HeadshotsRisk
Line
9.5
Pick
OVER
Projection
9.8
Hit
51.9%
EV+
-10.0%
Edge
+0.3
L10
70%
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AWPer
MITHPUTTINI
Grêmio vs Yawara Esports
RISK · OVER 9.5
▲ L5 11.4 · L20 10.4Risk · Edge +0.3 far below ±2.0 +1
Hit rates at 9.5 (Over)
L5
80%
4/5
L10
70%
7/10
L20
60%
9/15
H2H
100%
2/2
Volatility
Low
±2.72
Previous meeting · vs Yawara Esports
2/2 hit · avg 10 headshots on Maps 1-2
2026-10-08 · ESL Challenger League Season 52: South America - Cup 3
Nuke 16-19 · Mirage 10-13 · L
10
Over 9.5 ✓
2026-09-25 · ESL Challenger League Season 52: South America - Cup 2
Nuke 9-13 · Mirage 13-11 · Split
10
Over 9.5 ✓
LAN vs online form
LAN
—
no series
Online · this match
10.4
9/15 hit at 9.5
Avg headshots on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm MITHPUTTINI is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 9.5
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 31.5%
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
underdog · Headshots · Maps 1-2Risk
What to watch · Needs 10+ HS (~30 kills at 33.2% HS): 0.63 KPR over ~45 rounds. His Kills line is 26.5: backing Kills Over needs ~3 fewer kills, usually the easier play. Main danger: a fast 2-0 (75%) or blowout (25.6%) cuts rounds.
Side
Over
Projection
9.8
Raw edge
+0.3
Cons. hit
51.9%
EV+
-10.0%
Rating
1.9/10
Exp. rounds
45.4
Line
9.5
Verdict
Risk
Plain model
51.9%
-8.7 →
Learned
43.2%
what past results change
learning 1x
learning 1x
Same-line track record · Over 7.5-11.5
All players · Headshots
55.6%72 picks
This player
0%1 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 54.4% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±2 (pref ±2.5)
- Edge +0.3 below ±2.0 minimum
- EV+ not positive at current payout
- Game script fits: 2-0 sweep 75% (Overs need rounds)
- Blowout loss risk — team only 32% to win. Big underdogs often lose maps 13-3 and the Over dies (e.g. Temny Prince: 9 kills in a 3-13 map 1). Over is penalised and can't be a Take.
Sharp checks · 5/6
Big enough sample · 15 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60% · L10 70.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55% · L20 60.0% at this line
Game script fits · 2-0 sweep 75% (Overs need rounds)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
Projection = 70% model (9.12) + 30% last-5 average
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 10.7 headshots vs line 9.5 (7/10 over). KPR 0.66, HS 33%. Next: vs Yawara, Online.
Strongest: L10 average 10.7 against a 9.5 line
Biggest risk: High 2-0 sweep chance (75%) — fewer total rounds
- High 2-0 sweep chance (75%) — fewer total rounds
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
PARTIAL
The call
PASS
Value
NO VALUE
- • Model 9.8 vs line 9.5 → +0.3 (3.2%)
- • Form L5 80% · L10 70% over this line
- • Underdog (≤40%) → fewer rounds (−1/map) and fewer kills (−6% KPR)
- • Expected 45.4 rounds · 2-0 75% · OT 12.9%
Performance (last 30 maps)
Kills/Map
15.67
HS/Map
5.2
K/D
1.11
KPR
0.66
ADR
66.7
KAST
70.5%
HS%
33.2%
Multi-kill
15.8%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Inferno)4.5 · KPR 0.633 · 21.5r
Map 2 (Ancient)4.7 · KPR 0.593 · 23.9r
Required KPR to clear0.63
Base kills (Maps 1-2)27.78
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.-1.11%
Final projected kills27.47
× realistic HS% (33.2%)9.8
Yawara Esports gives up (52 series)+5.7% vs norm
Likely HS totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Over 9.5. Model: 54.4% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps25.6%
~8 HS · 38r31.5%
Normal35.5%
~10 HS · 45r50.3%
Close maps26%
~11 HS · 49r59.7%
Overtime12.9%
~12 HS · 55r73.2%
Match context
Oct 24, 10:00 PMOnline CCT South America 2026 Series 7
Win chance source: Polymarket 31.5%
Underdog (≤40%) → fewer rounds (−1/map) and fewer kills (−6% KPR)
⚠ Blowout riskBlowout loss risk — team only 32% to win. Big underdogs often lose maps 13-3 and the Over dies (e.g. Temny Prince: 9 kills in a 3-13 map 1). Over is penalised and can't be a Take.
M1 Inferno
21.5r
+2% KPR here
M2 Ancient
23.9r
-4% KPR here
Total
45.4r
2-0 sweep75%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)38.9%
Overtime12.9%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)25.6%
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Inferno / Ancient
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 9.5 (Over) · avg 10.7 · hit 7/10 · tap a bar
9.5
Nearby lines
| 7.5 Over | 64.7% | |
| 8.5 Over | 60.4% | |
| 9.5 Over | 51.9% | OFFERED |
| 10.5 Over | 37.8% | below BE |
| 11.5 Over | 30.2% | below BE |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 9.5
Line movement
first 9.5→offno change
- Pulled9.5Oct 24, 10:00 PM
- Back on board9.5 → 9.5Oct 24, 12:53 PM
- Pulled9.5Oct 24, 12:53 PM
- First seen9.5Oct 24, 12:52 PM
Map stats
Inferno
9 maps
Kills
15.4
KPR
0.68
HS%
35.3%
K/D
1.34
Ancient
6 maps
Kills
16.5
KPR
0.62
HS%
24.2%
K/D
1.05
Mirage
5 maps
Kills
14.8
KPR
0.72
HS%
39.2%
K/D
1.17
Nuke
5 maps
Kills
12.8
KPR
0.54
HS%
32.8%
K/D
0.81
Cache
4 maps
Kills
17.8
KPR
0.72
HS%
33.8%
K/D
1.13
Dust2
1 maps
Kills
23
KPR
0.96
HS%
39.1%
K/D
1.21
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-22 | Low Cortisol BR | 4 Mirage 13-3 | 4 Cache 10-13 | 8 | Split | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-20 | JOGA DE TERNO | 9 Inferno 13-5 | 4 Ancient 13-11 | 13 | W | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-13 | Los Niños | 5 Mirage 9-13 | 5 Inferno 13-5 | 10 | Split | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-09 | BORRACHEIROS | 4 Inferno 10-13 | 12 Mirage 5-13 | 16 | L | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-08 | Yawara | 8 Nuke 16-19 | 2 Mirage 10-13 | 10 | L | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-10-07 | Galorys | 4 Inferno 13-11 | 8 Ancient 28-25 | 12 | W | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-10-02 | Galorys | 2 Inferno 16-19 | 4 Ancient 9-13 | 6 | L | Under ✗ | OT |
| 2026-09-30 | QUINTESSÊNCIA | 3 Inferno 13-7 | 6 Cache 17-19 | 9 | Split | Under ✗ | OT |
| 2026-09-29 | Procyon | 10 Inferno 10-13 | 3 Nuke 3-13 | 13 | L | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-25 | Yawara | 4 Nuke 9-13 | 6 Mirage 13-11 | 10 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-09-24 | your end | 5 Cache 13-7 | 2 Ancient 13-1 | 7 | W | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-23 | Isurus | 7 Inferno 13-7 | 9 Cache 7-13 | 16 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-09-23 | ALKA | 4 Nuke 13-11 | 1 Ancient 10-13 | 5 | Split | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-09-22 | Keyd Stars | 5 Inferno 11-13 | 9 Dust2 11-13 | 14 | L | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-09-02 | MEIA NOITE | 2 Nuke 9-13 | 5 Ancient 13-11 | 7 | Split | Under ✗ |








































































































































































