3r
2-0 sweep56.5%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)36.5%
Overtime19.8%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)24%
Veto confirmed (bo3.gg): Inferno / Anubis
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 15.5 (Over) · avg 17.1 · hit 5/10 · tap a bar
15.5
Nearby lines
| 13.5 Over | 63.6% | |
| 14.5 Over | 58.3% | |
| 15.5 Over | 53.7% | OFFERED |
| 16.5 Over | 46.4% | below BE |
| 17.5 Over | 41% | below BE |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 15.5
Line movement
first 15.5→offno change
- Pulled15.5Oct 24, 12:12 PM
- First seen15.5Oct 23, 11:11 PM
Map stats
Inferno
9 maps
Kills
16.4
KPR
0.73
HS%
54.1%
K/D
1.14
Ancient
9 maps
Kills
16.8
KPR
0.72
HS%
55%
K/D
1.01
Cache
8 maps
Kills
17.2
KPR
0.76
HS%
46.4%
K/D
1.16
Dust2
5 maps
Kills
13.6
KPR
0.67
HS%
51.5%
K/D
0.87
Mirage
4 maps
Kills
12.5
KPR
0.59
HS%
62%
K/D
0.83
Anubis
3 maps
Kills
11.3
KPR
0.5
HS%
50%
K/D
0.64
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-21 | Illyrians | 7 Ancient 13-7 | 6 Mirage 10-13 | 13 | Split | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-10-19 | mellren | 9 Mirage 13-10 | 13 Ancient 14-16 | 22 | Split | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-10-17 | ex-6666 | 8 Inferno 11-13 | 5 Dust2 2-13 | 13 | L | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-16 | BAKS | 9 Cache 3-13 | 15 Inferno 16-13 | 24 | Split | Over ✓ | OTBO |
| 2026-10-14 | The Last Resort | 8 Ancient 10-13 | 10 Inferno 13-8 | 18 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-10-09 | Sangal | 4 Anubis 13-16 | 10 Ancient 13-10 | 14 | Split | Under ✗ | OT |
| 2026-10-09 | NAVI Junior | 9 Anubis 11-13 | 7 Cache 13-5 | 16 | Split | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-08 | INFINITE | 10 Inferno 13-7 | 14 Ancient 16-14 | 24 | W | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-10-08 | RBLS | 4 Anubis 2-13 | 10 Cache 16-13 | 14 | Split | Under ✗ | OTBO |
| 2026-09-27 | Famalicão | 5 Dust2 7-13 | 8 Ancient 13-4 | 13 | Split | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-26 | STATE | 11 Ancient 9-13 | 13 Cache 19-15 | 24 | Split | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-09-25 | The Last Resort | 8 Inferno 13-11 | 7 Cache 13-8 | 15 | W | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-09-23 | NAVI Junior | 5 Mirage 6-13 | 11 Ancient 16-12 | 16 | Split | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-09-23 | INOX Division | 1 Ancient 5-13 | 5 Dust2 6-13 | 6 | L | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-22 | Black Phoenix | 4 Dust2 6-13 | 5 Inferno 7-13 | 9 | L | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-09-21 | Leo | 11 Mirage 7-13 | 6 Cache 13-10 | 17 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-09-20 | QUAZAR | 10 Inferno 13-7 | 5 Cache 6-13 | 15 | Split | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-09-20 | Honvéd | 7 Inferno 13-7 | 16 Dust2 16-12 | 23 | W | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-09-17 | BAKS | 7 Inferno 13-11 | 7 Cache 9-13 | 14 | Split | Under ✗ |








































































































































































