KillsRisk
Line
27.5
Pick
UNDER
Projection
25.71
Hit
50.3%
EV+
-12.8%
Edge
-1.8
L10
40%
HeadshotsRisk
Line
14.5
Pick
UNDER
Projection
13.83
Hit
50.4%
EV+
-12.8%
Edge
-0.7
L10
50%

Rifler
koala
DENDELE vs FURIA
RISK · UNDER 27.5
BEST UNDER · UD 28.5PP27.5UD28.5
≈ L5 30.0 · L20 29.3Risk · Recent form (L5/L10) leans the other way +1LAN UNDER · 35% hit
Hit rates at 27.5 (Under)
L5
40%
2/5
L10
40%
4/10
L20
39%
7/18
H2H
100%
1/1
Volatility
Medium
±7.19
Previous meeting · vs FURIA
1/1 hit · avg 24 kills on Maps 1-2
2026-07-24 · BLAST Bounty Summer 2026: Closed Qualifier
Anubis 13-6 · Mirage 6-13 · Split
24
Under 27.5 ✓
LAN vs online form
LAN · this match
30.8
4/12 hit at 27.5
Online
26.3
3/6 hit at 27.5
Avg kills on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm koala is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 27.5
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 18.5%
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
prizepicks · Kills · Maps 1-2Risk
What to watch · Stays under with 27 kills or fewer: below 0.677 KPR over ~41 rounds. Main danger: overtime (11%) or long close maps add rounds.
Side
Under
Projection
25.71
Raw edge
-1.8
Cons. hit
50.3%
EV+
-12.8%
Rating
1.1/10
Exp. rounds
40.6
Line
27.5
Verdict
Risk
Plain model
50.3%
+0.8 →
Learned
51.1%
what past results change
learning 1x
learning 1x
Same-line track record · Under 25.5-29.5
All players · Kills
44.1%331 picks
This player
0%1 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 59.9% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±3 (pref ±4)
- Edge -1.8 below ±3.0 minimum
- Recent form (L5/L10) does not lean the same way
- EV+ not positive at current payout
- L10 hit rate ≥ 60%: L10 40.0% at this line
- L20 hit rate ≥ 55%: L20 38.9% at this line
Sharp checks · 4/6
Big enough sample · 18 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60% · L10 40.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55% · L20 38.9% at this line
Game script fits · OT chance 11% (Unders hate OT)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
Projection = 70% model (23.87) + 30% last-5 average
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 29.6 kills vs line 25.5 (6/10 over). KPR 0.68, HS 53%. Next: vs FURIA, LAN.
Strongest: L10 average 29.6 against a 25.5 line
Biggest risk: High 2-0 sweep chance (64%) — fewer total rounds
- High 2-0 sweep chance (64%) — fewer total rounds
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
MIXED
The call
PASS
Value
NO VALUE
- • Model 25.71 vs line 27.5 → -1.79 (-6.5%)
- • Form L5 40% · L10 40% under this line
- • Underdog (≤40%) → fewer rounds (−1/map) and fewer kills (−6% KPR)
- • Expected 40.6 rounds · 2-0 63.5% · OT 11%
Performance (last 36 maps)
Kills/Map
14.64
HS/Map
7.69
K/D
1.1
KPR
0.68
ADR
75.9
KAST
72.6%
HS%
52.6%
Multi-kill
15.6%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Mirage)12.7 · KPR 0.6 · 21.4r
Map 2 (Cache)11.2 · KPR 0.587 · 19.2r
Required KPR to clear0.677
Base kills (Maps 1-2)24.11
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.-1.03%
Final projected kills23.87
FURIA gives up (117 series)-8.1% vs norm
Likely kills totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Under 27.5. Model: 59.9% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps26.5%
~22 kills · 34r83.8%
Normal53.5%
~26 kills · 42r59.5%
Close maps9%
~28 kills · 43r52.3%
Overtime11%
~31 kills · 49r31.4%
Match context
Oct 24, 04:00 PMLANPGL Masters Bucharest 2026
Win chance source: Polymarket 18.5%
Underdog (≤40%) → fewer rounds (−1/map) and fewer kills (−6% KPR)
Game scriptIdeal Under range — team 18% to win; the lower the %, the fewer rounds he wins and kills he gets.
M1 Mirage
21.4r
-6% KPR here
M2 Cache
19.2r
-8% KPR here
Total
40.6r
2-0 sweep63.5%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)20%
Overtime11%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)26.5%
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Mirage / Cache
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 27.5 (Under) · avg 29.6 · hit 4/10 · tap a bar
27.5
Nearby lines
| 25.5 Under | 43.8% | below BE |
| 26.5 Under | 47.1% | below BE |
| 27.5 Under | 50.3% | OFFERED |
| 28.5 Under | 55.2% | below BE |
| 29.5 Under | 59.3% |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 27.5
Line movement
first 25.5→27.5+2
- Back on board27.5 → 27.5Oct 24, 10:16 PM
- Pulled27.5Oct 24, 10:15 PM
- Back on board25.5 → 27.5Oct 24, 10:15 PM
- Pulled25.5Oct 24, 04:10 PM
- First seen25.5Oct 24, 12:00 AM
Map stats
Mirage
10 maps
Kills
14.2
KPR
0.63
HS%
48.6%
K/D
1.1
Cache
9 maps
Kills
12
KPR
0.61
HS%
50.9%
K/D
0.96
Nuke
5 maps
Kills
12.2
KPR
0.66
HS%
60.7%
K/D
1
Inferno
4 maps
Kills
22.2
KPR
0.92
HS%
53.9%
K/D
1.48
Ancient
4 maps
Kills
20.8
KPR
0.88
HS%
51.8%
K/D
1.32
Anubis
4 maps
Kills
11
KPR
0.55
HS%
56.8%
K/D
0.81
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-11 | Wildcard | 12 Mirage 13-4 | 9 Nuke 8-13 | 21 | Split | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-11 | Imperial | 14 Mirage 13-8 | 25 Inferno 13-11 | 39 | W | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-10-10 | Wildcard | 14 Mirage 13-16 | 7 Cache 3-13 | 21 | L | Under ✓ | OTBO |
| 2026-09-27 | M80 | 25 Inferno 13-7 | 10 Anubis 9-13 | 35 | Split | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-09-26 | Wildcard | 19 Mirage 13-11 | 15 Nuke 10-13 | 34 | Split | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-09-26 | M80 | 15 Mirage 13-9 | 27 Ancient 16-13 | 42 | W | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-09-25 | Voca | 19 Ancient 13-7 | 10 Cache 13-7 | 29 | W | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-09-02 | Color | 14 Mirage 8-13 | 10 Cache 13-6 | 24 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-09-02 | EYEBALLERS | 16 Ancient 11-13 | 12 Cache 13-3 | 28 | Split | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-08-28 | Aurora | 14 Cache 7-13 | 9 Mirage 12-16 | 23 | L | Under ✓ | OT |
| 2026-08-26 | Spirit | 21 Ancient 8-13 | 14 Cache 7-13 | 35 | L | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-08-09 | JiJieHao | 25 Inferno 14-16 | 16 Cache 13-9 | 41 | Split | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-08-07 | SAW | 14 Inferno 13-10 | 17 Anubis 13-10 | 31 | W | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-08-07 | QueenConso | 13 Nuke 13-0 | 5 Anubis 13-3 | 18 | W | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-07-25 | FaZe | 5 Nuke 2-13 | 18 Mirage 13-10 | 23 | Split | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-07-24 | FURIA | 12 Anubis 13-6 | 12 Mirage 6-13 | 24 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-07-11 | paiN | 12 Cache 13-11 | 19 Nuke 13-7 | 31 | W | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-07-10 | BESTIA | 15 Mirage 10-13 | 13 Cache 13-8 | 28 | Split | Over ✗ |







































































































































































