KillsBetter playRisk
Line
28.5
Pick
OVER
Projection
29.75
Hit
54.2%
EV+
-6.1%
Edge
+1.3
L10
50%
HeadshotsRisk
Line
17
Pick
OVER
Projection
17.08
Hit
47.8%
EV+
-17.3%
Edge
+0.1
L10
30%

Rifler
s1ren
BetBoom vs Nemiga
RISK · OVER 17
BEST OVER · UD 16.5PP17UD16.5SL16.5
▲ L5 19.2 · L20 16.1Risk · Edge +0.1 far below ±2.0
Hit rates at 17 (Over)
L5
40%
2/5
L10
30%
3/10
L20
30%
6/20
H2H
N/A
Volatility
Medium
±5.21
Previous meeting · vs Nemiga
No meeting with Nemiga in his last 20 series.
LAN vs online form
LAN · this match
15.6
5/19 hit at 17
Online
24
1/1 hit at 17
Avg headshots on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm s1ren is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 17
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 61.5%
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
prizepicks · Headshots · Maps 1-2Risk
What to watch · Needs 18+ HS (~31 kills at 57.7% HS): 0.655 KPR over ~45 rounds. His Kills line is 29.5: backing Kills Over needs ~1 fewer kill, usually the easier play. Main danger: a fast 2-0 (53.5%) or blowout (27.9%) cuts rounds.
Side
Over
Projection
17.08
Raw edge
+0.1
Cons. hit
47.8%
EV+
-17.3%
Rating
1.6/10
Exp. rounds
45
Line
17
Verdict
Risk
Plain model
47.8%
+8.7 →
Learned
56.5%
what past results change
learning 1x
learning 1x
Same-line track record · Over 15-19
All players · Headshots
59.7%191 picks
This player
—0 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 50.6% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±2 (pref ±2.5)
- Edge +0.1 below ±2.0 minimum
- EV+ not positive at current payout
- L10 hit rate ≥ 60%: L10 30.0% at this line
- L20 hit rate ≥ 55%: L20 30.0% at this line
Sharp checks · 4/6
Big enough sample · 20 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60% · L10 30.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55% · L20 30.0% at this line
Game script fits · 2-0 sweep 54% (Overs need rounds)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
Projection = 70% model (16.17) + 30% last-5 average
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 17.2 headshots vs line 17.0 (3/10 over). KPR 0.65, HS 58%. Next: vs Nemiga, LAN.
Strongest: L10 average 17.2 against a 17.0 line
Biggest risk: Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
PARTIAL
The call
PASS
Value
NO VALUE
- • Model 17.08 vs line 17 → +0.08 (0.5%)
- • Form L5 40% · L10 30% over this line
- • Close match (45–65%) → longer maps: +1 round per map
- • Expected 45 rounds · 2-0 53.5% · OT 18.9%
Performance (last 40 maps)
Kills/Map
13.9
HS/Map
8.03
K/D
0.96
KPR
0.65
ADR
73.3
KAST
71.7%
HS%
57.7%
Multi-kill
17.1%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Mirage)7.1 · KPR 0.579 · 21.2r
Map 2 (Anubis)9.1 · KPR 0.662 · 23.8r
Required KPR to clear0.655
Base kills (Maps 1-2)28.03
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.-0.05%
Final projected kills28.02
× realistic HS% (57.7%)17.08
Nemiga gives up (70 series)-0.1% vs norm
Likely HS totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Over 17. Model: 50.6% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps27.9%
~14 HS · 38r22.4%
Normal32.9%
~17 HS · 44r40.7%
Close maps20.3%
~18 HS · 48r54.1%
Overtime18.9%
~21 HS · 54r71%
Match context
Oct 25, 11:00 AMLANPGL Masters Bucharest 2026
Win chance source: Polymarket 61.5%
Close match (45–65%) → longer maps: +1 round per map
Game scriptIdeal Over range — team 62% to win (40-70%), competitive maps expected.
M1 Mirage
21.2r
-11% KPR here
M2 Anubis
23.8r
+2% KPR here
Total
45r
2-0 sweep53.5%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)39.2%
Overtime18.9%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)27.9%
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Mirage / Anubis
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 17 (Over) · avg 17.2 · hit 3/10 · tap a bar
17
Nearby lines
| 15 Over | 60.9% | |
| 16 Over | 56.1% | below BE |
| 17 Over | 47.8% | OFFERED |
| 18 Over | 43.2% | below BE |
| 19 Over | 38.8% | below BE |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 17
Line movement
first 17→17no change
- First seen17Oct 25, 12:00 AM
Map stats
Mirage
9 maps
Kills
11
KPR
0.56
HS%
60.6%
K/D
0.82
Anubis
8 maps
Kills
15.5
KPR
0.67
HS%
60.5%
K/D
1.05
Ancient
7 maps
Kills
16
KPR
0.67
HS%
50%
K/D
1.06
Dust2
6 maps
Kills
14.7
KPR
0.66
HS%
60.2%
K/D
1.09
Nuke
6 maps
Kills
12
KPR
0.59
HS%
55.6%
K/D
0.87
Cache
4 maps
Kills
15.2
KPR
0.64
HS%
60.7%
K/D
0.84
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-24 | Spirit | 7 Anubis 10-13 | 9 Ancient 13-3 | 16 | Split | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-18 | FURIA | 7 Dust2 6-13 | 16 Ancient 19-16 | 23 | Split | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-10-17 | Falcons | 6 Anubis 5-13 | 11 Dust2 16-14 | 17 | Split | Under ✗ | OTBO |
| 2026-10-16 | Legacy | 10 Nuke 16-13 | 13 Dust2 11-13 | 23 | Split | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-10-15 | PARIVISION | 4 Ancient 10-13 | 13 Anubis 13-4 | 17 | Split | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-14 | FURIA | 6 Ancient 10-13 | 7 Mirage 9-13 | 13 | L | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-10-06 | 9z | 4 Dust2 8-13 | 8 Mirage 9-13 | 12 | L | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-10-05 | Aurora | 5 Mirage 4-13 | 5 Nuke 13-7 | 10 | Split | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-04 | M80 | 18 Cache 16-14 | 9 Anubis 13-11 | 27 | W | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-10-03 | FURIA | 5 Mirage 5-13 | 9 Cache 14-16 | 14 | L | Under ✗ | OTBO |
| 2026-09-12 | G2 | 8 Mirage 13-7 | 15 Anubis 13-16 | 23 | Split | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-09-10 | MIBR | 9 Mirage 13-9 | 10 Anubis 16-14 | 19 | W | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-09-09 | Astralis | 11 Ancient 16-14 | 5 Anubis 13-8 | 16 | W | Under ✗ | OT |
| 2026-09-08 | BIG | 8 Cache 13-8 | 4 Nuke 13-9 | 12 | W | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-08-29 | SPARTA | 10 Mirage 13-4 | 14 Dust2 13-7 | 24 | W | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-08-14 | Ninjas in Pyjamas | 6 Nuke 3-13 | 10 Anubis 11-13 | 16 | L | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-07-10 | FaZe | 2 Cache 2-13 | 3 Ancient 6-13 | 5 | L | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-07-03 | Nemesis | 3 Mirage 10-13 | 4 Dust2 13-6 | 7 | Split | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-05-17 | Legacy | 5 Mirage 4-13 | 10 Nuke 3-13 | 15 | L | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-05-16 | Natus Vincere | 7 Ancient 8-13 | 5 Nuke 6-13 | 12 | L | Under ✗ |








































































































































































