KillsRisk
Line
31.5
Pick
UNDER
Projection
30.71
Hit
49.5%
EV+
-14.3%
Edge
-0.8
L10
71%
HeadshotsBetter playLean
Line
11.5
Pick
UNDER
Projection
9.5
Hit
58.8%
EV+
+1.9%
Edge
-2.0
L10
71%

AWPer
sL1m3
STATE vs overTIME
RISK · UNDER 31.5
Risk · Edge -0.8 far below ±3.0STAND-IN? · Altekz
Hit rates at 31.5 (Under)
L5
80%
4/5
L10
71%
5/7
L20
71%
5/7
H2H
100%
1/1
Volatility
Low
±5.21
Previous meeting · vs overTIME
1/1 hit · avg 27 kills on Maps 1-2
2026-10-24 · Hotspawn 10k Showdown
Anubis 13-3 · Nuke 13-1 · W
27
Under 31.5 ✓
LAN vs online form
LAN
27
1/1 hit at 31.5
Online · this match
31.2
4/6 hit at 31.5
Avg kills on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm sL1m3 is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 31.5
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match schedule
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
underdog · Kills · Maps 1-2Risk
What to watch · Stays under with 31 kills or fewer: below 0.726 KPR over ~43 rounds. Main danger: overtime (7.9%) or long close maps add rounds.
Side
Under
Projection
30.71
Raw edge
-0.8
Cons. hit
49.5%
EV+
-14.3%
Rating
2.5/10
Exp. rounds
43.4
Line
31.5
Verdict
Risk
Plain model
49.5%
-6.8 →
Learned
42.7%
what past results change
learning 1x
learning 1x
Same-line track record · Under 29.5-33.5
All players · Kills
42.3%213 picks
This player
100%1 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 56% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±3 (pref ±4)
- Edge -0.8 below ±3.0 minimum
- EV+ not positive at current payout
- Big enough sample: 7 recent series (need 8+)
Sharp checks · 5/6
Big enough sample · 7 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60% · L10 71.4% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55% · L20 71.4% at this line
Game script fits · OT chance 8% (Unders hate OT)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
Projection = 70% model (31.53) + 30% last-5 average
Evidence & risk
Last 7 series Maps 1-2: avg 30.6 kills vs line 31.5 (2/7 over). KPR 0.71, HS 31%. Next: vs overTIME, LAN/Online unknown.
Strongest: L10 average 30.6 against a 31.5 line
Biggest risk: 29% of recent maps were blowouts (13-5 or worse)
- 29% of recent maps were blowouts (13-5 or worse)
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
- Small sample (7 series)
The read
Signal
PARTIAL
The call
PASS
Value
NO VALUE
- • Model 30.71 vs line 31.5 → -0.79 (-2.5%)
- • Form L5 80% · L10 71.4% under this line
- • Win chance unknown — no favourite adjustment
- • Expected 43.4 rounds · 2-0 50% · OT 7.9%
Performance (last 14 maps)
Kills/Map
15.29
HS/Map
4.71
K/D
1.09
KPR
0.71
ADR
69.5
KAST
72.8%
HS%
30.8%
Multi-kill
18.9%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Cache)16.6 · KPR 0.702 · 23.8r
Map 2 (Nuke)15 · KPR 0.771 · 19.6r
Required KPR to clear0.726
Base kills (Maps 1-2)31.82
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.-0.91%
Final projected kills31.53
overTIME gives up (10 series)+7% vs norm
Likely kills totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Under 31.5. Model: 56% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps26.3%
~26 kills · 37r86.2%
Normal33.7%
~31 kills · 44r54.8%
Close maps32.1%
~33 kills · 46r42%
Overtime7.9%
~37 kills · 52r18.6%
Match context
Oct 24, 09:00 AMOnline
Win chance source: —
Win chance unknown — no favourite adjustment
M1 Cache
23.8r
-1% KPR here
M2 Nuke
19.6r
+8% KPR here
Total
43.4r
2-0 sweep50%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)40%
Overtime7.9%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)26.3%
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Cache / Nuke
Recent Maps 1-2 form
7 series · line 31.5 (Under) · avg 30.6 · hit 5/7 · tap a bar
31.5
Nearby lines
| 29.5 Under | 37.5% | below BE |
| 30.5 Under | 43.5% | below BE |
| 31.5 Under | 49.5% | OFFERED |
| 32.5 Under | 53% | below BE |
| 33.5 Under | 56.1% | below BE |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 31.5
Line movement
first 31.5→offno change
- Pulled31.5Oct 24, 09:12 AM
- First seen31.5Oct 23, 11:11 PM
Map stats
Cache
4 maps
Kills
17.8
KPR
0.7
HS%
29.6%
K/D
1.08
Nuke
3 maps
Kills
14.7
KPR
0.83
HS%
36.4%
K/D
1.22
Inferno
2 maps
Kills
14.5
KPR
0.64
HS%
31%
K/D
1
Anubis
2 maps
Kills
14
KPR
0.82
HS%
39.3%
K/D
1.56
Mirage
2 maps
Kills
13
KPR
0.58
HS%
23.1%
K/D
0.79
Ancient
1 maps
Kills
16
KPR
0.73
HS%
18.8%
K/D
1.07
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-24 | overTIME | 16 Anubis 13-3 | 11 Nuke 13-1 | 27 | W | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-07 | HOTU | 10 Nuke 3-13 | 12 Anubis 13-5 | 22 | Split | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-26 | G2 Ares | 16 Ancient 13-9 | 20 Cache 15-19 | 36 | Split | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-09-25 | Famalicão | 13 Inferno 10-13 | 17 Cache 13-11 | 30 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-09-23 | Illyrians | 14 Mirage 11-13 | 15 Cache 13-11 | 29 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-09-23 | ex-Zero Tenacity | 16 Inferno 9-13 | 23 Nuke 13-10 | 39 | Split | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-09-22 | KAMUI | 12 Mirage 8-13 | 19 Cache 13-7 | 31 | Split | Under ✓ |








































































































































































