KillsRisk
Line
27.5
Pick
UNDER
Projection
27.75
Hit
43.3%
EV+
-25.0%
Edge
+0.3
L10
60%
HeadshotsBetter playRisk
Line
14.5
Pick
UNDER
Projection
14.3
Hit
48.6%
EV+
-15.9%
Edge
-0.2
L10
70%

Rifler
PR
MOUZ vs Liquid
RISK · UNDER 14.5
SAME LINE ON ALL APPSPP14.5UD14.5
≈ L5 13.6 · L20 14.2Risk · Edge -0.2 far below ±2.0
Hit rates at 14.5 (Under)
L5
60%
3/5
L10
70%
7/10
L20
55%
11/20
H2H
0%
0/1
Volatility
Low
±3.75
Previous meeting · vs Liquid
0/1 hit · avg 17 headshots on Maps 1-2
2026-10-24 · PGL Masters Bucharest 2026
Ancient 16-13 · Inferno 12-16 · Split
17
Over 14.5 ✗
LAN vs online form
LAN
14.2
11/20 hit at 14.5
Online · this match
—
no series
Avg headshots on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Veto confirmed — re-check map order
- Confirm PR is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 14.5
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match schedule
prizepicks · Headshots · Maps 1-2Risk
What to watch · Stays under with 14 HS or fewer (under ~29 kills at 51.7% HS): below 0.626 KPR over ~45 rounds. Main danger: overtime (14.4%) or long close maps add rounds.
Side
Under
Projection
14.3
Raw edge
-0.2
Cons. hit
48.6%
EV+
-15.9%
Rating
2/10
Exp. rounds
44.8
Line
14.5
Verdict
Risk
Plain model
48.6%
+8.7 →
Learned
57.3%
what past results change
learning 1x
learning 1x
Same-line track record · Under 12.5-16.5
All players · Headshots
38.3%261 picks
This player
0%1 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 52.1% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±2 (pref ±2.5)
- Edge -0.2 below ±2.0 minimum
- EV+ not positive at current payout
Sharp checks · 6/6
Big enough sample · 20 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60% · L10 70.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55% · L20 55.0% at this line
Game script fits · OT chance 14% (Unders hate OT)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
Projection = 70% model (14.6) + 30% last-5 average
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 13.1 headshots vs line 14.5 (3/10 over). KPR 0.60, HS 52%. Next: vs Liquid, LAN/Online unknown.
Strongest: L10 average 13.1 against a 14.5 line
Biggest risk: Normal CS2 variance
The read
Signal
ALIGNED
The call
PASS
Value
NO VALUE
- • Model 14.3 vs line 14.5 → -0.2 (-1.4%)
- • Form L5 60% · L10 70% under this line
- • Win chance unknown — no favourite adjustment
- • Expected 44.8 rounds · 2-0 50% · OT 14.4%
Performance (last 40 maps)
Kills/Map
13.68
HS/Map
7.08
K/D
1
KPR
0.6
ADR
68.1
KAST
77.1%
HS%
51.7%
Multi-kill
12.4%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Ancient)7.9 · KPR 0.662 · 23.1r
Map 2 (Inferno)6.7 · KPR 0.598 · 21.7r
Required KPR to clear0.626
Base kills (Maps 1-2)28.27
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.-0.11%
Final projected kills28.24
× realistic HS% (51.7%)14.3
Liquid gives up (41 series)-8.4% vs norm
Likely HS totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Under 14.5. Model: 52.1% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps24.4%
~12 HS · 38r76.7%
Normal44.8%
~14 HS · 45r54.6%
Close maps16.4%
~15 HS · 48r43.8%
Overtime14.4%
~17 HS · 54r27%
Match context
Oct 24, 10:00 AMOnline
Win chance source: —
Win chance unknown — no favourite adjustment
M1 Ancient
23.1r
+10% KPR here
M2 Inferno
21.7r
-1% KPR here
Total
44.8r
2-0 sweep50%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)30.8%
Overtime14.4%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)24.4%
Veto confirmed (HLTV): Ancient / Inferno
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 14.5 (Under) · avg 13.1 · hit 7/10 · tap a bar
14.5
Nearby lines
| 12.5 Under | 34.3% | below BE |
| 13.5 Under | 42.2% | below BE |
| 14.5 Under | 48.6% | OFFERED |
| 15.5 Under | 54.7% | below BE |
| 16.5 Under | 60.9% |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 14.5
Line movement
first 14.5→14.5no change
- Back on board14.5 → 14.5Oct 24, 10:16 PM
- Pulled14.5Oct 24, 09:11 AM
- Back on board14.5 → 14.5Oct 24, 09:10 AM
- Pulled14.5Oct 24, 09:10 AM
- First seen14.5Oct 24, 12:00 AM
Map stats
Mirage
10 maps
Kills
12.9
KPR
0.59
HS%
50.4%
K/D
0.99
Cache
7 maps
Kills
13.1
KPR
0.63
HS%
46.7%
K/D
1.02
Dust2
7 maps
Kills
11.1
KPR
0.52
HS%
61.5%
K/D
0.83
Inferno
6 maps
Kills
13
KPR
0.6
HS%
51.3%
K/D
1
Ancient
6 maps
Kills
16.5
KPR
0.69
HS%
51.5%
K/D
1.05
Nuke
4 maps
Kills
17.8
KPR
0.78
HS%
50.7%
K/D
1.15
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-24 | Liquid | 10 Ancient 16-13 | 7 Inferno 12-16 | 17 | Split | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-10-11 | Vitality | 7 Cache 8-13 | 4 Inferno 7-13 | 11 | L | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-10-10 | Spirit | 8 Dust2 13-7 | 4 Mirage 5-13 | 12 | Split | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-09 | FURIA | 11 Nuke 13-11 | 10 Inferno 13-6 | 21 | W | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-10-05 | Spirit | 5 Dust2 13-5 | 2 Mirage 13-11 | 7 | W | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-04 | FURIA | 5 Cache 13-4 | 8 Mirage 13-7 | 13 | W | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-03 | M80 | 10 Cache 13-9 | 6 Mirage 13-6 | 16 | W | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-09-19 | FURIA | 4 Cache 8-13 | 8 Mirage 19-16 | 12 | Split | Under ✓ | OT |
| 2026-09-18 | Natus Vincere | 5 Cache 10-13 | 5 Inferno 13-10 | 10 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-09-17 | NRG | 6 Cache 11-13 | 6 Inferno 13-5 | 12 | Split | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-06 | Spirit | 5 Dust2 8-13 | 7 Mirage 13-11 | 12 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-09-05 | Vitality | 9 Dust2 13-11 | 6 Mirage 13-7 | 15 | W | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-08-31 | Falcons | 3 Nuke 6-13 | 9 Ancient 13-6 | 12 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-08-29 | Inner Circle | 9 Ancient 13-4 | 8 Mirage 13-5 | 17 | W | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-08-27 | 9z | 6 Cache 13-4 | 6 Nuke 13-7 | 12 | W | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-08-21 | FUT | 5 Dust2 13-16 | 3 Ancient 5-13 | 8 | L | Under ✓ | OTBO |
| 2026-08-19 | GamerLegion | 8 Mirage 13-11 | 13 Ancient 19-22 | 21 | Split | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-08-16 | PARIVISION | 7 Dust2 13-4 | 8 Inferno 13-10 | 15 | W | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-08-14 | FUT | 7 Ancient 6-13 | 16 Nuke 16-12 | 23 | Split | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-08-02 | Spirit | 9 Dust2 13-8 | 8 Mirage 13-4 | 17 | W | Over ✗ | BO |







































































































































































