KillsRisk
Line
26.5
Pick
UNDER
Projection
25.79
Hit
49.5%
EV+
-14.2%
Edge
-0.7
L10
50%
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Rifler
Girafffe
The Last Resort vs G2 Ares
RISK · UNDER 26.5
≈ L5 26.8 · L20 27.8Risk · Recent form (L5/L10) leans the other way +1LAN UNDER · 35% hit
Hit rates at 26.5 (Under)
L5
60%
3/5
L10
50%
5/10
L20
40%
8/20
H2H
0%
0/3
Volatility
Low
±4.52
Previous meeting · vs G2 Ares
0/3 hit · avg 31.7 kills on Maps 1-2
2026-10-14 · CCT Europe 2026 Series 11
Ancient 13-10 · Inferno 8-13 · Split
29
Over 26.5 ✗
2026-09-25 · Hotspawn 10k Showdown: Closed Qualifier
Inferno 11-13 · Cache 8-13 · L
29
Over 26.5 ✗
2026-09-04 · CCT Europe 2026 Series 8
Inferno 13-9 · Cache 19-17 · W
37
Over 26.5 ✗
LAN vs online form
LAN · this match
29
0/2 hit at 26.5
Online
27.7
8/18 hit at 26.5
Avg kills on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Veto confirmed — re-check map order
- Confirm Girafffe is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 26.5
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Bookmaker odds via bo3.gg
underdog · Kills · Maps 1-2Risk
What to watch · Stays under with 26 kills or fewer: below 0.64 KPR over ~41 rounds. Main danger: overtime (16.7%) or long close maps add rounds.
Side
Under
Projection
25.79
Raw edge
-0.7
Cons. hit
49.5%
EV+
-14.2%
Rating
1.1/10
Exp. rounds
41.4
Line
26.5
Verdict
Risk
Plain model
49.5%
-8.6 →
Learned
40.9%
what past results change
learning 1x
learning 1x
Same-line track record · Under 24.5-28.5
All players · Kills
44%273 picks
This player
100%1 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 56.2% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±3 (pref ±4)
- Edge -0.7 below ±3.0 minimum
- Recent form (L5/L10) does not lean the same way
- EV+ not positive at current payout
- L10 hit rate ≥ 60%: L10 50.0% at this line
- L20 hit rate ≥ 55%: L20 40.0% at this line
Sharp checks · 4/6
Big enough sample · 20 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60% · L10 50.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55% · L20 40.0% at this line
Game script fits · OT chance 17% (Unders hate OT)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
Projection = 70% model (25.36) + 30% last-5 average
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 27.5 kills vs line 26.5 (5/10 over). KPR 0.65, HS 49%. Next: vs G2 Ares, LAN.
Strongest: L10 average 27.5 against a 26.5 line
Biggest risk: Normal CS2 variance
The read
Signal
MIXED
The call
PASS
Value
NO VALUE
- • Model 25.79 vs line 26.5 → -0.71 (-2.7%)
- • Form L5 60% · L10 50% under this line
- • Underdog (≤40%) → fewer rounds (−1/map) and fewer kills (−6% KPR)
- • Expected 41.4 rounds · 2-0 56.5% · OT 16.7%
Performance (last 40 maps)
Kills/Map
13.9
HS/Map
6.85
K/D
0.94
KPR
0.65
ADR
70.5
KAST
70.2%
HS%
49.3%
Multi-kill
16.5%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Inferno)12 · KPR 0.573 · 21r
Map 2 (Anubis)13.4 · KPR 0.657 · 20.4r
Required KPR to clear0.64
Base kills (Maps 1-2)25.45
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.-0.34%
Final projected kills25.36
G2 Ares gives up (69 series)+9.5% vs norm
Likely kills totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Under 26.5. Model: 56.2% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps27.7%
~22 kills · 35r84.5%
Normal49.8%
~26 kills · 42r55.1%
Close maps5.8%
~28 kills · 44r43.2%
Overtime16.7%
~31 kills · 50r20.2%
Match context
Oct 24, 12:00 PMLANHotspawn 10k Showdown
Win chance source: Bookmaker odds via bo3.gg
Underdog (≤40%) → fewer rounds (−1/map) and fewer kills (−6% KPR)
Game scriptIdeal Under range — team 24% to win; the lower the %, the fewer rounds he wins and kills he gets.
M1 Inferno
21r
-6% KPR here
M2 Anubis
20.4r
+8% KPR here
Total
41.4r
2-0 sweep56.5%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)22.5%
Overtime16.7%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)27.7%
Veto confirmed (bo3.gg): Inferno / Anubis
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 26.5 (Under) · avg 27.5 · hit 5/10 · tap a bar
26.5
Nearby lines
| 24.5 Under | 37.1% | below BE |
| 25.5 Under | 44.3% | below BE |
| 26.5 Under | 49.5% | OFFERED |
| 27.5 Under | 54.5% | below BE |
| 28.5 Under | 58.6% |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 26.5
Line movement
first 26.5→offno change
- Pulled26.5Oct 24, 12:12 PM
- First seen26.5Oct 23, 11:11 PM
Map stats
Ancient
10 maps
Kills
15.3
KPR
0.69
HS%
46.4%
K/D
1.12
Inferno
8 maps
Kills
13.2
KPR
0.6
HS%
52.8%
K/D
0.88
Cache
6 maps
Kills
13.3
KPR
0.54
HS%
41.2%
K/D
0.77
Nuke
6 maps
Kills
16
KPR
0.64
HS%
54.2%
K/D
1
Dust2
5 maps
Kills
9.4
KPR
0.57
HS%
48.9%
K/D
0.85
Anubis
3 maps
Kills
16
KPR
0.75
HS%
54.2%
K/D
1.02
Mirage
2 maps
Kills
13
KPR
0.65
HS%
50%
K/D
0.81
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-21 | Aces | 15 Mirage 9-13 | 9 Cache 9-13 | 24 | L | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-10-19 | Sökerorg | 5 Ancient 13-4 | 18 Nuke 13-8 | 23 | W | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-15 | Spirit Academy | 12 Ancient 7-13 | 11 Anubis 6-13 | 23 | L | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-10-14 | G2 Ares | 17 Ancient 13-10 | 12 Inferno 8-13 | 29 | Split | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-10-08 | Privateer | 23 Ancient 13-8 | 12 Cache 8-13 | 35 | Split | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-10-07 | Saint Sinners | 11 Mirage 5-13 | 14 Inferno 13-6 | 25 | Split | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-07 | Privateer | 10 Ancient 13-11 | 12 Nuke 13-8 | 22 | W | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-09-26 | Famalicão | 17 Inferno 10-13 | 14 Ancient 7-13 | 31 | L | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-09-25 | G2 Ares | 15 Inferno 11-13 | 14 Cache 8-13 | 29 | L | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-09-24 | Nexus | 9 Cache 5-13 | 25 Ancient 16-14 | 34 | Split | Over ✗ | OTBO |
| 2026-09-19 | Ryvex | 11 Inferno 8-13 | 20 Dust2 13-3 | 31 | Split | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-11 | SINNERS | 2 Dust2 2-13 | 6 Inferno 6-13 | 8 | L | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-09 | INOX Division | 15 Cache 16-14 | 15 Inferno 16-13 | 30 | W | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-09-07 | MOUZ NXT | 19 Anubis 13-11 | 19 Ancient 13-6 | 38 | W | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-09-04 | G2 Ares | 16 Inferno 13-9 | 21 Cache 19-17 | 37 | W | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-09-03 | Leo | 9 Nuke 5-13 | 7 Ancient 6-13 | 16 | L | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-08-20 | Privateer | 15 Nuke 16-14 | 12 Dust2 13-9 | 27 | W | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-08-19 | OG | 16 Nuke 10-13 | 7 Dust2 2-13 | 23 | L | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-08-18 | Color | 21 Ancient 13-16 | 6 Dust2 2-13 | 27 | L | Over ✗ | OTBO |
| 2026-08-18 | Strael Bora | 18 Anubis 13-8 | 26 Nuke 19-17 | 44 | W | Over ✗ | OT |








































































































































































