KillsRisk
Line
31
Pick
OVER
Projection
31.9
Hit
54.3%
EV+
-6.0%
Edge
+0.9
L10
50%
HeadshotsBetter playRisk
Line
10.5
Pick
OVER
Projection
11.28
Hit
60.3%
EV+
+4.4%
Edge
+0.8
L10
60%

AWPer
sh1ro
Team Spirit vs BetBoom
RISK · OVER 31
BEST OVER · UD 30.5PP31UD30.5
▼ L5 28.2 · L20 31.6Risk · Edge +0.9 far below ±3.0
Hit rates at 31 (Over)
L5
20%
1/5
L10
50%
5/10
L20
60%
12/20
H2H
N/A
Volatility
Low
±5.57
Previous meeting · vs BetBoom
No meeting with BetBoom in his last 20 series.
LAN vs online form
LAN · this match
31.6
12/20 hit at 31
Online
—
no series
Avg kills on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Veto confirmed — re-check map order
- Confirm sh1ro is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 31
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 66.5%
prizepicks · Kills · Maps 1-2Risk
What to watch · Needs 32+ kills: 0.7 KPR over ~44 rounds. Main danger: a fast 2-0 (7.8%) or blowout (20.5%) cuts rounds.
Side
Over
Projection
31.9
Raw edge
+0.9
Cons. hit
54.3%
EV+
-6.0%
Rating
2.9/10
Exp. rounds
44.3
Line
31
Verdict
Risk
Plain model
54.3%
+3.9 →
Learned
58.2%
what past results change
learning 1x
learning 1x
Same-line track record · Over 29-33
All players · Kills
56.3%215 picks
This player
0%1 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 56.4% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±3 (pref ±4)
- Edge +0.9 below ±3.0 minimum
- EV+ not positive at current payout
- L10 hit rate ≥ 60%: L10 50.0% at this line
Sharp checks · 5/6
Big enough sample · 20 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60% · L10 50.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55% · L20 60.0% at this line
Game script fits · 2-0 sweep 8% (Overs need rounds)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
Projection = 70% model (33.48) + 30% last-5 average
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 31.7 kills vs line 31.5 (5/10 over). KPR 0.74, HS 36%. Next: vs BetBoom, LAN.
Strongest: L10 average 31.7 against a 31.5 line
Biggest risk: Normal CS2 variance
The read
Signal
MIXED
The call
PASS
Value
NO VALUE
- • Model 31.9 vs line 31 → +0.9 (2.9%)
- • Form L5 20% · L10 50% over this line
- • Slight lean (40–45% / 65–70%) → no adjustment
- • Expected 44.3 rounds · 2-0 7.8% · OT 7.8%
Performance (last 40 maps)
Kills/Map
15.8
HS/Map
5.7
K/D
1.29
KPR
0.74
ADR
75.8
KAST
73.7%
HS%
36.1%
Multi-kill
17.5%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Anubis)16.5 · KPR 0.721 · 22.7r
Map 2 (Ancient)17 · KPR 0.78 · 21.6r
Required KPR to clear0.7
Base kills (Maps 1-2)33.21
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.+0.81%
Final projected kills33.48
BetBoom gives up (64 series)+2.7% vs norm
Likely kills totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Over 31. Model: 56.4% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps20.5%
~27 kills · 37r18.5%
Normal44.5%
~32 kills · 44r50.4%
Close maps27.2%
~34 kills · 47r66.1%
Overtime7.8%
~39 kills · 53r86.5%
Match context
Oct 24, 10:40 AMLANPGL Masters Bucharest 2026
Win chance source: Polymarket 66.5%
Slight lean (40–45% / 65–70%) → no adjustment
Game scriptIdeal Over range — team 66% to win (40-70%), competitive maps expected.
M1 Anubis
22.7r
-3% KPR here
M2 Ancient
21.6r
+5% KPR here
Total
44.3r
2-0 sweep7.8%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)35%
Overtime7.8%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)20.5%
Veto confirmed (bo3.gg): Anubis / Ancient
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 31 (Over) · avg 31.7 · hit 5/10 · tap a bar
31
Nearby lines
| 29 Over | 62% | |
| 30 Over | 58% | |
| 31 Over | 54.3% | OFFERED |
| 32 Over | 50.1% | below BE |
| 33 Over | 39.8% | below BE |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 31
Line movement
first 31.5→31-0.5
- Back on board31.5 → 31Oct 24, 09:06 PM
- Pulled31.5Oct 24, 10:03 AM
- First seen31.5Oct 24, 12:00 AM
Map stats
Dust2
12 maps
Kills
15.7
KPR
0.72
HS%
37.2%
K/D
1.29
Cache
7 maps
Kills
13.4
KPR
0.64
HS%
37.2%
K/D
1.12
Mirage
7 maps
Kills
15.1
KPR
0.72
HS%
35.8%
K/D
1.16
Ancient
6 maps
Kills
17.3
KPR
0.8
HS%
32.7%
K/D
1.62
Anubis
5 maps
Kills
16.6
KPR
0.71
HS%
36.1%
K/D
1.34
Nuke
3 maps
Kills
19
KPR
0.76
HS%
36.8%
K/D
1.33
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-11 | Aurora | 16 Mirage 9-13 | 14 Anubis 6-13 | 30 | L | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-10-10 | MOUZ | 14 Dust2 7-13 | 12 Mirage 13-5 | 26 | Split | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-09 | Falcons | 12 Mirage 13-8 | 17 Anubis 13-10 | 29 | W | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-10-07 | M80 | 15 Dust2 13-6 | 18 Cache 13-10 | 33 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-10-06 | 1win | 9 Cache 5-13 | 14 Anubis 9-13 | 23 | L | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-05 | MOUZ | 12 Dust2 5-13 | 17 Mirage 11-13 | 29 | L | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-04 | PARIVISION | 18 Ancient 11-13 | 15 Dust2 13-6 | 33 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-10-03 | ShindeN | 18 Dust2 11-13 | 19 Nuke 13-11 | 37 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-09-06 | MOUZ | 19 Dust2 13-8 | 25 Mirage 11-13 | 44 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-09-05 | Falcons | 17 Nuke 13-8 | 16 Ancient 13-11 | 33 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-08-31 | FURIA | 20 Ancient 13-10 | 16 Cache 13-5 | 36 | W | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-08-28 | G2 | 11 Dust2 13-6 | 18 Cache 13-9 | 29 | W | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-08-26 | DENDELE | 15 Ancient 13-8 | 11 Cache 13-7 | 26 | W | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-08-23 | FUT | 10 Cache 10-13 | 24 Anubis 16-13 | 34 | Split | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-08-22 | Legacy | 14 Dust2 13-7 | 23 Ancient 13-9 | 37 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-08-21 | Vitality | 14 Anubis 13-11 | 21 Nuke 14-16 | 35 | Split | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-08-20 | B8 | 16 Dust2 13-9 | 17 Mirage 13-9 | 33 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-08-15 | BIG | 12 Cache 9-13 | 20 Dust2 13-10 | 32 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-08-13 | Luminosity | 12 Ancient 13-3 | 25 Dust2 19-15 | 37 | W | Over ✓ | OTBO |
| 2026-08-02 | MOUZ | 9 Dust2 8-13 | 7 Mirage 4-13 | 16 | L | Under ✗ | BO |







































































































































































