KillsBetter playLean
Line
22.5
Pick
OVER
Projection
26.14
Hit
61.5%
EV+
+6.5%
Edge
+3.6
L10
50%
HeadshotsLean
Line
14.5
Pick
OVER
Projection
16.04
Hit
61%
EV+
+5.7%
Edge
+1.5
L10
60%

Rifler
Techno4k
The Mongolz vs Aurora Gaming
LEAN · OVER 22.5
UD22.5
▲ L5 27.6 · L20 24.5
Hit rates at 22.5 (Over)
L5
80%
4/5
L10
50%
5/10
L20
55%
11/20
H2H
100%
1/1
Volatility
Low
±6.3
Previous meeting · vs Aurora Gaming
1/1 hit · avg 28 kills on Maps 1-2
2026-10-24 · PGL Masters Bucharest 2026
Inferno 12-16 · Nuke 13-2 · Split
28
Over 22.5 ✓
LAN vs online form
LAN
24.7
10/18 hit at 22.5
Online · this match
23
1/2 hit at 22.5
Avg kills on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm Techno4K is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 23.5
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match schedule
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
underdog · Kills · Maps 1-2Lean
What to watch · Needs 23+ kills: 0.528 KPR over ~43 rounds. Main danger: a fast 2-0 (50%) or blowout (24.4%) cuts rounds.
Side
Over
Projection
26.14
Raw edge
+3.6
Cons. hit
61.5%
EV+
+6.5%
Rating
5.5/10
Exp. rounds
42.6
Line
22.5
Verdict
Lean
Plain model
61.5%
-4.1 →
Learned
57.4%
what past results change
learning 1x
learning 1x
Same-line track record · Over 20.5-24.5
All players · Kills
68.2%44 picks
This player
100%1 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 71.8% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±3 (pref ±4)
- L10 hit rate ≥ 60%: L10 50.0% at this line
Sharp checks · 5/6
Big enough sample · 20 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60% · L10 50.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55% · L20 55.0% at this line
Game script fits · 2-0 sweep 50% (Overs need rounds)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
Projection = 70% model (25.51) + 30% last-5 average
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 24.1 kills vs line 23.5 (4/10 over). KPR 0.60, HS 60%. Next: vs Aurora Gaming, LAN/Online unknown.
Strongest: L10 average 24.1 against a 23.5 line
Biggest risk: Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
PARTIAL
The call
SMALL EDGE ONLY
Value
THIN
- • Model 26.14 vs line 22.5 → +3.64 (16.2%)
- • Form L5 80% · L10 50% over this line
- • Win chance unknown — no favourite adjustment
- • Expected 42.6 rounds · 2-0 50% · OT 10%
Performance (last 40 maps)
Kills/Map
12.25
HS/Map
7.3
K/D
0.9
KPR
0.6
ADR
67.7
KAST
72%
HS%
59.6%
Multi-kill
13.9%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Inferno)12.6 · KPR 0.613 · 20.7r
Map 2 (Mirage)12.9 · KPR 0.592 · 21.9r
Required KPR to clear0.528
Base kills (Maps 1-2)25.65
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.-0.55%
Final projected kills25.51
Aurora Gaming gives up (91 series)-1.7% vs norm
Likely kills totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Over 22.5. Model: 71.8% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps24.4%
~22 kills · 36r44%
Normal53.1%
~27 kills · 43r75.8%
Close maps12.5%
~28 kills · 46r82.5%
Overtime10%
~32 kills · 52r93.7%
Match context
Oct 24, 07:00 AMOnline
Win chance source: —
Win chance unknown — no favourite adjustment
M1 Inferno
20.7r
+3% KPR here
M2 Mirage
21.9r
-1% KPR here
Total
42.6r
2-0 sweep50%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)22.5%
Overtime10%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)24.4%
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Inferno / Mirage
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 22.5 (Over) · avg 24.1 · hit 5/10 · tap a bar
22.5
Nearby lines
| 20.5 Over | 65.5% | |
| 21.5 Over | 64% | |
| 22.5 Over | 61.5% | OFFERED |
| 23.5 Over | 57.7% | |
| 24.5 Over | 54.6% | below BE |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 23.5
Line movement
first 23.5→22.5-1
- Back on board23.5 → 22.5Oct 24, 08:14 PM
- Pulled23.5Oct 24, 07:12 AM
- First seen23.5Oct 23, 12:41 PM
Map stats
Inferno
11 maps
Kills
12.6
KPR
0.62
HS%
56.1%
K/D
0.93
Mirage
8 maps
Kills
13
KPR
0.59
HS%
61.5%
K/D
0.9
Nuke
6 maps
Kills
10.2
KPR
0.48
HS%
62.3%
K/D
0.74
Ancient
5 maps
Kills
15.2
KPR
0.67
HS%
61.8%
K/D
1
Dust2
5 maps
Kills
12.8
KPR
0.6
HS%
62.5%
K/D
1.16
Cache
3 maps
Kills
9.7
KPR
0.49
HS%
58.6%
K/D
0.69
Overpass
2 maps
Kills
8.5
KPR
0.46
HS%
47.1%
K/D
0.68
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-24 | Aurora | 19 Inferno 12-16 | 9 Nuke 13-2 | 28 | Split | Over ✓ | OTBO |
| 2026-10-22 | PARIVISION | 12 Ancient 13-6 | 13 Mirage 13-11 | 25 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-10-22 | BIG | 12 Cache 4-13 | 10 Inferno 13-3 | 22 | Split | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-21 | PRIVATE | 12 Mirage 13-6 | 11 Ancient 13-7 | 23 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-10-21 | magic | 25 Inferno 13-9 | 15 Ancient 13-10 | 40 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-10-20 | BIG | 9 Cache 8-13 | 8 Mirage 4-13 | 17 | L | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-19 | Alliance | 14 Inferno 13-8 | 13 Dust2 13-11 | 27 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-08-20 | Falcons | 8 Inferno 3-13 | 12 Dust2 9-13 | 20 | L | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-08-16 | paiN | 11 Nuke 13-10 | 7 Inferno 13-4 | 18 | W | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-08-15 | Natus Vincere | 8 Inferno 5-13 | 13 Ancient 13-9 | 21 | Split | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-07-31 | FaZe | 14 Nuke 12-16 | 8 Mirage 13-7 | 22 | Split | Under ✗ | OT |
| 2026-07-26 | Wildcard | 12 Dust2 13-7 | 19 Inferno 13-9 | 31 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-07-24 | HEROIC | 7 Nuke 5-13 | 8 Cache 13-8 | 15 | Split | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-06-15 | 9z | 6 Inferno 8-13 | 9 Overpass 8-13 | 15 | L | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-06-14 | Monte | 7 Nuke 9-13 | 11 Inferno 13-7 | 18 | Split | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-06-13 | Natus Vincere | 13 Nuke 13-8 | 25 Ancient 13-16 | 38 | Split | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-06-12 | B8 | 20 Mirage 16-14 | 8 Overpass 13-3 | 28 | W | Over ✓ | OTBO |
| 2026-06-11 | BetBoom | 13 Dust2 13-11 | 13 Mirage 6-13 | 26 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-05-22 | Legacy | 12 Inferno 11-13 | 13 Mirage 13-10 | 25 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-05-22 | PARIVISION | 14 Dust2 13-4 | 17 Mirage 13-11 | 31 | W | Over ✓ | BO |








































































































































































