KillsRisk
Line
26.5
Pick
OVER
Projection
28.53
Hit
58.8%
EV+
+1.8%
Edge
+2.0
L10
90%
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AWPer
MITHPUTTINI
Grêmio vs Yawara Esports
RISK · OVER 26.5
≈ L5 31.0 · L20 31.3Risk · Edge +2.0 far below ±3.0 +1
Hit rates at 26.5 (Over)
L5
100%
5/5
L10
90%
9/10
L20
73%
11/15
H2H
100%
2/2
Volatility
Low
±6.31
Previous meeting · vs Yawara Esports
2/2 hit · avg 31 kills on Maps 1-2
2026-10-08 · ESL Challenger League Season 52: South America - Cup 3
Nuke 16-19 · Mirage 10-13 · L
31
Over 26.5 ✓
2026-09-25 · ESL Challenger League Season 52: South America - Cup 2
Nuke 9-13 · Mirage 13-11 · Split
31
Over 26.5 ✓
LAN vs online form
LAN
—
no series
Online · this match
31.3
11/15 hit at 26.5
Avg kills on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm MITHPUTTINI is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 26.5
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 31.5%
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
underdog · Kills · Maps 1-2Risk
What to watch · Needs 27+ kills: 0.584 KPR over ~45 rounds. Main danger: a fast 2-0 (75%) or blowout (25.6%) cuts rounds.
Side
Over
Projection
28.53
Raw edge
+2.0
Cons. hit
58.8%
EV+
+1.8%
Rating
5.5/10
Exp. rounds
45.4
Line
26.5
Verdict
Risk
Plain model
58.8%
+1.1 →
Learned
59.9%
what past results change
learning 1x
learning 1x
Same-line track record · Over 24.5-28.5
All players · Kills
56%273 picks
This player
0%1 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 62.6% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±3 (pref ±4)
- Edge +2.0 below ±3.0 minimum
- Game script fits: 2-0 sweep 75% (Overs need rounds)
- Blowout loss risk — team only 32% to win. Big underdogs often lose maps 13-3 and the Over dies (e.g. Temny Prince: 9 kills in a 3-13 map 1). Over is penalised and can't be a Take.
Sharp checks · 5/6
Big enough sample · 15 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60% · L10 90.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55% · L20 73.3% at this line
Game script fits · 2-0 sweep 75% (Overs need rounds)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
Projection = 70% model (27.47) + 30% last-5 average
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 32.5 kills vs line 26.5 (9/10 over). KPR 0.66, HS 33%. Next: vs Yawara, Online.
Strongest: L10 average 32.5 against a 26.5 line
Biggest risk: High 2-0 sweep chance (75%) — fewer total rounds
- High 2-0 sweep chance (75%) — fewer total rounds
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
PARTIAL
The call
PASS
Value
THIN
- • Model 28.53 vs line 26.5 → +2.03 (7.7%)
- • Form L5 100% · L10 90% over this line
- • Underdog (≤40%) → fewer rounds (−1/map) and fewer kills (−6% KPR)
- • Expected 45.4 rounds · 2-0 75% · OT 12.9%
Performance (last 30 maps)
Kills/Map
15.67
HS/Map
5.2
K/D
1.11
KPR
0.66
ADR
66.7
KAST
70.5%
HS%
33.2%
Multi-kill
15.8%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Inferno)13.5 · KPR 0.633 · 21.5r
Map 2 (Ancient)14 · KPR 0.593 · 23.9r
Required KPR to clear0.584
Base kills (Maps 1-2)27.78
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.-1.11%
Final projected kills27.47
Yawara Esports gives up (52 series)+7.2% vs norm
Likely kills totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Over 26.5. Model: 62.6% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps25.6%
~24 kills · 38r29.7%
Normal35.5%
~28 kills · 45r61.5%
Close maps26%
~31 kills · 49r75.7%
Overtime12.9%
~34 kills · 55r90.7%
Match context
Oct 24, 10:00 PMOnline CCT South America 2026 Series 7
Win chance source: Polymarket 31.5%
Underdog (≤40%) → fewer rounds (−1/map) and fewer kills (−6% KPR)
⚠ Blowout riskBlowout loss risk — team only 32% to win. Big underdogs often lose maps 13-3 and the Over dies (e.g. Temny Prince: 9 kills in a 3-13 map 1). Over is penalised and can't be a Take.
M1 Inferno
21.5r
+2% KPR here
M2 Ancient
23.9r
-4% KPR here
Total
45.4r
2-0 sweep75%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)38.9%
Overtime12.9%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)25.6%
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Inferno / Ancient
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 26.5 (Over) · avg 32.5 · hit 9/10 · tap a bar
26.5
Nearby lines
| 24.5 Over | 62.8% | |
| 25.5 Over | 61.1% | |
| 26.5 Over | 58.8% | OFFERED |
| 27.5 Over | 55.9% | below BE |
| 28.5 Over | 52.4% | below BE |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 26.5
Line movement
first 26.5→offno change
- Pulled32.5Oct 24, 10:00 PM
- Moved up30.5 → 32.5Oct 24, 09:58 PM
- Moved up28.5 → 30.5Oct 24, 08:50 PM
- Moved up27.5 → 28.5Oct 24, 08:22 PM
- Moved up26.5 → 27.5Oct 24, 08:01 PM
- Back on board26.5 → 26.5Oct 24, 12:53 PM
- Pulled26.5Oct 24, 12:53 PM
- First seen26.5Oct 24, 12:52 PM
Map stats
Inferno
9 maps
Kills
15.4
KPR
0.68
HS%
35.3%
K/D
1.34
Ancient
6 maps
Kills
16.5
KPR
0.62
HS%
24.2%
K/D
1.05
Mirage
5 maps
Kills
14.8
KPR
0.72
HS%
39.2%
K/D
1.17
Nuke
5 maps
Kills
12.8
KPR
0.54
HS%
32.8%
K/D
0.81
Cache
4 maps
Kills
17.8
KPR
0.72
HS%
33.8%
K/D
1.13
Dust2
1 maps
Kills
23
KPR
0.96
HS%
39.1%
K/D
1.21
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-22 | Low Cortisol BR | 15 Mirage 13-3 | 17 Cache 10-13 | 32 | Split | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-20 | JOGA DE TERNO | 15 Inferno 13-5 | 16 Ancient 13-11 | 31 | W | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-13 | Los Niños | 15 Mirage 9-13 | 15 Inferno 13-5 | 30 | Split | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-09 | BORRACHEIROS | 15 Inferno 10-13 | 16 Mirage 5-13 | 31 | L | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-08 | Yawara | 22 Nuke 16-19 | 9 Mirage 10-13 | 31 | L | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-10-07 | Galorys | 11 Inferno 13-11 | 39 Ancient 28-25 | 50 | W | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-10-02 | Galorys | 21 Inferno 16-19 | 13 Ancient 9-13 | 34 | L | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-09-30 | QUINTESSÊNCIA | 6 Inferno 13-7 | 25 Cache 17-19 | 31 | Split | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-09-29 | Procyon | 20 Inferno 10-13 | 4 Nuke 3-13 | 24 | L | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-25 | Yawara | 12 Nuke 9-13 | 19 Mirage 13-11 | 31 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-09-24 | your end | 12 Cache 13-7 | 8 Ancient 13-1 | 20 | W | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-23 | Isurus | 16 Inferno 13-7 | 17 Cache 7-13 | 33 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-09-23 | ALKA | 14 Nuke 13-11 | 10 Ancient 10-13 | 24 | Split | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-09-22 | Keyd Stars | 20 Inferno 11-13 | 23 Dust2 11-13 | 43 | L | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-09-02 | MEIA NOITE | 12 Nuke 9-13 | 13 Ancient 13-11 | 25 | Split | Under ✗ |









































































































































































