KillsBetter playRisk
Line
30
Pick
UNDER
Projection
29.28
Hit
42.8%
EV+
-25.8%
Edge
-0.7
L10
20%
HeadshotsRisk
Line
16.5
Pick
UNDER
Projection
16.99
Hit
39.4%
EV+
-31.7%
Edge
+0.5
L10
20%

Rifler
doc
DENDELE vs FURIA
RISK · UNDER 30
BEST UNDER · PP 30PP30UD29.5
▼ L5 30.8 · L20 33.0Risk · Recent form (L5/L10) leans the other way +1LAN UNDER · 35% hit
Hit rates at 30 (Under)
L5
20%
1/5
L10
20%
2/10
L20
22%
4/18
H2H
0%
0/1
Volatility
Medium
±7.36
Previous meeting · vs FURIA
0/1 hit · avg 33 kills on Maps 1-2
2026-07-24 · BLAST Bounty Summer 2026: Closed Qualifier
Anubis 13-6 · Mirage 6-13 · Split
33
Over 30 ✗
LAN vs online form
LAN · this match
34.3
2/12 hit at 30
Online
30.3
2/6 hit at 30
Avg kills on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm doc is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 30
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 18.5%
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
prizepicks · Kills · Maps 1-2Risk
What to watch · Stays under with 29 kills or fewer: below 0.739 KPR over ~41 rounds. Main danger: overtime (11%) or long close maps add rounds.
Side
Under
Projection
29.28
Raw edge
-0.7
Cons. hit
42.8%
EV+
-25.8%
Rating
1/10
Exp. rounds
40.6
Line
30
Verdict
Risk
Plain model
42.8%
-1 →
Learned
41.8%
what past results change
learning 1x
learning 1x
Same-line track record · Under 28-32
All players · Kills
44.1%270 picks
This player
—0 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 53.9% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±3 (pref ±4)
- Edge -0.7 below ±3.0 minimum
- Recent form (L5/L10) does not lean the same way
- EV+ not positive at current payout
- L10 hit rate ≥ 60%: L10 20.0% at this line
- L20 hit rate ≥ 55%: L20 22.2% at this line
Sharp checks · 4/6
Big enough sample · 18 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60% · L10 20.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55% · L20 22.2% at this line
Game script fits · OT chance 11% (Unders hate OT)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
Projection = 70% model (28.63) + 30% last-5 average
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 33.2 kills vs line 26.5 (9/10 over). KPR 0.76, HS 57%. Next: vs FURIA, LAN.
Strongest: L10 average 33.2 against a 26.5 line
Biggest risk: High 2-0 sweep chance (64%) — fewer total rounds
- High 2-0 sweep chance (64%) — fewer total rounds
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
MIXED
The call
PASS
Value
NO VALUE
- • Model 29.28 vs line 30 → -0.72 (-2.4%)
- • Form L5 20% · L10 20% under this line
- • Underdog (≤40%) → fewer rounds (−1/map) and fewer kills (−6% KPR)
- • Expected 40.6 rounds · 2-0 63.5% · OT 11%
Performance (last 36 maps)
Kills/Map
16.5
HS/Map
9.44
K/D
1.12
KPR
0.76
ADR
84.1
KAST
78.2%
HS%
57.2%
Multi-kill
17.4%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Mirage)14.8 · KPR 0.697 · 21.4r
Map 2 (Cache)13.9 · KPR 0.729 · 19.2r
Required KPR to clear0.739
Base kills (Maps 1-2)28.93
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.-1.03%
Final projected kills28.63
FURIA gives up (117 series)-8.1% vs norm
Likely kills totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Under 30. Model: 53.9% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps26.5%
~25 kills · 34r79.8%
Normal53.5%
~30 kills · 42r49.3%
Close maps9%
~31 kills · 43r41.1%
Overtime11%
~36 kills · 49r20.1%
Match context
Oct 24, 04:00 PMLANPGL Masters Bucharest 2026
Win chance source: Polymarket 18.5%
Underdog (≤40%) → fewer rounds (−1/map) and fewer kills (−6% KPR)
Game scriptIdeal Under range — team 18% to win; the lower the %, the fewer rounds he wins and kills he gets.
M1 Mirage
21.4r
-3% KPR here
M2 Cache
19.2r
+2% KPR here
Total
40.6r
2-0 sweep63.5%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)20%
Overtime11%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)26.5%
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Mirage / Cache
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 30 (Under) · avg 33.2 · hit 2/10 · tap a bar
30
Nearby lines
| 28 Under | 36.5% | below BE |
| 29 Under | 39.6% | below BE |
| 30 Under | 42.8% | OFFERED |
| 31 Under | 46% | below BE |
| 32 Under | 49.1% | below BE |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 30
Line movement
first 26.5→30+3.5
- Back on board30 → 30Oct 24, 10:16 PM
- Pulled30Oct 24, 10:15 PM
- Back on board26.5 → 30Oct 24, 10:15 PM
- Pulled26.5Oct 24, 04:10 PM
- First seen26.5Oct 24, 12:00 AM
Map stats
Mirage
10 maps
Kills
16.7
KPR
0.74
HS%
50.9%
K/D
1.1
Cache
9 maps
Kills
15.4
KPR
0.78
HS%
62.6%
K/D
1.09
Nuke
5 maps
Kills
16.2
KPR
0.88
HS%
58%
K/D
1.31
Inferno
4 maps
Kills
16.5
KPR
0.68
HS%
65.2%
K/D
0.93
Ancient
4 maps
Kills
16.5
KPR
0.7
HS%
53%
K/D
0.96
Anubis
4 maps
Kills
18.8
KPR
0.94
HS%
57.3%
K/D
1.53
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-11 | Wildcard | 14 Mirage 13-4 | 24 Nuke 8-13 | 38 | Split | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-11 | Imperial | 19 Mirage 13-8 | 16 Inferno 13-11 | 35 | W | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-10-10 | Wildcard | 12 Mirage 13-16 | 5 Cache 3-13 | 17 | L | Under ✓ | OTBO |
| 2026-09-27 | M80 | 15 Inferno 13-7 | 17 Anubis 9-13 | 32 | Split | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-09-26 | Wildcard | 15 Mirage 13-11 | 17 Nuke 10-13 | 32 | Split | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-09-26 | M80 | 23 Mirage 13-9 | 23 Ancient 16-13 | 46 | W | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-09-25 | Voca | 22 Ancient 13-7 | 18 Cache 13-7 | 40 | W | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-09-02 | Color | 16 Mirage 8-13 | 17 Cache 13-6 | 33 | Split | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-09-02 | EYEBALLERS | 9 Ancient 11-13 | 18 Cache 13-3 | 27 | Split | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-08-28 | Aurora | 11 Cache 7-13 | 21 Mirage 12-16 | 32 | L | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-08-26 | Spirit | 12 Ancient 8-13 | 5 Cache 7-13 | 17 | L | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-08-09 | JiJieHao | 23 Inferno 14-16 | 28 Cache 13-9 | 51 | Split | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-08-07 | SAW | 12 Inferno 13-10 | 19 Anubis 13-10 | 31 | W | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-08-07 | QueenConso | 20 Nuke 13-0 | 21 Anubis 13-3 | 41 | W | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-07-25 | FaZe | 6 Nuke 2-13 | 18 Mirage 13-10 | 24 | Split | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-07-24 | FURIA | 18 Anubis 13-6 | 15 Mirage 6-13 | 33 | Split | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-07-11 | paiN | 18 Cache 13-11 | 14 Nuke 13-7 | 32 | W | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-07-10 | BESTIA | 14 Mirage 10-13 | 19 Cache 13-8 | 33 | Split | Over ✗ |







































































































































































