KillsLean
Line
31
Pick
OVER
Projection
34.36
Hit
61.6%
EV+
+6.6%
Edge
+3.4
L10
60%
HeadshotsLean
Line
16
Pick
OVER
Projection
18.37
Hit
62%
EV+
+7.4%
Edge
+2.4
L10
50%

Rifler
Plopski
Metizport vs BAKS
LEAN · OVER 16
PP16
▲ L5 19.6 · L20 17.9
Hit rates at 16 (Over)
L5
60%
3/5
L10
50%
5/10
L20
44%
8/18
H2H
N/A
Volatility
Low
±4.06
Previous meeting · vs BAKS
No meeting with BAKS in his last 18 series.
LAN vs online form
LAN
15.3
1/4 hit at 16
Online · this match
18.7
7/14 hit at 16
Avg headshots on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm Plopski is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 16.5
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 67.0%
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
prizepicks · Headshots · Maps 1-2Lean
What to watch · Needs 17+ HS (~32 kills at 53% HS): 0.665 KPR over ~45 rounds. Main danger: a fast 2-0 (73.5%) or blowout (14.9%) cuts rounds.
Side
Over
Projection
18.37
Raw edge
+2.4
Cons. hit
62%
EV+
+7.4%
Rating
5.5/10
Exp. rounds
45.4
Line
16
Verdict
Lean
Plain model
62%
+7.8 →
Learned
69.8%
what past results change
learning 1x
learning 1x
Same-line track record · Over 14-18
All players · Headshots
59%234 picks
This player
100%2 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 72% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±2 (pref ±2.5)
- L10 hit rate ≥ 60%: L10 50.0% at this line
- L20 hit rate ≥ 55%: L20 44.4% at this line
- Game script fits: 2-0 sweep 74% (Overs need rounds)
Sharp checks · 3/6
Big enough sample · 18 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60% · L10 50.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55% · L20 44.4% at this line
Game script fits · 2-0 sweep 74% (Overs need rounds)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
Projection = 70% model (17.84) + 30% last-5 average
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 18.1 headshots vs line 16.0 (5/10 over). KPR 0.74, HS 53%. Next: vs BAKS, Online.
Strongest: L10 average 18.1 against a 16.0 line
Biggest risk: High 2-0 sweep chance (74%) — fewer total rounds
- High 2-0 sweep chance (74%) — fewer total rounds
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
PARTIAL
The call
SMALL EDGE ONLY
Value
THIN
- • Model 18.37 vs line 16 → +2.37 (14.8%)
- • Form L5 60% · L10 50% over this line
- • Slight lean (40–45% / 65–70%) → no adjustment
- • Expected 45.4 rounds · 2-0 73.5% · OT 20.7%
Performance (last 36 maps)
Kills/Map
16.94
HS/Map
8.97
K/D
1.08
KPR
0.74
ADR
85.9
KAST
76.6%
HS%
53%
Multi-kill
18%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Nuke)9 · KPR 0.712 · 23.8r
Map 2 (Inferno)8.8 · KPR 0.765 · 21.6r
Required KPR to clear0.665
Base kills (Maps 1-2)33.47
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.+0.57%
Final projected kills33.66
× realistic HS% (53%)18.37
BAKS gives up (31 series)-0.1% vs norm
Likely HS totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Over 16. Model: 72% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps14.9%
~15 HS · 38r37.9%
Normal56%
~18 HS · 44r58.4%
Close maps8.4%
~20 HS · 49r75%
Overtime20.7%
~22 HS · 55r88%
Match context
Oct 25, 12:00 PMOnlineNODWIN Clutch Series 13
Win chance source: Polymarket 67.0%
Slight lean (40–45% / 65–70%) → no adjustment
Game scriptIdeal Over range — team 67% to win (40-70%), competitive maps expected.
M1 Nuke
23.8r
-4% KPR here
M2 Inferno
21.6r
+4% KPR here
Total
45.4r
2-0 sweep73.5%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)29.1%
Overtime20.7%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)14.9%
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Nuke / Inferno
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 16 (Over) · avg 18.1 · hit 5/10 · tap a bar
16
Nearby lines
| 14 Over | 66.6% | |
| 15 Over | 65.4% | |
| 16 Over | 62% | OFFERED |
| 17 Over | 58.5% | |
| 18 Over | 53.6% | below BE |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 16.5
Line movement
first 16→16no change
- First seen16Oct 24, 08:30 PM
Map stats
Nuke
14 maps
Kills
17.1
KPR
0.71
HS%
52.5%
K/D
1
Inferno
7 maps
Kills
16.9
KPR
0.78
HS%
54.2%
K/D
1.15
Cache
5 maps
Kills
18.4
KPR
0.79
HS%
46.7%
K/D
1.39
Mirage
5 maps
Kills
16.4
KPR
0.67
HS%
52.4%
K/D
0.91
Anubis
3 maps
Kills
15
KPR
0.7
HS%
60%
K/D
1.32
Ancient
2 maps
Kills
16.5
KPR
0.72
HS%
60.6%
K/D
0.97
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-22 | Sangal | 12 Cache 16-14 | 14 Nuke 17-19 | 26 | Split | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-10-21 | GenOne | 9 Cache 13-3 | 11 Nuke 13-2 | 20 | W | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-20 | ex-RUSTEC | 10 Anubis 13-7 | 13 Nuke 13-9 | 23 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-10-07 | K27 | 9 Nuke 13-11 | 7 Mirage 8-13 | 16 | Split | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-09-27 | Inner Circle Academy | 7 Anubis 13-9 | 6 Nuke 13-9 | 13 | W | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-09-26 | aimclub | 12 Mirage 13-6 | 8 Inferno 7-13 | 20 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-09-25 | HAVU | 5 Nuke 8-13 | 8 Inferno 13-6 | 13 | Split | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-09-25 | Optibet | 8 Ancient 9-13 | 7 Nuke 13-8 | 15 | Split | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-09-14 | Nemiga | 8 Mirage 14-16 | 8 Nuke 8-13 | 16 | L | Under ✗ | OT |
| 2026-09-13 | ex-Zero Tenacity | 8 Cache 13-6 | 11 Nuke 14-16 | 19 | Split | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-09-11 | Lavked | 17 Inferno 13-11 | 7 Mirage 16-14 | 24 | W | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-09-05 | 9INE | 15 Nuke 25-23 | 12 Ancient 13-11 | 27 | W | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-09-04 | Sashi | 12 Inferno 16-13 | 4 Cache 16-13 | 16 | W | Under ✗ | OT |
| 2026-09-02 | Walczaki | 4 Inferno 13-6 | 10 Anubis 13-9 | 14 | W | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-09-01 | PCIFIC | 9 Inferno 8-13 | 4 Nuke 13-9 | 13 | Split | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-08-31 | ASTRAL | 10 Cache 9-13 | 9 Nuke 13-8 | 19 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-08-31 | PCIFIC | 8 Nuke 13-7 | 6 Inferno 13-7 | 14 | W | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-08-28 | Bushido Wildcats | 9 Mirage 9-13 | 6 Nuke 4-13 | 15 | L | Under ✗ | BO |








































































































































































