KillsRisk
Line
25.5
Pick
OVER
Projection
25.9
Hit
46.2%
EV+
-19.9%
Edge
+0.4
L10
50%
HeadshotsBetter playRisk
Line
13.5
Pick
OVER
Projection
13.94
Hit
52.3%
EV+
-9.3%
Edge
+0.4
L10
70%

Rifler
Jerr1
MEIA NOITE vs Tropa do KinGui
RISK · OVER 25.5
▲ L5 28.6 · L20 25.2Risk · Edge +0.4 far below ±3.0 +1
Hit rates at 25.5 (Over)
L5
60%
3/5
L10
50%
5/10
L20
47%
8/17
H2H
N/A
Volatility
Low
±5.84
Previous meeting · vs Tropa do KinGui
No meeting with Tropa do KinGui in his last 17 series.
LAN vs online form
LAN
—
no series
Online · this match
25.2
8/17 hit at 25.5
Avg kills on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm Jerr1 is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 25.5
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 35.0%
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
underdog · Kills · Maps 1-2Risk
What to watch · Needs 26+ kills: 0.625 KPR over ~41 rounds. Main danger: a fast 2-0 (47%) or blowout (25%) cuts rounds.
Side
Over
Projection
25.9
Raw edge
+0.4
Cons. hit
46.2%
EV+
-19.9%
Rating
1/10
Exp. rounds
40.8
Line
25.5
Verdict
Risk
Plain model
46.2%
-2.7 →
Learned
43.5%
what past results change
learning 1x
learning 1x
Same-line track record · Over 23.5-27.5
All players · Kills
57%207 picks
This player
—0 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 52.7% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±3 (pref ±4)
- Edge +0.4 below ±3.0 minimum
- EV+ not positive at current payout
- L10 hit rate ≥ 60%: L10 50.0% at this line
- L20 hit rate ≥ 55%: L20 47.1% at this line
- Blowout loss risk — team only 35% to win. Big underdogs often lose maps 13-3 and the Over dies (e.g. Temny Prince: 9 kills in a 3-13 map 1). Over is penalised and can't be a Take.
Sharp checks · 4/6
Big enough sample · 17 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60% · L10 50.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55% · L20 47.1% at this line
Game script fits · 2-0 sweep 47% (Overs need rounds)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
Projection = 70% model (24.75) + 30% last-5 average
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 26.2 kills vs line 25.5 (5/10 over). KPR 0.62, HS 54%. Next: vs Tropa do KinGui, Online.
Strongest: L10 average 26.2 against a 25.5 line
Biggest risk: Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
PARTIAL
The call
PASS
Value
NO VALUE
- • Model 25.9 vs line 25.5 → +0.4 (1.6%)
- • Form L5 60% · L10 50% over this line
- • Underdog (≤40%) → fewer rounds (−1/map) and fewer kills (−6% KPR)
- • Expected 40.8 rounds · 2-0 47% · OT 11.5%
Performance (last 34 maps)
Kills/Map
12.62
HS/Map
6.79
K/D
0.89
KPR
0.62
ADR
68.1
KAST
73.4%
HS%
53.8%
Multi-kill
13.6%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Ancient)12.6 · KPR 0.619 · 20.5r
Map 2 (Dust2)12.1 · KPR 0.599 · 20.3r
Required KPR to clear0.625
Base kills (Maps 1-2)24.83
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.-0.36%
Final projected kills24.75
Likely kills totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Over 25.5. Model: 52.7% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps25%
~22 kills · 34r21.2%
Normal35%
~26 kills · 40r48.9%
Close maps28.5%
~28 kills · 44r64.9%
Overtime11.5%
~32 kills · 50r85.4%
Match context
Oct 24, 04:00 PMOnline CCT South America 2026 Series 7
Win chance source: Polymarket 35.0%
Underdog (≤40%) → fewer rounds (−1/map) and fewer kills (−6% KPR)
⚠ Blowout riskBlowout loss risk — team only 35% to win. Big underdogs often lose maps 13-3 and the Over dies (e.g. Temny Prince: 9 kills in a 3-13 map 1). Over is penalised and can't be a Take.
M1 Ancient
20.5r
+7% KPR here
M2 Dust2
20.3r
+3% KPR here
Total
40.8r
2-0 sweep47%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)40%
Overtime11.5%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)25%
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Ancient / Dust2
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 25.5 (Over) · avg 26.2 · hit 5/10 · tap a bar
25.5
Nearby lines
| 23.5 Over | 59% | |
| 24.5 Over | 52.1% | below BE |
| 25.5 Over | 46.2% | OFFERED |
| 26.5 Over | 42.2% | below BE |
| 27.5 Over | 36.3% | below BE |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 25.5
Line movement
first 25.5→offno change
- Pulled25.5Oct 24, 04:12 PM
- Back on board25.5 → 25.5Oct 24, 12:53 PM
- Pulled25.5Oct 24, 12:53 PM
- First seen25.5Oct 24, 12:52 PM
Map stats
Ancient
11 maps
Kills
14.4
KPR
0.67
HS%
57.6%
K/D
1.02
Dust2
10 maps
Kills
13.7
KPR
0.64
HS%
56.2%
K/D
1.01
Nuke
4 maps
Kills
12.5
KPR
0.56
HS%
50%
K/D
0.82
Cache
3 maps
Kills
10
KPR
0.47
HS%
46.7%
K/D
0.71
Inferno
3 maps
Kills
9
KPR
0.51
HS%
40.7%
K/D
0.61
Mirage
3 maps
Kills
9
KPR
0.45
HS%
48.1%
K/D
0.6
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-22 | Procyon | 4 Inferno 2-13 | 20 Dust2 13-9 | 24 | Split | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-10 | Galorys | 9 Dust2 13-8 | 13 Ancient 6-13 | 22 | Split | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-10-09 | ALKA | 15 Ancient 13-6 | 12 Dust2 13-8 | 27 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-10-08 | QUINTESSÊNCIA | 16 Inferno 10-13 | 20 Ancient 13-10 | 36 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-09-30 | METANOIA Wolves | 11 Ancient 6-13 | 23 Dust2 13-11 | 34 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-09-29 | ALKA | 3 Nuke 7-13 | 11 Dust2 9-13 | 14 | L | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-09-26 | QUINTESSÊNCIA | 12 Dust2 13-4 | 12 Ancient 13-8 | 24 | W | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-25 | ALKA | 10 Nuke 13-10 | 18 Dust2 12-16 | 28 | Split | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-09-24 | Low Cortisol BR | 12 Ancient 8-13 | 16 Dust2 13-6 | 28 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-09-22 | Turma do Pagode | 17 Nuke 11-13 | 8 Dust2 11-13 | 25 | L | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-09-22 | Mira | 8 Dust2 2-13 | 28 Ancient 16-12 | 36 | Split | Over ✓ | OTBO |
| 2026-09-19 | QUINTESSÊNCIA | 7 Ancient 8-13 | 16 Cache 13-16 | 23 | L | Under ✗ | OT |
| 2026-09-03 | Bounty Hunters | 4 Cache 4-13 | 9 Mirage 8-13 | 13 | L | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-02 | Grêmio | 20 Nuke 13-9 | 15 Ancient 11-13 | 35 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-09-01 | Procyon | 12 Ancient 10-13 | 7 Inferno 2-13 | 19 | L | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-08-27 | ex-MIBR Academy | 13 Ancient 5-13 | 15 Mirage 13-16 | 28 | L | Over ✓ | OTBO |
| 2026-08-27 | Sementes do Mal | 10 Cache 13-5 | 3 Mirage 4-6 | 13 | W | Under ✗ | BO |









































































































































































