KillsTake
Line
29.5
Pick
UNDER
Projection
23
Hit
64%
EV+
+10.9%
Edge
-6.5
L10
70%
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Rifler
JOTA
MEIA NOITE vs Tropa do KinGui
TAKE · UNDER 29.5
▲ L5 26.2 · L20 25.1
Hit rates at 29.5 (Under)
L5
80%
4/5
L10
70%
7/10
L20
71%
10/14
H2H
N/A
Volatility
Low
±6.07
Previous meeting · vs Tropa do KinGui
No meeting with Tropa do KinGui in his last 14 series.
LAN vs online form
LAN
24.2
7/10 hit at 29.5
Online · this match
27.3
3/4 hit at 29.5
Avg kills on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm JOTA is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 26.5
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 35.0%
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
underdog · Kills · Maps 1-2Take
What to watch · Stays under with 29 kills or fewer: below 0.772 KPR over ~38 rounds. Main danger: overtime (7.6%) or long close maps add rounds.
Side
Under
Projection
23
Raw edge
-6.5
Cons. hit
64%
EV+
+10.9%
Rating
9.5/10
Exp. rounds
38.2
Line
29.5
Verdict
Take
Plain model
64%
-8.4 →
Learned
55.6%
what past results change
learning 1x
learning 1x
Same-line track record · Under 27.5-31.5
All players · Kills
44%332 picks
This player
—0 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 85.8% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±3 (pref ±4)
Clears edge, form, EV+, volatility and every sharp check
Sharp checks · 6/6
Big enough sample · 14 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60% · L10 70.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55% · L20 71.4% at this line
Game script fits · OT chance 8% (Unders hate OT)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
Projection = 70% model (21.63) + 30% last-5 average
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 25.6 kills vs line 29.5 (3/10 over). KPR 0.63, HS 55%. Next: vs Tropa do KinGui, LAN/Online unknown.
Strongest: L10 average 25.6 against a 29.5 line
Biggest risk: Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
ALIGNED
The call
TAKE UNDER
Value
VALUE
- • Model 23 vs line 29.5 → -6.5 (-22.0%)
- • Form L5 80% · L10 70% under this line
- • Underdog (≤40%) → fewer rounds (−1/map) and fewer kills (−6% KPR)
- • Expected 38.2 rounds · 2-0 47% · OT 7.6%
Performance (last 28 maps)
Kills/Map
12.54
HS/Map
6.86
K/D
0.88
KPR
0.63
ADR
78.1
KAST
72.1%
HS%
54.7%
Multi-kill
14.7%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Dust2)10.3 · KPR 0.544 · 19r
Map 2 (Inferno)11.4 · KPR 0.597 · 19.2r
Required KPR to clear0.772
Base kills (Maps 1-2)21.8
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.-0.81%
Final projected kills21.63
Likely kills totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Under 29.5. Model: 85.8% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps25.7%
~19 kills · 32r97%
Normal55.4%
~24 kills · 39r85%
Close maps11.3%
~25 kills · 41r80.7%
Overtime7.6%
~28 kills · 47r59.9%
Match context
Oct 24, 04:00 PMOnline
Win chance source: Polymarket 35.0%
Underdog (≤40%) → fewer rounds (−1/map) and fewer kills (−6% KPR)
Game scriptIdeal Under range — team 35% to win; the lower the %, the fewer rounds he wins and kills he gets.
M1 Dust2
19r
-8% KPR here
M2 Inferno
19.2r
+1% KPR here
Total
38.2r
2-0 sweep47%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)18.9%
Overtime7.6%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)25.7%
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Dust2 / Inferno
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 29.5 (Under) · avg 25.6 · hit 7/10 · tap a bar
29.5
Nearby lines
| 27.5 Under | 60.5% | |
| 28.5 Under | 63.1% | |
| 29.5 Under | 64% | OFFERED |
| 30.5 Under | 64.7% | |
| 31.5 Under | 66.1% |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 26.5
Line movement
first 29.5→offno change
- Pulled29.5Oct 24, 04:12 PM
- Back on board29.5 → 29.5Oct 24, 12:53 PM
- Pulled29.5Oct 24, 12:53 PM
- First seen29.5Oct 24, 12:52 PM
Map stats
Dust2
10 maps
Kills
11
KPR
0.56
HS%
65.5%
K/D
0.83
Inferno
5 maps
Kills
12.4
KPR
0.64
HS%
56.5%
K/D
0.94
Ancient
5 maps
Kills
13
KPR
0.59
HS%
36.9%
K/D
0.81
Nuke
4 maps
Kills
14
KPR
0.7
HS%
53.6%
K/D
0.97
Mirage
2 maps
Kills
10
KPR
0.54
HS%
60%
K/D
0.71
Overpass
2 maps
Kills
19
KPR
0.68
HS%
50%
K/D
1.12
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-22 | MEIA NOITE | 8 Inferno 2-13 | 15 Dust2 13-9 | 23 | Split | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-10 | MEIA NOITE | 16 Dust2 13-8 | 12 Ancient 6-13 | 28 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-10-09 | ALKA | 12 Ancient 13-6 | 15 Dust2 13-8 | 27 | W | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-10-08 | MEIA NOITE | 14 Inferno 10-13 | 17 Ancient 13-10 | 31 | Split | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-06-03 | Gaimin Gladiators | 9 Dust2 5-13 | 13 Inferno 6-13 | 22 | L | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-05-22 | Inner Circle | 13 Mirage 5-13 | 22 Overpass 15-19 | 35 | L | Over ✗ | OTBO |
| 2026-05-22 | Gaimin Gladiators | 7 Mirage 6-13 | 16 Overpass 9-13 | 23 | L | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-04-05 | Gaimin Gladiators | 17 Nuke 13-9 | 14 Dust2 13-3 | 31 | W | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-03-30 | paiN | 10 Dust2 13-7 | 14 Nuke 6-13 | 24 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-03-30 | Legacy | 3 Dust2 4-13 | 9 Ancient 8-13 | 12 | L | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-03-29 | Gaimin Gladiators | 10 Inferno 13-6 | 7 Dust2 13-1 | 17 | W | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-03-26 | MIBR | 15 Ancient 12-16 | 17 Inferno 13-8 | 32 | Split | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-03-26 | Gaimin Gladiators | 15 Nuke 6-13 | 10 Dust2 13-11 | 25 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-03-14 | Gaimin Gladiators | 11 Dust2 9-13 | 10 Nuke 7-13 | 21 | L | Under ✓ |









































































































































































