KillsBetter playRisk
Line
30
Pick
UNDER
Projection
27.9
Hit
53.3%
EV+
-7.7%
Edge
-2.1
L10
70%
HeadshotsLean
Line
16
Pick
UNDER
Projection
14.48
Hit
51.5%
EV+
-10.8%
Edge
-1.5
L10
60%

Rifler
gbb
Galorys vs paiN
LEAN · UNDER 16
▼ L5 10.6 · L20 16.8LAN UNDER · 35% hit
Hit rates at 16 (Under)
L5
100%
5/5
L10
60%
6/10
L20
45%
9/20
H2H
0%
0/1
Volatility
High
±5.8
Previous meeting · vs paiN
0/1 hit · avg 19 headshots on Maps 1-2
2026-09-26 · FERJEE In House Season 2
Cache 9-13 · Dust2 5-13 · L
19
Over 16 ✗
LAN vs online form
LAN · this match
12.2
4/6 hit at 16
Online
18.7
5/14 hit at 16
Avg headshots on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm gbb is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 16
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 41.0%
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
prizepicks · Headshots · Maps 1-2Lean
What to watch · Stays under with 15 HS or fewer (under ~30 kills at 53.8% HS): below 0.655 KPR over ~45 rounds. Main danger: overtime (10%) or long close maps add rounds.
Side
Under
Projection
14.48
Raw edge
-1.5
Cons. hit
51.5%
EV+
-10.8%
Rating
2.4/10
Exp. rounds
45.4
Line
16
Verdict
Lean
Plain model
51.5%
-5.3 →
Learned
46.2%
what past results change
learning 1x
learning 1x
Same-line track record · Under 14-18
All players · Headshots
41%234 picks
This player
66.7%3 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 60.4% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±2 (pref ±2.5)
- Edge -1.5 below ±2.0 minimum
- EV+ not positive at current payout
- High form volatility
- L20 hit rate ≥ 55%: L20 45.0% at this line
Sharp checks · 5/6
Big enough sample · 20 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60% · L10 60.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55% · L20 45.0% at this line
Game script fits · OT chance 10% (Unders hate OT)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
Projection = 70% model (16.14) + 30% last-5 average
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 15.0 headshots vs line 16.0 (4/10 over). KPR 0.65, HS 54%. Next: vs paiN, LAN.
Strongest: L10 average 15.0 against a 16.0 line
Biggest risk: Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
PARTIAL
The call
PASS
Value
NO VALUE
- • Model 14.48 vs line 16 → -1.52 (-9.5%)
- • Form L5 100% · L10 60% under this line
- • Slight lean (40–45% / 65–70%) → no adjustment
- • Expected 45.4 rounds · 2-0 53% · OT 10%
Performance (last 40 maps)
Kills/Map
15.57
HS/Map
8.38
K/D
1.11
KPR
0.65
ADR
75.7
KAST
75.2%
HS%
53.8%
Multi-kill
14.9%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Ancient)9.7 · KPR 0.802 · 22.7r
Map 2 (Inferno)6.4 · KPR 0.526 · 22.7r
Required KPR to clear0.655
Base kills (Maps 1-2)30.15
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.-0.51%
Final projected kills29.99
× realistic HS% (53.8%)14.48
paiN gives up (81 series)-2.8% vs norm
Likely HS totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Under 16. Model: 60.4% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps22.7%
~12 HS · 38r76.3%
Normal50.6%
~15 HS · 46r60.1%
Close maps16.7%
~16 HS · 49r53.9%
Overtime10%
~17 HS · 55r41%
Match context
Oct 24, 06:00 PMLANCircuit X Curitiba 4
Win chance source: Polymarket 41.0%
Slight lean (40–45% / 65–70%) → no adjustment
Game scriptNeutral for Under — team 41% to win (ideal is 40% or lower).
M1 Ancient
22.7r
+24% KPR here
M2 Inferno
22.7r
-19% KPR here
Total
45.4r
2-0 sweep53%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)26.7%
Overtime10%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)22.7%
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Ancient / Inferno
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 16 (Under) · avg 15.0 · hit 6/10 · tap a bar
16
Nearby lines
| 14 Under | 41.3% | below BE |
| 15 Under | 45.5% | below BE |
| 16 Under | 51.5% | OFFERED |
| 17 Under | 55.2% | below BE |
| 18 Under | 59.8% |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 16
Line movement
first 16→offno change
- Pulled16Oct 24, 06:00 PM
- Back on board16 → 16Oct 24, 05:12 AM
- Pulled16Oct 24, 05:11 AM
- First seen16Oct 24, 05:11 AM
Map stats
Ancient
16 maps
Kills
19
KPR
0.83
HS%
52.3%
K/D
1.37
Inferno
9 maps
Kills
11.2
KPR
0.49
HS%
57.4%
K/D
0.69
Anubis
5 maps
Kills
12.4
KPR
0.62
HS%
51.6%
K/D
1.02
Dust2
5 maps
Kills
15.4
KPR
0.81
HS%
53.2%
K/D
1.28
Cache
3 maps
Kills
15
KPR
0.74
HS%
53.3%
K/D
1.18
Nuke
2 maps
Kills
17
KPR
0.72
HS%
61.8%
K/D
1
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-23 | BESTIA | 3 Ancient 9-13 | 4 Inferno 11-13 | 7 | L | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-10-21 | Fluxo | 4 Anubis 13-9 | 5 Inferno 9-13 | 9 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-10-21 | BARCA | 6 Inferno 6-13 | 6 Ancient 13-6 | 12 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-10-21 | Fluxo | 3 Anubis 8-13 | 7 Inferno 16-14 | 10 | Split | Under ✓ | OT |
| 2026-10-14 | LP | 7 Inferno 5-13 | 8 Ancient 13-3 | 15 | Split | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-13 | ex-Keyd Stars | 8 Dust2 13-6 | 19 Ancient 16-14 | 27 | W | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-10-12 | Bounty Hunters | 11 Cache 13-6 | 9 Ancient 9-13 | 20 | Split | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-10-11 | Yawara | 5 Anubis 13-4 | 12 Ancient 13-2 | 17 | W | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-10 | MEIA NOITE | 4 Dust2 8-13 | 9 Ancient 13-6 | 13 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-10-09 | Turma do Pagode | 7 Ancient 13-10 | 13 Nuke 13-11 | 20 | W | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-10-07 | Grêmio | 6 Inferno 11-13 | 14 Ancient 25-28 | 20 | L | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-10-04 | Turma do Pagode | 14 Anubis 13-4 | 8 Nuke 10-13 | 22 | Split | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-04 | Procyon | 8 Inferno 13-4 | 5 Ancient 13-6 | 13 | W | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-03 | BESTIA Academy | 11 Dust2 13-6 | 11 Ancient 13-7 | 22 | W | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-10-02 | Grêmio | 13 Inferno 19-16 | 11 Ancient 13-9 | 24 | W | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-09-28 | Turma do Pagode | 6 Anubis 10-13 | 6 Ancient 7-13 | 12 | L | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-09-27 | Procyon | 2 Inferno 6-13 | 11 Ancient 13-9 | 13 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-09-27 | Bounty Hunters | 5 Cache 7-13 | 11 Ancient 13-8 | 16 | Split | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-09-26 | paiN | 8 Cache 9-13 | 11 Dust2 5-13 | 19 | L | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-25 | METANOIA Wolves | 7 Dust2 13-5 | 17 Ancient 13-10 | 24 | W | Over ✗ | BO |








































































































































































