KillsRisk
Line
30
Pick
UNDER
Projection
31.17
Hit
36%
EV+
-37.7%
Edge
+1.2
L10
50%
HeadshotsBetter playRisk
Line
18.5
Pick
UNDER
Projection
18.22
Hit
48.8%
EV+
-15.4%
Edge
-0.3
L10
80%
#197Ranked 197 of 277 on the board

Rifler
YEKINDAR
FURIA vs Natus Vincere
RISK · UNDER 18.5
BEST UNDER · PP 18.5PP18.5UD17.5SL17.5
▼ L5 16.6 · L20 18.1Risk · Edge -0.3 far below ±2.0LAN UNDER · 35% hit
Hit rates at 18.5 (Under)
L5
100%
5/5
L10
80%
8/10
L20
65%
13/20
H2H
N/A
Volatility
Low
±3.86
Previous meeting · vs Natus Vincere
No meeting with Natus Vincere in his last 20 series.
LAN vs online form
LAN · this match
18.1
13/20 hit at 18.5
Online
—
no series
Avg headshots on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm YEKINDAR is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 18.5
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 56.5%
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
prizepicks · Headshots · Maps 1-2Risk
What to watch · Stays under with 18 HS or fewer (under ~32 kills at 59.9% HS): below 0.657 KPR over ~47 rounds. Main danger: overtime (10%) or long close maps add rounds.
Side
Under
Projection
18.22
Raw edge
-0.3
Cons. hit
48.8%
EV+
-15.4%
Rating
1.4/10
Exp. rounds
47
Line
18.5
Verdict
Risk
Plain model
48.8%
+4.8 →
Learned
53.6%
what past results change
learning 1x
learning 1x
Same-line track record · Under 16.5-20.5
All players · Headshots
43.2%146 picks
This player
100%1 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 52.9% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±2 (pref ±2.5)
- Edge -0.3 below ±2.0 minimum
- EV+ not positive at current payout
- Under risk — team 56% to win; favourites win more rounds and their players usually get more kills.
Sharp checks · 6/6
Big enough sample · 20 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60% · L10 80.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55% · L20 65.0% at this line
Game script fits · OT chance 10% (Unders hate OT)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
Projection = 70% model (18.92) + 30% last-5 average
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 16.1 headshots vs line 18.5 (2/10 over). KPR 0.65, HS 60%. Next: vs Natus Vincere, LAN.
Strongest: L10 average 16.1 against a 18.5 line
Biggest risk: Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
ALIGNED
The call
PASS
Value
NO VALUE
- • Model 18.22 vs line 18.5 → -0.28 (-1.5%)
- • Form L5 100% · L10 80% under this line
- • Close match (45–65%) → longer maps: +1 round per map
- • Expected 47 rounds · 2-0 52.5% · OT 10%
Performance (last 40 maps)
Kills/Map
15.15
HS/Map
9.07
K/D
1
KPR
0.65
ADR
75.4
KAST
71.6%
HS%
59.9%
Multi-kill
15.3%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Mirage)9.2 · KPR 0.673 · 22.9r
Map 2 (Ancient)9.7 · KPR 0.679 · 24.1r
Required KPR to clear0.657
Base kills (Maps 1-2)31.78
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.-0.61%
Final projected kills31.58
× realistic HS% (59.9%)18.22
Natus Vincere gives up (51 series)-2.8% vs norm
Likely HS totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Under 18.5. Model: 52.9% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps24.2%
~15 HS · 40r79.2%
Normal45%
~18 HS · 48r52.6%
Close maps20.8%
~20 HS · 50r42.8%
Overtime10%
~22 HS · 56r25%
Match context
Oct 25, 05:00 PMLANPGL Masters Bucharest 2026
Win chance source: Polymarket 56.5%
Close match (45–65%) → longer maps: +1 round per map
Heads upUnder risk — team 56% to win; favourites win more rounds and their players usually get more kills.
M1 Mirage
22.9r
+4% KPR here
M2 Ancient
24.1r
+5% KPR here
Total
47r
2-0 sweep52.5%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)30.8%
Overtime10%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)24.2%
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Mirage / Ancient
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 18.5 (Under) · avg 16.1 · hit 8/10 · tap a bar
18.5
Nearby lines
| 16.5 Under | 26.8% | below BE |
| 17.5 Under | 36.6% | below BE |
| 18.5 Under | 48.8% | OFFERED |
| 19.5 Under | 56.6% | below BE |
| 20.5 Under | 60.8% |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 18.5
Line movement
first 18.5→18.5no change
- First seen18.5Oct 25, 12:00 AM
Map stats
Mirage
10 maps
Kills
15
KPR
0.68
HS%
66%
K/D
0.97
Inferno
7 maps
Kills
14.3
KPR
0.68
HS%
50%
K/D
1.12
Ancient
7 maps
Kills
16.4
KPR
0.69
HS%
60.9%
K/D
0.93
Cache
6 maps
Kills
15.5
KPR
0.7
HS%
59.1%
K/D
0.97
Dust2
5 maps
Kills
14.2
KPR
0.75
HS%
60.6%
K/D
1.15
Nuke
4 maps
Kills
16.8
KPR
0.77
HS%
59.7%
K/D
1.14
Anubis
1 maps
Kills
10
KPR
0.48
HS%
60%
K/D
0.56
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-24 | DENDELE | 11 Ancient 13-8 | 7 Inferno 13-11 | 18 | W | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-10-18 | BetBoom | 5 Dust2 13-6 | 13 Ancient 16-19 | 18 | Split | Under ✓ | OT |
| 2026-10-17 | Aurora | 12 Dust2 13-8 | 5 Inferno 13-10 | 17 | W | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-10-15 | Legacy | 9 Cache 10-13 | 9 Inferno 13-5 | 18 | Split | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-14 | BetBoom | 6 Ancient 13-10 | 6 Mirage 13-9 | 12 | W | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-10-09 | MOUZ | 15 Nuke 11-13 | 6 Inferno 6-13 | 21 | L | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-10-07 | 9z | 8 Nuke 13-7 | 6 Inferno 13-3 | 14 | W | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-06 | Aurora | 9 Dust2 13-8 | 8 Mirage 9-13 | 17 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-10-05 | PARIVISION | 14 Ancient 7-13 | 5 Mirage 13-5 | 19 | Split | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-04 | MOUZ | 1 Cache 4-13 | 6 Mirage 7-13 | 7 | L | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-03 | BetBoom | 10 Mirage 13-5 | 22 Cache 16-14 | 32 | W | Over ✗ | OTBO |
| 2026-09-20 | Vitality | 7 Cache 5-13 | 6 Anubis 8-13 | 13 | L | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-19 | MIBR | 17 Mirage 13-8 | 10 Nuke 13-11 | 27 | W | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-09-19 | MOUZ | 7 Cache 13-8 | 15 Mirage 16-19 | 22 | Split | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-09-18 | Vitality | 6 Mirage 8-13 | 11 Dust2 5-13 | 17 | L | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-17 | MIBR | 9 Inferno 11-13 | 7 Nuke 13-6 | 16 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-09-11 | G2 | 8 Ancient 14-16 | 6 Dust2 3-13 | 14 | L | Under ✓ | OTBO |
| 2026-09-10 | Legacy | 11 Mirage 7-13 | 7 Ancient 9-13 | 18 | L | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-09-09 | PARIVISION | 11 Ancient 13-2 | 8 Inferno 13-11 | 19 | W | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-08 | GamerLegion | 9 Cache 11-13 | 15 Mirage 13-10 | 24 | Split | Over ✗ |








































































































































































