KillsRisk
Line
31
Pick
OVER
Projection
32.15
Hit
58.9%
EV+
+2.1%
Edge
+1.1
L10
70%
HeadshotsBetter playLean
Line
16
Pick
OVER
Projection
17.57
Hit
62.4%
EV+
+8.0%
Edge
+1.6
L10
70%
#15Ranked 15 of 277 on the board

Rifler
NertZ
G2 vs Aurora
LEAN · OVER 16
BEST OVER · SL 15.5PP16UD16.5SL15.5
▲ L5 20.0 · L20 16.9
Hit rates at 16 (Over)
L5
100%
5/5
L10
70%
7/10
L20
55%
11/20
H2H
50%
1/2
Volatility
Low
±3.75
Previous meeting · vs Aurora
1/2 hit · avg 17 headshots on Maps 1-2
2026-08-31 · BLAST Open Fall 2026
Anubis 7-13 · Inferno 19-16 · Split
18
Over 16 ✓
2026-08-26 · BLAST Open Fall 2026
Inferno 13-5 · Anubis 16-12 · W
16
Under 16 ✗
LAN vs online form
LAN · this match
16.9
11/20 hit at 16
Online
—
no series
Avg headshots on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm Nertz is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 16
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 40.5%
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
prizepicks · Headshots · Maps 1-2Lean
What to watch · Needs 17+ HS (~33 kills at 52% HS): 0.706 KPR over ~44 rounds. His Kills line is 31: backing Kills Over needs ~2 fewer kills, usually the easier play. Main danger: a fast 2-0 (53.5%) or blowout (22.9%) cuts rounds.
Side
Over
Projection
17.57
Raw edge
+1.6
Cons. hit
62.4%
EV+
+8.0%
Rating
5.5/10
Exp. rounds
43.6
Line
16
Verdict
Lean
Plain model
62.4%
+7.8 →
Learned
70.2%
what past results change
learning 1x
learning 1x
Same-line track record · Over 14-18
All players · Headshots
59%234 picks
This player
100%1 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 66.2% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±2 (pref ±2.5)
- Edge +1.6 below ±2.0 minimum
Sharp checks · 6/6
Big enough sample · 20 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60% · L10 70.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55% · L20 55.0% at this line
Game script fits · 2-0 sweep 54% (Overs need rounds)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
Projection = 70% model (16.52) + 30% last-5 average
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 17.6 headshots vs line 16.0 (7/10 over). KPR 0.75, HS 52%. Next: vs Aurora, LAN.
Strongest: L10 average 17.6 against a 16.0 line
Biggest risk: Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
ALIGNED
The call
PASS
Value
THIN
- • Model 17.57 vs line 16 → +1.57 (9.8%)
- • Form L5 100% · L10 70% over this line
- • Slight lean (40–45% / 65–70%) → no adjustment
- • Expected 43.6 rounds · 2-0 53.5% · OT 16.7%
Performance (last 40 maps)
Kills/Map
16.2
HS/Map
8.43
K/D
1.1
KPR
0.75
ADR
85.9
KAST
73.8%
HS%
52%
Multi-kill
20.4%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Ancient)8.3 · KPR 0.759 · 21r
Map 2 (Dust2)8.2 · KPR 0.699 · 22.6r
Required KPR to clear0.706
Base kills (Maps 1-2)31.74
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.+0.13%
Final projected kills31.78
× realistic HS% (52%)17.57
Aurora gives up (91 series)-0.5% vs norm
Likely HS totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Over 16. Model: 66.2% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps22.9%
~15 HS · 37r31.6%
Normal46.3%
~17 HS · 43r55.5%
Close maps14.1%
~19 HS · 47r68.7%
Overtime16.7%
~21 HS · 53r84.2%
Match context
Oct 25, 02:00 PMLANPGL Masters Bucharest 2026
Win chance source: Polymarket 40.5%
Slight lean (40–45% / 65–70%) → no adjustment
Game scriptIdeal Over range — team 40% to win (40-70%), competitive maps expected.
M1 Ancient
21r
+1% KPR here
M2 Dust2
22.6r
-7% KPR here
Total
43.6r
2-0 sweep53.5%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)30.8%
Overtime16.7%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)22.9%
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Ancient / Dust2
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 16 (Over) · avg 17.6 · hit 7/10 · tap a bar
16
Nearby lines
| 14 Over | 66.3% | |
| 15 Over | 64.7% | |
| 16 Over | 62.4% | OFFERED |
| 17 Over | 53% | below BE |
| 18 Over | 46.7% | below BE |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 16
Line movement
first 16→16no change
- First seen16Oct 25, 12:00 AM
Map stats
Ancient
12 maps
Kills
15.9
KPR
0.76
HS%
49.2%
K/D
1.1
Dust2
8 maps
Kills
15.6
KPR
0.68
HS%
58.4%
K/D
1.07
Inferno
6 maps
Kills
14
KPR
0.63
HS%
47.6%
K/D
0.89
Anubis
5 maps
Kills
19
KPR
0.83
HS%
52.6%
K/D
1.34
Mirage
4 maps
Kills
18
KPR
0.73
HS%
45.8%
K/D
1.07
Cache
4 maps
Kills
16.2
KPR
0.8
HS%
56.9%
K/D
1.25
Nuke
1 maps
Kills
16
KPR
0.67
HS%
62.5%
K/D
1.07
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-24 | Natus Vincere | 10 Nuke 11-13 | 14 Dust2 19-22 | 24 | L | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-10-06 | PARIVISION | 8 Ancient 7-13 | 13 Anubis 13-9 | 21 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-10-05 | ShindeN | 12 Dust2 13-6 | 9 Ancient 13-9 | 21 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-10-04 | 1win | 9 Dust2 11-13 | 8 Ancient 13-1 | 17 | Split | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-03 | Natus Vincere | 10 Cache 7-13 | 7 Inferno 4-13 | 17 | L | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-13 | Legacy | 5 Ancient 9-13 | 7 Mirage 10-13 | 12 | L | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-09-12 | BetBoom | 3 Mirage 7-13 | 12 Anubis 16-13 | 15 | Split | Under ✗ | OT |
| 2026-09-11 | FURIA | 10 Ancient 16-14 | 7 Dust2 13-3 | 17 | W | Over ✓ | OTBO |
| 2026-09-10 | 5star | 5 Inferno 13-9 | 7 Ancient 13-4 | 12 | W | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-10 | 9z | 10 Dust2 11-13 | 10 Ancient 13-8 | 20 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-09-09 | BIG | 12 Cache 8-13 | 12 Mirage 13-7 | 24 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-09-08 | Astralis | 5 Ancient 9-13 | 11 Mirage 19-17 | 16 | Split | Under ✗ | OT |
| 2026-09-04 | Falcons | 3 Inferno 6-13 | 10 Dust2 9-13 | 13 | L | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-08-31 | Aurora | 10 Anubis 7-13 | 8 Inferno 19-16 | 18 | Split | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-08-30 | Natus Vincere | 5 Ancient 13-6 | 8 Inferno 13-10 | 13 | W | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-08-28 | Spirit | 4 Dust2 6-13 | 4 Cache 9-13 | 8 | L | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-08-26 | Aurora | 9 Inferno 13-5 | 7 Anubis 16-12 | 16 | W | Under ✗ | OTBO |
| 2026-08-20 | FURIA | 6 Ancient 3-13 | 8 Anubis 13-3 | 14 | Split | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-08-19 | Astralis | 10 Ancient 6-13 | 7 Dust2 13-6 | 17 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-08-13 | BIG | 11 Cache 13-5 | 11 Ancient 13-16 | 22 | Split | Over ✓ | OTBO |








































































































































































