KillsRisk
Line
30.5
Pick
OVER
Projection
30.9
Hit
53.8%
EV+
-6.8%
Edge
+0.4
L10
60%
HeadshotsBetter playRisk
Line
16.5
Pick
OVER
Projection
17.09
Hit
56.1%
EV+
-2.9%
Edge
+0.6
L10
60%

Rifler
noway
Imperial vs BESTIA
RISK · OVER 16.5
▲ L5 17.0 · L20 16.1Risk · Recent form (L5/L10) leans the other way +1
Hit rates at 16.5 (Over)
L5
80%
4/5
L10
60%
6/10
L20
64%
9/14
H2H
50%
1/2
Volatility
Medium
±4.75
Previous meeting · vs BESTIA
1/2 hit · avg 13 headshots on Maps 1-2
2026-10-22 · Circuit X Curitiba 4
Dust2 7-13 · Mirage 7-13 · L
8
Under 16.5 ✗
2026-09-19 · Circuit X Curitiba 3
Mirage 10-13 · Nuke 13-2 · Split
18
Over 16.5 ✓
LAN vs online form
LAN · this match
15.8
8/13 hit at 16.5
Online
20
1/1 hit at 16.5
Avg headshots on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm noway is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 16.5
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 63.5%
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
prizepicks · Headshots · Maps 1-2Risk
What to watch · Needs 17+ HS (~31 kills at 54.6% HS): 0.681 KPR over ~44 rounds. Main danger: a fast 2-0 (54%) or blowout (28.3%) cuts rounds.
Side
Over
Projection
17.09
Raw edge
+0.6
Cons. hit
56.1%
EV+
-2.9%
Rating
3.2/10
Exp. rounds
44.4
Line
16.5
Verdict
Risk
Plain model
56.1%
+8.4 →
Learned
64.5%
what past results change
learning 1x
learning 1x
Same-line track record · Over 14.5-18.5
All players · Headshots
59.5%247 picks
This player
100%2 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 54.9% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±2 (pref ±2.5)
- Edge +0.6 below ±2.0 minimum
- Recent form (L5/L10) does not lean the same way
- EV+ not positive at current payout
Sharp checks · 6/6
Big enough sample · 14 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60% · L10 60.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55% · L20 64.3% at this line
Game script fits · 2-0 sweep 54% (Overs need rounds)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
Projection = 70% model (17.13) + 30% last-5 average
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 15.8 headshots vs line 16.5 (6/10 over). KPR 0.67, HS 55%. Next: vs BESTIA, LAN.
Strongest: L10 average 15.8 against a 16.5 line
Biggest risk: Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
MIXED
The call
PASS
Value
NO VALUE
- • Model 17.09 vs line 16.5 → +0.59 (3.6%)
- • Form L5 80% · L10 60% over this line
- • Close match (45–65%) → longer maps: +1 round per map
- • Expected 44.4 rounds · 2-0 54% · OT 13.6%
Performance (last 28 maps)
Kills/Map
14.79
HS/Map
8.07
K/D
1.09
KPR
0.67
ADR
71.7
KAST
75.2%
HS%
54.6%
Multi-kill
15.6%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Mirage)7.5 · KPR 0.595 · 23.2r
Map 2 (Nuke)9.6 · KPR 0.838 · 21.2r
Required KPR to clear0.681
Base kills (Maps 1-2)31.57
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.-0.62%
Final projected kills31.37
× realistic HS% (54.6%)17.09
BESTIA gives up (72 series)+4.5% vs norm
Likely HS totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Over 16.5. Model: 54.9% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps28.3%
~14 HS · 37r28.1%
Normal30.6%
~17 HS · 44r52.7%
Close maps27.5%
~18 HS · 48r64.3%
Overtime13.6%
~21 HS · 54r80.6%
Match context
Oct 24, 09:00 PMLANCircuit X Curitiba 4
Win chance source: Polymarket 63.5%
Close match (45–65%) → longer maps: +1 round per map
Game scriptIdeal Over range — team 64% to win (40-70%), competitive maps expected.
M1 Mirage
23.2r
-11% KPR here
M2 Nuke
21.2r
+25% KPR here
Total
44.4r
2-0 sweep54%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)41.1%
Overtime13.6%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)28.3%
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Mirage / Nuke
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 16.5 (Over) · avg 15.8 · hit 6/10 · tap a bar
16.5
Nearby lines
| 14.5 Over | 62.4% | |
| 15.5 Over | 59.8% | |
| 16.5 Over | 56.1% | OFFERED |
| 17.5 Over | 45.9% | below BE |
| 18.5 Over | 41.2% | below BE |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 16.5
Line movement
first 16.5→offno change
- Pulled16.5Oct 24, 09:55 PM
- Back on board16.5 → 16.5Oct 24, 09:54 PM
- Pulled16.5Oct 24, 09:54 PM
- First seen16.5Oct 24, 05:25 AM
Map stats
Mirage
7 maps
Kills
12.7
KPR
0.56
HS%
55.1%
K/D
0.82
Nuke
5 maps
Kills
18.2
KPR
0.94
HS%
50.5%
K/D
1.62
Cache
4 maps
Kills
18.5
KPR
0.72
HS%
55.4%
K/D
1.14
Inferno
4 maps
Kills
9.5
KPR
0.5
HS%
63.2%
K/D
0.75
Anubis
4 maps
Kills
17
KPR
0.76
HS%
55.9%
K/D
1.17
Dust2
4 maps
Kills
13.5
KPR
0.73
HS%
51.9%
K/D
1.29
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-23 | paiN | 9 Inferno 13-3 | 8 Anubis 14-16 | 17 | Split | Over ✓ | OTBO |
| 2026-10-22 | ShindeN | 11 Dust2 13-4 | 9 Mirage 16-14 | 20 | W | Over ✓ | OTBO |
| 2026-10-22 | BESTIA | 3 Dust2 7-13 | 5 Mirage 7-13 | 8 | L | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-10-22 | Turma do Pagode | 11 Anubis 13-10 | 12 Cache 16-14 | 23 | W | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-10-11 | DENDELE | 6 Mirage 8-13 | 11 Inferno 11-13 | 17 | L | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-10-11 | NRG | 2 Inferno 4-13 | 7 Dust2 13-7 | 9 | Split | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-10 | Without a Roof | 7 Dust2 13-4 | 5 Nuke 13-9 | 12 | W | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-27 | paiN | 8 Anubis 13-4 | 9 Cache 13-11 | 17 | W | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-26 | Bounty Hunters | 8 Mirage 13-9 | 13 Nuke 13-7 | 21 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-09-24 | Galorys | 12 Cache 16-12 | 2 Inferno 13-6 | 14 | W | Under ✗ | OT |
| 2026-09-23 | Juventus | 11 Anubis 13-6 | 8 Nuke 13-3 | 19 | W | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-19 | BESTIA | 7 Mirage 10-13 | 11 Nuke 13-2 | 18 | Split | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-17 | Bounty Hunters | 3 Mirage 13-6 | 8 Cache 8-13 | 11 | Split | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-09-06 | Bounty Hunters | 11 Mirage 13-10 | 9 Nuke 11-13 | 20 | Split | Over ✓ |









































































































































































